Knoema.com - United States http://pt.knoema.com 2024-03-14T10:32:54Z /favicon.png Knoema é o seu caminho pessoal do conhecimento United States Coal: Revival or Decline? //pt.knoema.com/qmfwmqc/united-states-coal-revival-or-decline 2024-03-14T10:32:54Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States Coal: Revival or Decline?

In March, US President Donald Trump issued the “Energy Independence” executive order, requiring the US Environmental Protection Agency to rewrite the Clean Power Plan, a keystone of former President Obama’s efforts to address climate change. According to experts from the Trump administration, rejecting federal support for alternative energy and delaying the full transition of the US economy to renewable resources will reduce the US budget by approximately 18 percent. According to Trump, his order represents a historic step toward removing restrictions on US energy and abandoning the rules that cut jobs in the industry. Just as the previous administration touted the employment opportunities of green energy development, the Trump administration is tying new growth in the coal industry to future job growth. Under the Obama administration, the US coal industry experienced a perfect storm of regulatory pressure and competition with falling natural gas prices and increasing renewable power generation capacity. During President Obama’s second term from 2012 to 2016, total US coal production declined by more than 25 percent.  In 2016, total production fell to its lowest level in 30 years.  While the executive order may seek to revive the coal industry by allowing development of US coal deposits, the US will face challenges meeting the order’s twin aims for energy self-sufficiency and a zero trade balance. The US will have to compete for market share with other coal producers during a period when forecasts show production of coal globally will outstrip growth in coal consumption. China and the US are both coal giants. For the last 20 years, China has been the world's largest coal producer and consumer, claiming roughly 45 percent of marketed coal annually. The US proved coal reserves, however, exceed 235 billion tonnes, about double China’s proved reserves.According to the latest energy outlook from BP, global coal consumption will grow by roughly 1.5 percent by 2020, yet the supply is expected to outstrip demand by 2035.In addition to potentially contributing to a slump in coal prices, the order flies in the face of science by not only supporting coal but by also lifting restrictions on methane emissions from oil and gas development sites. Methane, like CO2, is a greenhouse gas, which is proven to contribute to global warming.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Unemployment Forecast 2021-2026 | Data and Charts //pt.knoema.com/ennihcf/us-unemployment-forecast-2021-2026-data-and-charts 2024-01-25T13:53:12Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Unemployment Forecast 2021-2026 | Data and Charts

(14 June 2021) In 2020, the US unemployment rate averaged 8.1%, the highest annual rate since 2012. In January and February of last year, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at a 50-year low of 3.5%, but unemployment soared to 14.7% in April 2020 due to mass layoffs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. US unemployment declined steadily in the second half of last year and has continued a gradual downward trend this spring. In May 2021 it reached 5.8%, which is 56% lower than the year before and equals the unemployment level of 2014. Here are the US unemployment rate projections from the four leading sources:According to the economic projections of the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate in the US will average at 4.5% by the end of 2021 and pursue its fall in 2022 and 2023, reaching  3.8% and 3.5% levels correspondingly.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the unemployment rate will decrease to 5.8% in 2021 and continue to fall in the following two years, hitting the pre-pandemic level of 3.7% in 2023.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its current Economic Outlook expects the rate of unemployment to drop to 5.6% in 2021 and then remain on a downward trend, falling to 4.3% by 2022.The European Commission in its spring Economic Forecast projects that the US unemployment rate will decline to 4.6% in 2021, and then to 3.4% in 2022, dropping below the unemployment rate before the pandemic. For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page: US | Canada | Mexico | France | Germany | UK | Italy | Brazil | Argentina | Turkey | Australia | China | India | Japan | South Korea | Indonesia | Russia | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | EU | Euro Area Or, select an economic indicator: GDP Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Unemployment Forecast | Current Account Balance Forecast | Government Debt Forecast

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US State Level Income Inequality //pt.knoema.com/aptxluf/us-state-level-income-inequality 2023-12-30T07:36:44Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US State Level Income Inequality

Rising income inequality in the United States over the past quarter century is well documented. For the vast majority of states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. And the most interesting fact that the rising income inequality has positive correlation with the growth of real personal per capita income. Frank, Mark. W. 2009 "Inequality and Growth in the United States: Evidence from a New State-Level Panel of Income Inequality Measure" Economic Inquiry, Volume 47, Issue 1, Pages 55-68  

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Inflation Forecast: 2022, 2023 and Long Term to 2030 | Data and Charts //pt.knoema.com/kyaewad/us-inflation-forecast-2022-2023-and-long-term-to-2030-data-and-charts 2023-11-09T13:09:20Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Inflation Forecast: 2022, 2023 and Long Term to 2030 | Data and Charts

(November 1, 2022) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in its latest meeting on September 21, 2022, forecasted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate in the United States will average at 5.4% in 2022, and then decline to 2.8% in 2023. The FOMC — the US Federal Reserve System's monetary policymaking body, which seeks to foster price stability — publishes inflation projections from its twelve members four times a year, in conjunction with their meetings in March, June, September, and December. PCE inflation refers to the percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. It is used by the Federal Reserve as a primary measure of inflation in determining inflation goals. Other agencies such as the International Monetary Fund, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, European Commission, and U.S. Department of Agriculture give inflation forecasts in terms of Consumer Price Index (CPI). Due to the differences in the "baskets" of goods considered, the two inflation measures are not identical: since 1970, CPI inflation has been an average of 0.5 percentage points higher than PCE inflation. Different agencies' predictions differ, putting US CPI inflation within the range of 7.0% to 8.1% percent in 2022 and around 2.8-3.5% in 2023. All agencies predicted that CPI inflation in 2023 will be 0.8-1.5% higher compared to the Federal Reserve target of 2%. By 2025, CPI inflation in the US is expected to return to 2%. The inflation rate depends on the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand within the economy. Labor market conditions and inflation expectations are the major demand side forces: a decrease in the unemployment rate means number of employees increases, which, in turn, increases demand and inflation.According to the survey of economists by FocusEconomics, CPI inflation is expected to average 8.0% in 2022.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in September 2022 the US unemployment rate was 3.5%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than a year before.One-year inflation expectations decreased to 5.4% in September 2022 in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations compared to 6.8% in June 2022.US GDP, representing the country's aggregate demand, increased at annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).Current US CPI inflation, which is released monthly by the US BLS, averaged 8.2% in September 2022. The US PCE inflation rate released by BEA for Q3 2022 was 4.2% on average.   For analysis of the other G20 economies, select a country page: US | Canada | Mexico | France | Germany | UK | Italy | Brazil | Argentina | Turkey | Australia | China | India | Japan | South Korea | Indonesia | Russia | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | EU | Euro Area Or, select an economic indicator: GDP Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Unemployment Forecast | Current Account Balance Forecast | Government Debt Forecast

