Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Vulnerability

Tightening monetary policy by largest Central Banks, high fuel and food prices, as well as a slowdown in the global economy put many emerging economies at risk of default on sovereign debt service. In May 2022 Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time. To find out which other countries are at risk of default, Bloomberg created the ranking of Emerging Markets sovereign debt vulnerability based on four indicators:

  • Government bond yields (the weighted-average yield of the country’s dollar bonds)
  • 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread
  • Interest expense as a percentage of GDP
  • Government debt as a percentage of GDP

According to Bloomberg estimates El Salvador has the highest risk of default mostly because of its larger interest expense and total government debt.

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