US Election 2020 Forecast: Anyone's Guess?

(29 October 2020) If you've been following the latest forecasts from The Economist and Columbia University, Donald Trump has a small probability (3.5%) of winning the electoral college to be re-elected in November. The model is designed to predict the chances of winning the electoral-college on election day, as Trump did in 2016 even though he failed to win the popular vote, and currently gives Joe Biden an 96 percent probability of defeating Donald Trump and better than 19 in 20 chances of winning the popular vote. 

Reliability of polling data doesn't stop the polling and it's fascinating to follow along, particular with some players you may be less familiar with showing better predictive results. Look at the last election. Even in late October while early voters were casting their votes, the 2016 election polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 percentage points.

• Based on the latest poll averages in the current election from RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and The Economist, Joe Biden currently has a 1 to 11 percentage point advantage over Donald Trump. Political betting markets, such as PredictIt and Iowa Electronic Markets, also suggest a substantial advantage of Biden.
• The stock market, in turn, predicts that Donald Trump is poised for re-election.
• At the same time, RIWI—a company that offers predictive analytics and trend tracking—reveals that neither party has established a clear leadership position so far.