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Student Loan Debt Accumulation Showing No Signs of Slowing //pt.knoema.com/wllxncd/us-student-loan-debt-accumulation-showing-no-signs-of-slowing 2023-10-07T17:48:00Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Student Loan Debt Accumulation Showing No Signs of Slowing

(January 19, 2019) Student loans in the United States represent the second largest type of household debt after home mortgages and were not only impervious to the 2009 recession, but are steadily rising along with total US household debt. As of the third quarter of 2018, student debt outstanding expanded by 2.6 percent, reaching a peak of $1.44 trillion, which is higher than total US auto loans and credit card debt.Total student loan debt has more than doubled since 2009 and grown six-fold over the last 15 years. The cumulative value of student loans in default has also increased, jumping almost 90 percent during the last five years to a record $168 billion.  Such rapid debt growth is traced in part to the nature of the benefits of student loan the payments. US federal student loan benefits include fixed interest rates, income-driven repayment plans, and the possibility to postpone or temporarily reduce payments. Student loans can be postponed, temporarily suspended, or reduced as a result of certain life circumstances, such as returning to school, being unemployed, military service, or economic hardship. In addition, undergraduate students who demonstrate financial need may qualify for subsidized loans.As of the fourth quarter of 2018, the 53 million recipients of student loans owed a total of $1.43 trillion, yet only half of these recipients were in active repayment status. In addition, $4.9 billion worth of student loans entered into default status during the fourth quarter. Looking back further, after 2012, the amount of seriously delinquent student loans—more than 90 days overdue—soared, hitting 11.5 percent of aggregate student debt in the third quarter of 2018, the highest value among all household debt types.The options to postpone or temporarily reduce payments has driven a dramatic extension of repayment periods and consequently the accumulation of outstanding debt. According to the US Department of Education, only 38 percent of borrowers who began their secondary educations during the 1995-1996 academic year had paid off all federal loans without default within 20 years. Student loans help nearly two in every 10 American students get an education, the benefits of which cannot be quantified. The rapid growth of outstanding debt coupled with persistent difficulties paying it off, however, not only causes people to delay decisions about buying a house, getting married, and having children, but it also affects government budget sustainability, making this a concern for all Americans, debt carrying or not. Over 90 percent of all student debt is ensured by the US federal government, suggesting that the federal budget will suffer from the consequences of unemployment that contributes to default in addition to the large-scale student loan defaults.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
U.S and International Travelers' Direct Spending in the U.S. //pt.knoema.com/pqgwicd/u-s-and-international-travelers-direct-spending-in-the-u-s 2023-08-04T14:55:25Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S and International Travelers' Direct Spending in the U.S.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Inflation Trends: Like Coffee? Get Ready to Pay More //pt.knoema.com/qemlhre/u-s-inflation-trends-like-coffee-get-ready-to-pay-more 2023-07-30T20:18:15Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Inflation Trends: Like Coffee? Get Ready to Pay More

(19 October 2021) Through June-September of 2021, consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, which was the highest monthly growth rate in the last 12 years. Not all consumer goods were affected by price increases equally. For example, used car and gasoline prices were up 40% year-over-year in July, while consumer coffee prices have only increased by 1% year-over-year. However, the latest commodity market data indicates that millions of Americans will likely be paying more for "the favorite beverage of the civilized world".The price for New York traded Arabica beans increased to an average $2.03 per pound in August 2021 — a 66% increase since the end of 2020.Coffee futures prices have risen on expected coffee crop loss in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee. According to USDA estimates, the severe droughts could reduce the 2020-2021 Brazilian Arabica coffee harvest by 30% compared to the previous market year, and by 23% compared to the 2017-2021 average. Rising sea fright prices also contribute to an increase in coffee costs. Brazil accounts for 40% of Arabica coffee beans production and 27% of global coffee beans exports. Thirty percent of coffee beans imported by the U.S. are supplied from Brazil. Note: Arabica, Coffea arabica, is the world's most popular and widely produced species of coffee, as well as the type most commonly imported into the US. Arabica is grown at higher altitudes and tends to have a sweeter and more nuanced taste. Robusta, Coffea canephora, the other widely-produced species of coffee, has a stronger and harsher taste. It contains twice as much caffeine as arabica, is generally considered to be of inferior quality, and is typically less expensive.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Consumer Price Inflation — February 2022 //pt.knoema.com/iwfujng/us-consumer-price-inflation-february-2022 2023-07-23T09:56:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Consumer Price Inflation — February 2022

(13 March 2022) The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals that U.S. consumer inflation remains high. In February, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.8% month-over-month, and the annual CPI inflation rate accelerated to 7.9%. Supply chain disruptions caused by the Ukraine crisis may push the annual CPI inflation rate into double digits by the end of 2022. Here are key insights from the latest BLS report.Motor fuel,  shelter and food were the main contributors to month-over-month CPI growth in February. Together these categories contributed 0.56 percentage points to the month-over-month CPI growth in February—70% of the total growth.While the greatest increases were in these three areas, price growth remains widespread among many consumer expenditure categories. Knoema's U.S. CPI inflation Heat Map shows that the median inflation rate for the 95-category sample stood at 0.8% month-over-month in February, meaning that half the expenditure categories saw inflation increases at or above this rate. Sixty-eight expenditure categories saw annualized price growth over 4%, compared to 47 in December and 46 in 2021 on average. Consumer prices for motor fuel accelerated the most — by 6.7% month-over-month. The latest data on retail gasoline prices and gasoline futures indicates that gasoline prices will continue to drive inflation in March. Alternative data sources and other indirect inflation indicators in datasets available through Knoema provide additional context and insight into what we may see in the months to come:Airline fares increased 5.4% month-over-month. Such near-real-time indicators as Apple's driving mobility index and the number of travelers screened at TSA checkpoints point to an increase in mobility through the first half of March 2022, which may accelerate transportation price increases even further.Some indirect indicators also point to growing inflation pressure. According to the National Federation of Independent Business's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six-month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021.The January Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a decrease in inflation expectations at the year-ahead and three-year-ahead horizons, to 5.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. However, the latest available survey data doesn't reflect more recent price movements. The March data on the U.S. breakeven inflation rates shows that investors are revising their inflation forecasts upwards. The analysis of price movements across separate value chains indicates that the potential for cost-push inflation remains high, with price growth for energy, food, metals and other commodities at global markets accelerating in March.   Discover the power of data: Find out how Knoema's Insights Engine can help companies stay ahead of inflation and pricing trends in a fast-changing business environment

