(01 November 2021) According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in Q3 2021 U.S. GDP growth decelerated, dropping to only 2% over the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Detailed National Income and Product Accounts data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics helps to explain why real GDP growth in July through September 2021 was less than a third of the growth rates in Q1 and Q2.

  • Slowdown in Q3 real GDP growth was caused mostly by deceleration in personal consumer spending. In Q3 2021 personal consumption, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. GDP, contributed only 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, compared to 7.4 and 7.9 percentage point contributions in Q1 and Q2 2021.
  • The detailed BEA data shows that the deceleration in personal consumption was mostly related to a decrease in durable goods consumer spending. This decrease alone subtracted 2.7 percentage points from the U.S. real GDP growth in Q3.  The decline in personal durables purchases was mainly caused by a drop in sales of motor vehicles amid supply chain disruptions and the Delta variant surge. Personal consumption of recreational goods and of furnishings and household equipment also contracted slightly.
  • Meanwhile, expectations for Q4 real GDP growth remain high. Based on currently available data for the main high-frequency indicators, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atalanta estimates U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2021 of 6.6% SAAR.

Coronavirus Data and Insights

Live data and insights on Coronavirus around the world, including detailed statistics for the US, EU, and China — confirmed and recovered cases, deaths, alternative data on economic activities, customer behavior, supply chains, and more.

Percepções Relacionadas de Knoema

How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020?

For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of...

US Purchasing Managers Index Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction

In August, US manufacturing activity contracted 2.1 points from July, the largest contraction in nearly three years. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) - commonly referred to as the ISM manufacturing index - fell to 49.1, making the US a late comer to a growing club of large economies, such as China, the Eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, that have likewise reported contracting manufacturing sectors in recent months. The PMI is being dragged down by a sharp decline in new orders, non-farm employment (which increased by...

IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus

(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report: The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated...

Knoema Global Economic Outlook | Q2 2020 Explained

(14 October 2020) The corona-crisis is different from past economic recessions in that it has touched all economies without exception. But if we look from economy to economy, we quickly observe that the economic consequences of the corona-crisis are far from uniform. To understand why, for example, GDP in Korea dropped just 2.8% YoY in Q2 2020 while India experienced a 23.9% YoY contraction, we collected key macroeconomic indicators for Q2 2020 for the world's 15 largest economies. At first blush the data was disappointing, because the economic strain appeared again to be rather...