IMF October 2021 Outlook | Robust Expansion Despite Rising Inflation

(14 October 2021) The mid-term prospects for the development of the global economy look promising — the International Monetary Fund projects that almost 6% global GDP growth in 2021 and almost 5% growth in 2022 will be followed with annual growth above 3% in 2023 through 2026. However, uncertainty around inflation pressure and the pandemic situation are considered major risks for global growth. Here are the key takeaways from the October 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:

• October 2021 global growth projections by the IMF were nearly unchanged from the summer outlook. The global GDP growth estimate for 2021 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9%, underlining the negative impact of global supply chain disruptions and worsening pandemic dynamics. The forecast for 2022 global growth is unchanged, at 4.9%.
• Looking into 2022, the IMF expects that commodity prices will stay at 2021 levels, while global food prices will see further increases.
• In addition to commodity prices staying high, CPI inflation is expected to accelerate. In 2021–2022, the IMF anticipates annual CPI growth over 4% in more than 70 countries, compared to 54 countries in 2020 (out of 190 countries in the IMF's WEO Outlook database).
• So far, the IMF considers the recent increases in inflation rates in the US, Europe, and many developing economies to be driven by temporary pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches. The inflation pressure is expected to subside in 2022, though uncertainty around inflation prospects remains high.