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: The World's Newest Major Exporter of Crude Oil //pt.knoema.com/aiinih/united-states-the-world-s-newest-major-exporter-of-crude-oil 2023-07-13T16:48:32Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: The World's Newest Major Exporter of Crude Oil

In June, US crude oil exports reached historic levels at nearly 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d), a level similar to that of Nigeria and Iran. From 1975 until late 2015, a federal ban on the export of US crude oil severely restricted crude oil exports to all countries except Canada. By lifting the ban, the US Government has transformed the United States into a major exporter of crude oil and a force that is reshaping global oil markets. To date in 2018, the United States has averaged more than 1.7 million b/d of crude oil exports while continuing to import an average of 7.9 million b/d.Although Canada remains an important consumer of US crude oil—second only to China—the repeal of the crude oil ban has allowed US exporters to expand to nearly 30 countries.The US shale oil boom in the early years of this decade provided US refiners with high quality, discounted crudes that they were then able to sell into the export market. As a result, finished petroleum product exports have also jumped, increasing from about 1 million b/d prior to the shale boom up to 5.5 million b/d in first half of 2018.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US: Growing Immigration Crisis At Mexican Border //pt.knoema.com/bcfst/us-growing-immigration-crisis-at-mexican-border 2023-06-14T08:51:02Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US: Growing Immigration Crisis At Mexican Border

(January 2023) The rollback of Trump's hardline immigration policies by the Biden-Harris administration and struggling Latin American economies are pushing hundreds of thousands of migrants to cross the US-Mexico border in hope of a better life.According to the latest data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of migrant encounters across the U.S. southern border for December 2022 reached a record high of 251,487. Compared to December 2021 number of migrant encounters increased by 72,234. Of the 251,487 border enforcement encounters in December 2022, 14 percent of involved individuals who have been stopped by a U.S. border agent in the previous 12 months. There were a total of 216,162 unique encounters in December 2022, which is an 11 percent increase in the number of unique enforcement encounters from November 2022. The CBP says the increase is “driven largely by an increased number of individuals fleeing authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua.” More than 49,000 of the migrant encounters in December 2022 involved Mexicans, 44,064 involved Cubans, 35,490 involved Nicaraguans, 18,020 involved Colombians, CBP data show. The US is currently home to more than 50 million immigrants, who account for 15% of the US population. About one million immigrants (including over 100 thousand Mexicans) obtain lawful permanent resident status in the US each year.   Note: The encounter statistics in this dataset include both Title 8 and Title 42 enforcement actions by US Customs and Border Patrol. Title 8 enforcement actions refers to apprehensions or inadmissibles processed under CBP’s immigration authority. Inadmissibles refers to individuals encountered at ports of entry who are seeking lawful admission into the United States but are determined to be inadmissible, individuals presenting themselves to seek humanitarian protection under US laws, and individuals who withdraw an application for admission and return to their countries of origin within a short timeframe. Apprehensions refers to the physical control or temporary detainment of a person who is not lawfully in the U.S. which may or may not result in an arrest. Title 42 expulsions refers to individuals encountered by USBP and OFO and expelled to the country of last transit or home country in the interest of public health. To help prevent the introduction of COVID-19 into border facilities and into the United States, persons subject to the Title 42 order will not be held in congregate areas for processing and instead will immediately be expelled to their country of last transit. —US Customs and Border Protection, CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2022 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Where All the Foreign Direct Investment Flow //pt.knoema.com/mfqybag/where-all-the-foreign-direct-investment-flow 2023-06-12T10:38:31Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Where All the Foreign Direct Investment Flow

(January 2023) In 2021 the US has become the world’s top destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) with $5 trillion of accumulated inward FDI, while China has moved up to the third position. According to the IMF's Coordinated Direct Investment Survey the US inward FDI position increased by record high of $506 billion in 2021. China's inward FDI position for the same year increased by $364 billion and amounted to $3.6 trillion.Smaller economies that represent financial offshore centers take prominent positions among the global top 10. The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Ireland, and Switzerland are listed among top 10 FDI destinations even though none of these economies rank among the top 10 when it comes to gross domestic product.To obtain tax or regulatory benefits many multinational companies set up special purpose entities in offshore financial centers, which boosts FDI statistics but has very limited impact on hosting economy.The latest data from the MF's Coordinated Direct Investment Survey shows that the share of offshore financial centers in accumulation of inward FDI has gradually declined since 2017 which IMF economists explain by several policy initiatives. The US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as well as OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting initiative could reduce incentives to keep profits in low-tax jurisdictions and led to a substantial US repatriation of funds from foreign subsidiaries.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
An Uneven Recovery of the U.S. Labor Market //pt.knoema.com/uqhkgbd/an-uneven-recovery-of-the-u-s-labor-market 2023-05-31T06:45:57Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
An Uneven Recovery of the U.S. Labor Market

Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on unemployment indicates that the U.S. labor market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate went down to 3.6% in April and May 2020, which is just 0.1 percentage point above pre-pandemic level. However economy still misses 822 thousand jobs and the rebound in employment is uneven among industries.The professional and financial services, information, transportation, retail trade and construction sectors have added a combined 1.87 million workers as more people worked remotely and consumers ordered online. Employment in construction has recovered following post-covid hosing boom.Number of workers in leisure and hospitality industry, which has been hit hardest by the pandemic, is still 1.5 million below pre-covid. Education and health sectors also miss 340 thousand jobs compared to Feb. 2020. Many teachers and health workers have retired early.Facing budgetary challenges state and local governments have cut payrolls. In May 2022 in Government sector there were 615 thousand workers less compared to Feb. 2020.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Housing Market //pt.knoema.com/vixzkff/us-housing-market 2023-04-25T10:09:08Z Vladimir Eskin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000580
US Housing Market

Vladimir Eskin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000580
The US Consumer Price Inflation In February 2023 //pt.knoema.com/fvvbhec/the-us-consumer-price-inflation-in-february-2023 2023-04-17T20:12:19Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The US Consumer Price Inflation In February 2023

