Metals Price Rally: Five Indicators to Watch

(18 June 2021) Uneven post-covid recovery, supply shortages, and tens of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus have resulted in a price rally in commodity markets, including prices for industrial metals. The question that investors are asking today is how long the price rally will last. The short answer: We don't know. Instead of making predictions on prices, in this dashboard we have put together a set of indicators for your exploration and analysis. Several of these indicators hint at a possible future reversal in price trends.

Each of the five indicators on this page explores a different angle on trends impacting metals pricing:

• Global electric vehicle sales — reflects the speed of energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. IEA estimates that the transition to green energy will result in a multiple-fold increase in global demand for industrial metals and critical minerals in the next 20 years.
• Industrial production in China — indicates the state of demand for intermediates (including energy, raw materials and industrial metals) in the world's largest economy.
• Global trade movement (measured by global exports and container throughput) — represents the general health of the global economy and development of global supply chains.
• Gold to copper price ratio — an indicator that reflects the preference of investors between risk and defensive assets.
• Uncertainty index — summarizes the expectations of economic agents about short-term growth trends.