IMF: Europe's GDP Losses Associated with a Russian Gas Embargo

As Ukraine conflict has placed natural gas supply in Europe at risk, IMF analysed the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and economic output. Here are key finding.

• The most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe — Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czechia — face a risk of shortages of as much as 40 percent of gas consumption and of gross domestic product shrinking by up to 6 percent.
• The effects on Austria, Germany and Italy would also be significant, but would depend on the exact nature of remaining bottlenecks at the time of the shutoff and consequently the ability of the market to adjust.
• Many other countries are unlikely to face such constraints and the impact on GDP would be moderate—possibly under 1 percent.