(15 Mar. 2023) According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. consumer prices annual growth eased to 6.0% in February, which is 0.4 percentage points lower compared to previous month. Compared to January 2023 monthly consumer price index went up 0.4% and core CPI growth accelerated to 0.5%. Here are key insights from the latest BLS report.February deceleration in annual CPI growth happened mainly due to high base of comparison. Because of this statistical efect year-over-year CPI growth will contimue to decelerate further through the first half of 2023.Month-over-month CPI growth in February was four times above 2010-2020 average.. Shelter, food and recreation services contributed the most to the of monthly CPI growth in February. Increase in prices for these consumer expenditure items added 0.26, 0.05 and 0.04 percentage points to month-over-month CPI growth, respectively. Food inflation is easing in recent month because of growing global food supply and retreating agricultural input costs (fuels, electricity, chemicals and fertilisers). Categories of utility gas services, used cars and trucks and medical care services were the key contributor to inflation deceleration. In February price decrease for these expenditure categories lowered monthly CPI growth by 0.07, 0.07 and 0.05 percentage points, respectively. The most worrying signal is the widespread price growth among many expenditure categories. Detailed data shows that the median inflation rate for the 90-category sample stood at 0.47% month-over-month in February meaning that half the expenditure categories saw inflation increases at or above this rate. In 2021 and 2022 median inflation stood at 0.30% and 0.46% moth-over-month on average.The latest data on retail gasoline prices, gasoline and natural gas futures indicates that energy prices will likely contribute to inflation acceleration in March. Rebuilding of SPR oil reserves can also accelerate inflation later in 2023. Alternative data sources and other indirect inflation indicators in datasets available through Knoema provide additional context and insight into what we may see in the months to come:Some indirect indicators point to stabilisation and lowering in inflation pressure. According to the National Federation of Independent Business's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six-month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been declining, which may translate into further inflation deceleration through 2023.Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.8 percentage point to 4.2 percent, according to the February Survey of Consumer Expectations. Three-year-ahead expectations remained at 2.7 percent. In March 2023 the U.S. breakeven inflation rates continued to move in its long-term average range.Recent data on the national home rent indices from the Apartment List and Zillow indicate that the growth in shelter component of CPI index will likely decelerate in the near-term future. The analysis of price movements across separate value chains indicates the essential decrease in potential for the cost-push inflation.   Discover the power of data: Find out how Knoema's Insights Engine can help companies stay ahead of inflation and pricing trends in a fast-changing business environment

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index //pt.knoema.com/cpkhzig/knoema-alternative-data-us-economic-activity-index 2023-03-24T13:54:02Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index

(07 July 2021) According to Knoema's Alternative Data US Economic Activity Composite Index—which combines information from the six alternative data indicators displayed below along with the S&P 500 Index—the US recovery stalled in May 2021, not long after $1,400 stimulus checks had been delivered to eligible adults under the third round of federal stimulus aid. As of late June 2021, US economic activity remained about 5 percent lower than it had been in early March of 2021.Credit card spending data and the number of passengers screens by TSA point to a complete recovery in consumer activity. However, the struggling small business sector suggests that the US economy still has a ways to go before reaching full recovery. According to data from Womply, the number of US small businesses open has been on the decline since June 2020; It is currently about 40% lower than the number of small businesses active before the pandemic.Mobility data from Google also suggests recovery is underway but not yet complete, with US retail and recreation movement nearing pre-pandemic levels but movement to and from workplaces still lagging far behind.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Ends QE4 as Businesses Re-close in Largest US States //pt.knoema.com/qiupdue/us-federal-reserve-ends-qe4-as-businesses-re-close-in-largest-us-states 2023-03-17T19:01:08Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Ends QE4 as Businesses Re-close in Largest US States

(8 July 2020)  The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet has fallen for the third week running, down last week by another $73 billion, effectively signaling the end the Fed's fourth round of quantitative easing. The fall goes against market concerns that the Fed's balance sheet continuously increase in coming months, and potentially years, but also raises questions about whether it was premature at could negatively affect markets given that business in many of the largest US states are closing again as COVID-19 cases resurge.The $73 billion decrease in total assets was powered by a $32 billion week-on-week plunge in mortgage backed securities (MBS) as well as sharp decreases in foreign central bank liquidity swaps and repo balances. The junk-bond and ETF buying program also stalled.The overall weekly change also reflects a decrease of $9 billion in repurchase agreements and a decrease of $49.5 billion in Central Bank liquidity swaps.The Fed decreasing its liquidity program for Central Banks is positive news in the sense that it suggests Central Banks are not in urgent need of liquidity and global markets have stabilized.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The US Economy Recession Tracker //pt.knoema.com/zkqorpf/the-us-economy-recession-tracker 2023-03-01T12:19:59Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The US Economy Recession Tracker

(January 2023) Whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession? The state of the US economy has been widely discussed among politicians, economists and market professionals since the summer of 2022 after the US Bureau of Economic Analyses reported the decline in gross domestic product for the second connective quarter.  According to the general definition—two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)—the U.S. entered a recession in the first quarter of 2022. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research who defines turning points in the US economic activity, says that recession is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. Which means that the US economy was not in a recession in the summer of 2022. Nevertheless, monetary policy tightening by The Federal Reserve in order to moderate inflation could send the US economy into recession. In this dashboard Knoema collected 15 key macroeconomic, market, labor, confidence and housing indicators that will help do define whether the recession is coming.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Expensive US Federal Debt //pt.knoema.com/myoqwkf/the-expensive-us-federal-debt 2023-01-30T13:51:10Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Expensive US Federal Debt

(January 2023) The cost to finance the US growing public debt is rising as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat the inflation. In 2022 the Federal Reserve lift rates from almost zero to 4.5%, which makes it that much more expensive to finance the US debt.During 2022, the federal government made $710 billion in interest payments, up from $580 billion the prior year, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). For context, that’s more than the government spent on education and social services. And it’s nearly as much as the $755 billion spent on education or $767 billion spent on national defense.The surging cost to service the US $31.4 trillion debt leaves less room for Government to spend on other priorities, including everything from infrastructure and the education and healthcare to the national defence.Other economic indicators show that the debt burden has not crossed the unsustainable level. For example, share of interest payments to current federal budget expenditures went up to 13.8% in Q4 2022. However, during three decades in 1970s, 80s and 90s share of spending on interest payments stood between 14 and 22% of current total expenditures.Data on government receipts and expenditures shows that the Federal budget deficit is narrowing. In 2022 Federal budget deficit lowered to $1.4 trillion or 5.4% of GDP, compared to $2.8 trillion (11.9% of GDP) a year ago. The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape and if the economic growth will not turn negative in 2023, debt service will stabilise. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Gun Death Rate in the US Nears Three-Decade High //pt.knoema.com/intscsc/the-gun-death-rate-in-the-us-nears-three-decade-high 2023-01-17T16:25:29Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Gun Death Rate in the US Nears Three-Decade High

(January 2023) In January the Gun Violence Archive released final figures on gun-related violence in 2022. Here are key takeaways.After in 2021 more Americans died of gun-related injuries than in any other year on record, in 2022  the Gun Violence Archive registered slightly fewer gun death. Overall, gun death excluding suicides declined to 20,181 incidents, which is 827 deaths less compared to 2021.A record number of America's kids were injured or killed by gunfire in 2022. According to the Gun Violence Archive more than 6,000 children and teens were injured or killed in shootings. That's the most in a single year since the database began tracking nine years ago.The number of mass shootings (4 or more shot), declined slightly from 690 in 2021 to 648 in 2022, but the number of mass murders (4 or more people killed) increased by 30%, from 28 in 2021 to 36 in 2022.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Fed’s Rate Cut: What it Says About US Economy & Emerging Economies //pt.knoema.com/qaqnkif/us-fed-s-rate-cut-what-it-says-about-us-economy-emerging-economies 2023-01-08T16:39:29Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Fed’s Rate Cut: What it Says About US Economy & Emerging Economies

(August 2019) Last week the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point, a rate that was in line with general market expectations. It was the first rate cut since 2008. A constellation of factors created the opportunity for the Fed to lower rates, including: a stable US economic outlook, a strong labour market, overall inflation and core inflation remain below two percent, and reduced manufacturing output (which has fallen for two consecutive quarters in 2019). Below we explore these factors and briefly discuss what this might mean for emerging markets.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Treasury Yields //pt.knoema.com/ywsaegf/us-treasury-yields 2023-01-08T16:39:22Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Treasury Yields

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Knoema | U.S. CPI Inflation Expected to Ease in June According to High-Frequency Indicators //pt.knoema.com/kejkcy/knoema-u-s-cpi-inflation-expected-to-ease-in-june-according-to-high-frequency-indicators 2023-01-02T05:39:26Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Knoema | U.S. CPI Inflation Expected to Ease in June According to High-Frequency Indicators

(11 June 2021) According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose sharply agin in May to 5.0% year-over-year, going well above the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Based on data for the first eleven days of June, Knoema's U.S. CPI Inflation Index — which combines data from four high-frequency indicators — points that consumer price inflation is expected to ease in June 2021 on a year-over-year basis.   Note: Knoema's U.S. CPI Inflation Index is designed to predict the potential change in direction of the U.S. CPI year-over-year growth rate and should not be regarded as a CPI forecast.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Competition That Shapes the Future //pt.knoema.com/rxnqoig/the-competition-that-shapes-the-future 2022-12-26T19:16:58Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Competition That Shapes the Future

(December 2022) One of the most significant developments in the world economy in recent decades is the rise of China as an economic superpower. From the size of economy to global trade to production of high-tech innovative products and services to complexity and diversity of supply chains, China has either come close or already ahead of the US. The competition of two superpowers - US and China - will shape the future of the global economy. In this dashboard Knoema put together seven key indicators that help to compare economic, innovative and military aspects of US-China competition.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market: Wages Failing to Keep Pace with Inflation //pt.knoema.com/hgegbnb/us-labor-market-wages-failing-to-keep-pace-with-inflation 2022-12-23T20:35:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market: Wages Failing to Keep Pace with Inflation

( December 2022) Though US CPI inflation eased in the end of the year wages in most US industries are not keeping up with inflation. Inflation has outpaced wage growth in most industries over the past 12 months, leaving many workers with lower wages once adjusted for inflation—or real wages.Only the information sector has seen wages grow 0.1 percentage points faster than the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate of 7.7 percent.Information sector employ just 2% of the US private sector workforce. Wage growth in the transportation, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and utility sectors was around 1 percentage point below the CPI growth. The remainder of US private sector workers are in industries where pay increases have fallen short of price increases.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
More US States Planing to Ban Gas-Powered Cars //pt.knoema.com/vsksskc/more-us-states-planing-to-ban-gas-powered-cars 2022-12-20T10:26:04Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
More US States Planing to Ban Gas-Powered Cars

(December 2022) Following Massachusetts and California, New York has become the third state in US that announced a ban on new internal combustion gas-powered vehicles sales by 2035. Currently there are 15 states that have adopted California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program, and two more that accept California’s Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) regulations. Together, those 15 states make up around 40% of the US passenger car market. California as the largest electric vehicle market (38% of the country’s EV sales were in California in 2021) adopted the strongest regulations for transition to zero vehicle emission target, which most likely will affect other states and federal government regulations.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Global Innovation Race //pt.knoema.com/yprcqvc/the-global-innovation-race 2022-12-16T10:05:48Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Global Innovation Race

(December 2022) From job creation and public health to national security and industrial competitiveness, innovations plays a vital role in a country’s socio-economic development and International competitiveness, impacting nearly every corner of society—either directly or indirectly.According to the Global Innovation Index Project, China has performed the most progress in innovation ecosystem development among over 200 countries over the last decade.China, Iran, South Korea, Turkey and France were the only five countries that demonstrated the outpacing growth in domestic innovation capabilities relative to the US.China's progress in building up its innovation system is based on outpacing growth in expenditure on research and development.  In 2018 China increased R&D expenditure over twenty five times compared to 1996, almost eliminating R&D expenditure gap with the US. The overall Global Innovation Index ranking is based on 81 indicators grouped into two sub-indices that are both equally important in presenting a complete picture of innovation; the Innovation Input Sub-Index and the Innovation Output Sub-Index. Hence, three indices are calculated:Innovation Input Sub-Index: Five input pillars capture elements of the economy that enable and facilitate innovative activities.Innovation Output Sub-Index: Innovation outputs are the result of innovative activities within the economy. Although the Output Sub-Index includes only two pillars, it carries the same weight as the Input Sub-Index in calculating the overall GII scores.The overall GII score is the average of the Input and Output Sub-Indices, on which the GII economy rankings are produced.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market Lags Behind the Economy //pt.knoema.com/acvxxvc/us-labor-market-lags-behind-the-economy 2022-12-06T19:31:42Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market Lags Behind the Economy

While the U.S. economy shrinks for the second consecutive quarter, labor market remains tight and companies are still focused on hiring. In July the US unemployment went down to a historically low 3.5 per cent even after gross domestic product declined 1.6% and 0.9% in Q1 and Q2 2022, respectively.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour turnover shows that layoffs still running at historically low levels in most industries. Most layoffs in June were concentrated in construction, which is sensitive to rising interest rates.The number of open job positions remains well above early 2020 levels and quits rate remains well above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels in most sectors, which indicates that the labor market remains strong. However the decline in a quits rates in recent months indicates the slowdown in the pace of employees leaving for better offers elsewhere.As labor market usually lags behind the economy it make take up to two or three months before the increase in the unemployment rate will confirm the decline in output.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Prefers Republican States //pt.knoema.com/zukszog/coronavirus-prefers-republican-states 2022-12-06T10:28:53Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Prefers Republican States

(10 August 2020)  Right after the Department of Health and Human Services in Washington D.C. took control over direct reporting of COVID-19 statistics, the second wave of the pandemic started to fade in the United States. Whether the altered trend reflects changes in methodology behind COVID-19 data, natural abatement, or renewal of anti-covid restrictions in many US states, one fact is beyond a doubt: republican strong-hold states experienced a significantly stronger second wave of COVID-19.The latest polls from FiveThirtyEight and case data from the COVID Tracker Project show that all US states for which Trump has an advantage over Biden along with so-called swing states—like Arizona, Florida, and Georgia—experienced a strong second wave of the pandemic in July. In 11 states where Democrats have the advantage, either the second wave was held off or the number of daily COVID-19 cases in July was much lower than in the April to May timeframe.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Alternative Data Points to Falling Housing Costs in US //pt.knoema.com/hdibshd/alternative-data-points-to-falling-housing-costs-in-us 2022-12-02T07:34:33Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Alternative Data Points to Falling Housing Costs in US

(December 2022) Housing costs have been a big driver of inflation in US. In October 2022 the shelter component of CPI had it's largest MoM increase since 1990, contributing 0.25 percentage points to MOM total CPI growth. Meanwhile the Apartment List national rent index had it's sharpest MoM decline in its history (starting in 2017), indicating that the growth in shelter component of CPI index will decelerate in the near-term future.According to the latest report from the Apartment List home rents across the US dropped in November by the most in at least five years. Rents nationally fall by 1% month-over-month. Prices still up 4.6% year-over-year.The national median rent increased by a record-setting 17.6 percent over the course of 2021. This rapid growth in rent prices is a key contributor to overall inflation, which is currently rising at its fastest pace in four decadesOver the course of the year as a whole, rent growth is continuing to outpace pre-pandemic years, but by an increasingly small margin. From January through November of this year, rents are up by a total of 4.7 percent, which is much closer to the growth rates we saw in 2018 and 2019 than it is to the astronomical 18 percent growth that we saw at this point last year. The cooldown in rent growth is being mirrored by continued easing on the supply side of the market. The Apartment List vacancy index now stands at 5.7 percent, after more than a year of gradual increases from a low of 4.1 percent last fall.The recent slowdown has been geographically widespread. Rents decreased this month in 93 of the nation’s 100 largest cities in October. Among large metros nationwide, Seattle saw the sharpest decline in November, with prices down by 2.6 percent month-over-month. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, and Riverside have all seen rent growth of 30 percent or more since March 2020, but none of these metros has seen rents increase by more than 1 percent over the past twelve months.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Figures Shattering Records in November //pt.knoema.com/gdvghz/united-states-covid-19-figures-shattering-records-in-november 2022-12-01T10:15:52Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Figures Shattering Records in November

(13 November 2020) In the time since US elections on 3 November, an additional 11,000 Americans have lost their lives to the virus and 1.3 million new cases have been reported in the United States, a 98 percent growth in daily cases that is shattering records with each new day. The glimmer of hope in the dark statistics is that as the US enters this third 'wave' of cases, the death rate is lower than it was earlier in the pandemic, which is a critical development given that the toll on the US health care system (based on hospitalization rates) has reached its maximum level since the start of pandemic.On November 13, more than 68,000 Americans were currently hospitalized due to the virus. The number of patients with COVID currently in an ICU and on ventilators is rapidly increasing, although it is still lower than in April.Seven US states, including Texas, Illinois, California, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Indiana, account for 37 percent of currently hospitalized Americans with COVID-19.The relative number of daily COVID-19 deaths remains low at 1.8 deaths per 10,000 active cases each day, compared to 48 deaths per 10,000 active cases during the first wave of the pandemic. Since US and state governments are largely disinclined to implement new anti-COVID restrictions like many European countries are doing, it may be that the only way out of the pandemic for the United States is a vaccine. Given that the unknown timeline for mass production and delivery of a vaccine, however, the better hope for near-term traction against the virus may come down to individual behavior.Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced on Monday a vaccine candidate found to be more than 90 percent effective in preventing COVID-19. Pfizer said it expects to be able to submit the vaccine to the US Food and Drug Administration for Emergency Use Authorization in the third week of November. Pfizer since the announcement has clarified publicly (see also Pfizer tweet) that it did not participate in the US Federal Government 'Operation Warp Speed' for R&D funding of its vaccine.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Tracking US Inflation: Is the Worst Behind Us or Still to Come? //pt.knoema.com/dxcpbtb/tracking-us-inflation-is-the-worst-behind-us-or-still-to-come 2022-11-27T07:01:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Tracking US Inflation: Is the Worst Behind Us or Still to Come?

(27 September 2021) The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that inflation in the U.S. is slowing down. In August, the consumer price index (CPI) decelerated to a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to 0.7% to 0.9% monthly increases in April through June.  The highest inflation has been concentrated among only a small number of categories of consumer goods and services. Prices for used cars and rental cars jumped amid supply chain disruptions and strong demand. Motor fuel prices increased, following world oil prices. And prices for plane tickets rose with the recovery of air traffic. The latest BLS data points to easing of these trends. Nevertheless, the worst may still be ahead.The decrease in used car, car rental and airfare prices in August was mostly driven by the new COVID wave. Such near-real-time indicators as Apple's driving mobility index and the number of travelers screened at TSA checkpoints confirm an overall decrease in mobility through August and the first half of September. Once the current COVID surge subsides, price trends may reverse.While used car pricing received the most attention, prices for many other consumer categories are growing at a rate of more than 2% per year. A U.S. CPI heat map that highlights price trends for 26 major commodity and services categories shows only five categories had price gains less than 2% year-over-year. And for 50% of the categories, prices increased more than 4% year-over-year. Some indirect indicators also point to growing inflation pressure. According to the National Federation of Independent Business's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021. The observed price hikes at small businesses may point to further inflation acceleration in the coming months.Though the U.S. Federal Reserve announced recently that it is going to moderate the pace of asset purchases soon, which could slow inflation, so far it continues to inject new money into the economy to boost demand. In addition to the 2020 $3.2 trillion stimulus package, the Federal Reserve purchased U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities worth $1.1 trillion in Jan.–Sept. 2021. U.S. consumers are currently anticipating inflation levels closer to 4% in the mid-term, and vague statements from the Fed may not be enough to anchor inflation expectations.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Tracking Early Signals of Post-COVID Crisis Rebound //pt.knoema.com/stvluj/united-states-tracking-early-signals-of-post-covid-crisis-rebound 2022-11-27T07:01:41Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Tracking Early Signals of Post-COVID Crisis Rebound

(April 7, 2020) In early 2020 economists and statisticians faced a similar problem as 90 years ago in the very beginning of the Great Depression. After the economy collapsed in the fourth quarter of 1929 the US government needed to find a way to measure the magnitude of the recession. Fast forward to the late 1930s and the first official US national accounts were born from the efforts of one Simon Kuzents. This was the introduction of the modern concept of ‘gross domestic product’, a central concept of modern economic analysis. While GDP can confirm the speed and magnitude of changes in economic activity, by virtue of being estimated on a quarterly basis, significant changes in economic activity (upward or downward) typically only appear three to four months post-fact. GDP certainly cannot measure up to a COVID-19 economic experience.  Even leading indicators—introduced first in 1938 by Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns, founders of business cycle research—with the benefit of monthly and even daily frequencies, as well as positive track records for predicting recessions 3 to 6 months out, are ill equipped for COVID-19. In this dashboard we compare the ability of "traditional" leading indices and some alternative economic indicators to produce early warning signals of economic downturns.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Can 3 & 1 Merge? | Divergent Priorities Derail US Fiscal Stimulus //pt.knoema.com/dlxemb/can-3-1-merge-divergent-priorities-derail-us-fiscal-stimulus 2022-11-26T06:47:35Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Can 3 & 1 Merge? | Divergent Priorities Derail US Fiscal Stimulus

(9 August 2020)  On the heals of the record drop in US GDP during the second quarter, it is evident that US economic recovery during the COVID pandemic will be slow going and determined in part by the future of new stimulus for households and businesses. Even though the US Government's first rounds of fiscal stimulus already expired in late July, democrats and republicans as of last week were no closer to a new stimulus agreement. Over the weekend, President Trump signed executive orders to reinstate some benefits, leaving US state governments with the challenge of financing unfunded benefits for millions of Americans.   With democrats and republicans also tying in unrelated benefits to the deal, the question becomes not only under which terms will they finally sign a deal, but will it be too late for millions of Americans, and what will be the economic cost? The US Government and Federal Reserve have already deployed a wide package of stimulus estimated at 27 percent of GDP (13.3% of fiscal stimulus and 13.9 percent of monetary stimulus - almost $6 trillion combined). Following are the high level values of proposals for the next stimulus package, with more details provided for each in the charts below:The democratic proposal would cost an estimated$3.4 trillion (16% of GDP) while the republican package is priced at $1 trillion (5% of GDP).The two parties disagree over a wide range of issues, including: the amount of extra weekly unemployment insurance payments; liability protections for corporations,  doctors, and schools; aid for cash-strapped states and municipalities; and, funds needed to reopen schools.Both parties are pointing to the state of the US labor market and uncertainties around COVID-19 pandemic dynamics to strengthen their negotiation positions.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Simple Search Queries With COVID-19 Predictive Power //pt.knoema.com/cdugyub/united-states-simple-search-queries-with-covid-19-predictive-power 2022-11-25T06:47:00Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Simple Search Queries With COVID-19 Predictive Power

(14 September 2020) It would seem intuitive that when faced with a new virus for which no previous immunity can possibly exist and it has reached a global scale, you'd seek out every possible advantage to identify hot spots of contagion early. Big data has opened up new frontiers to do just that, potentially even months before health officials can confirm the virus' hold on a community.   Using digital footprints to predict human behavior is nothing new. It's a common theme in data forensics for everything from terrorism threats to retail shopping trends. In July, researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital published findings of a new signal in the noise of big data and the predictive value of the data with regard to the trajectory of COVID.According to the findings from Massachusetts General Hospital, internet searches on gastrointestinal symptoms predicted a rise in COVID-19 cases weeks in advance of the case reports from local medical authorities. Analysis of data on COVID-19 cases data from Alphabet Inc.’s Google Trends on intensity of search queries for ageusia, loss of appetite, and diarrhea increased four weeks before the rise in COVID-19 cases for most US states, with maximum correlation estimates of 0.998, 0.871, and 0.748, respectively, for the symptoms. The findings introduce an interesting question for policy wonks, market watchers, and concerned citizens alike: Are we heading to a future in which governments could justify the introduction of lockdowns based on internet search statistics alone?

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Just Reopened and Closing Again: Resurgence of COVID-19 in US Forces Businesses to Shut Down //pt.knoema.com/myrholb/just-reopened-and-closing-again-resurgence-of-covid-19-in-us-forces-businesses-to-shut-down 2022-11-25T06:46:58Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Just Reopened and Closing Again: Resurgence of COVID-19 in US Forces Businesses to Shut Down

(3 July 2020)  With mounting social pressure from protestors, starting as early as late April, many US state governments removed or allowed to expire the stay-at-home orders intended to control the spread of COVID-19. Today, these softer policies are being rolled back and business closures and masks requirements are returning. Across many US states even higher-risk businesses and venues, such as movie theaters and gyms, reopened with nearly immediately negative results on coronavirus statistics. On July 1, the number of new cases topped 50,000 per day for the first time. Three states - Florida, Texas, and California - accounted for almost 60 percent of the overall increase in new daily cases. In many other states the situation also worsened.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-China AI Competition | Who is Winning? //pt.knoema.com/sxovfdc/us-china-ai-competition-who-is-winning 2022-11-22T13:56:11Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-China AI Competition | Who is Winning?

(November 2022) According to the latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) Index Report by Stanford University, in 2021 China continued to lead the world in the number of AI journal, conference, and repository publications—63.2% higher than the United States with all three publication types combined. Another fact from the UN: due to rapid economic expansion and information and communications technology (ICT) investment growth in recent decades, China's ICT sector today is almost as big as the ICT sector in the US. The question that is raised by these trends is — where is China in the AI race with the US?Why AI? AI, as the core component of the modern economy based on digital platforms, is becoming the key factor of global competitiveness. The more efficient the AI component, the more added value a digital platform can generate.Besides AI journal publications and citations, the US still outpaces China in AI-funding-related indicators. For example, in 2021 the annual private US AI investment exceeded private AI investment in China by 207%.In a broader context, the R&D (research and development) investment in the digital sector by US companies exceeds China's R&D investment in the digital sector by 237%. And today there are only two Chinese companies, compared with seven US companies, among the companies worldwide that invest more than $6 billion in the digital sector each year. Given its faster long-term economic growth, China has the potential to gradually change the balance of global AI power. However, it is highly unlikely that China or any other country will equal the US in AI potential in the near future.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Recession Fears: American Consumers in Focus //pt.knoema.com/hsjzslc/us-recession-fears-american-consumers-in-focus 2022-11-17T17:03:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Recession Fears: American Consumers in Focus

While real sector of the U.S. economy continues to expand, consumers are losing confidence amid record-high inflation. In this dashboard we collected four indicators demonstrating early warning signals of consumer demand downturns. The Google Web Search Trend for the U.S. Recession shows the relative popularity of "recession" search quarries in the U.S. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of U.S. consumer confidence levels conducted by the University of Michigan. It is based on telephone surveys that gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.  Unemployment Claims are based on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, e.g. each week's release is the average of the four prior jobless claims reports. Strong job growth is considered a sign of a strong economy. Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita is the amount of money that U.S. residents have left to spend or save after paying taxes.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Diesel Shortage in US Could Keep Inflation Elevated //pt.knoema.com/ktnjjab/diesel-shortage-in-us-could-keep-inflation-elevated 2022-11-08T11:47:19Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Diesel Shortage in US Could Keep Inflation Elevated

The US diesel inventories reached its lowest levels since 2008, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting that, as of October 24, the country had 25 days left of distillate supplies.Energy analysts attribute the shortage to supply disruptions triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and reduced refinery capacity because of regular fall maintenance and the loss of a major East Coast refinery to a 2019 fire.According to the Energy Information Administration, low distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, could push diesel prices close to $5 per gallon, even though the national price of gasoline has dropped below $4 per gallon. Since diesels the main fuel used to power trucks, rails and vessels that transport all sorts of things from food to home goods to holiday gifts across the country, increased prices are likely to bleed into other goods, too.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
China and US Are The Main Contributors to Global Debt Growth //pt.knoema.com/ikhlwlf/china-and-us-are-the-main-contributors-to-global-debt-growth 2022-11-07T12:43:17Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
China and US Are The Main Contributors to Global Debt Growth

(November 2022) According to data from the Bank for International Settlements since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic non-financial sector debt of 40 largest economies increased by $36 trillion - from $194 trillion in Q4 2019 to $230 trillion in Q1 2022. The largest contributors to global non-financial sector debt increase were China and US. Since the end of 2019 non-financial sector debt in China and US increased by $16 and $10 trillion respectively, making up over 70% of global non-financial sector debt increase. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
List of US States by GDP, 2010-2021 //pt.knoema.com/rhjjehg/list-of-us-states-by-gdp-2010-2021 2022-11-03T12:20:18Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
List of US States by GDP, 2010-2021

On this page, US states are ranked by the real gross domestic product (GDP). California has the largest GDP among US states of $2.8 billion accounting for 15 percent of the total country's GDP. Texas has the second-largest economy which constitutes 10 percent of the national economy.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID Vs. Trade Wars: China Leads the Export Race //pt.knoema.com/tcdvhpd/covid-vs-trade-wars-china-leads-the-export-race 2022-11-02T14:26:14Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID Vs. Trade Wars: China Leads the Export Race

(October 2022) The emergence of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 had, without doubt, triggered essential risks and uncertainties on global trade, which by that time had already been subdued by US- China trade war. China began to promote the resumption of work and production orderly after the pandemic was effectively contained in late February 2020. In May 2020, the resumption of work and production in China progressed in an orderly manner. In sharp contrast, COVID-19 broke out in countries in the Americas and Europe without being timely controlled. Cross-border air transportation and the global supply chains were then severely impacted or even interrupted.Data on global trade shows that China has become the major beneficiary of COVID related disruptions. Though the pandemic caused severe declines in China's trade with its major trade partners, but China's trade recovered rapidly and relatively strongly after the second half of 2020. As result, the share of China's exports in world exports increased to 14.9% in 2020 and record 15.3% in 2021. At the same time the share of developed countries in world exports continued to decline.The mechanical & electrical and the high-tech industries have contributed significantly to the recovery of China's exports. Exports of medical products, furniture and appliances show growth in line with the implementation of quarantine policies. Exports of electronic products and electrical vehicles kept growing both before the outbreak and during the pandemic. Compared with the world's leading trade nations, the COVID-19 has had overall devastating but not persistent impacts on China's trade. China has spent incalculably large costs to control and prevent the epidemic in 2020, but this has also allowed China to achieve a stable and strong recovery more quickly than other nations, and the evidence in trade figures supports China's strategy.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
High Mortgage Rates Pose Threat to U.S. Housing Market //pt.knoema.com/vvbihld/high-mortgage-rates-pose-threat-to-u-s-housing-market 2022-10-28T12:23:53Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
High Mortgage Rates Pose Threat to U.S. Housing Market

(28 October 2022) Following policy rate hikes by Federal Reserve, mortgage rates have quickly risen this year more than doubling in just 10 months. The increase in mortgage rates can potentially have an essential negative impact on such important sector of economy as housing. Housing market, when estimated as combination of construction, repair and maintenance in construction, utilities, housing sales and furniture manufacturing, accounts for more than 15% of U.S. GDP. However the impact on economy can be even larger. Building new houses requires homebuilders, architects, construction workers, inspectors and suppliers for building materials, realtors and financial services, furniture, lawn equipment.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Federal Government Deficit in September 2022 //pt.knoema.com/wttolqg/u-s-federal-government-deficit-in-september-2022 2022-10-25T12:58:05Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Federal Government Deficit in September 2022

According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury the federal government ran a deficit of $431 billion in September 2022, the final month of FY2022. This deficit was the difference between $488 billion in revenues and $919 billion in spending. Receipts were up by $28 billion (6%), and outlays were up by $394 billion (63%) compared to September 2021. Timing shifts did move some payments to September that otherwise would have been paid in October (i.e., FY2023), contributing to the higher-than-expected deficit last month. More significantly, the Biden Administration’s announcement of a continued repayment pause on and forgiveness of federal student loan payments caused September’s deficit to be much higher than forecasted. Since federal accounting rules require these changes to be a one-time charge to the government, estimated costs of $426 billion were recorded by the federal government in September. In fact, student loan forgiveness was the single largest contribution to increased federal spending – and the deficit – in September (and in FY2022 overall), accounting for $379 billion. Given the sizeable impact of these one-time policy changes, it is difficult to discern year-over-year major trends for the month of September.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-Russia Summit | Negotiations From A Position of Strength Or Seeking A Compromise //pt.knoema.com/qcwqjkb/us-russia-summit-negotiations-from-a-position-of-strength-or-seeking-a-compromise 2022-10-13T16:40:39Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-Russia Summit | Negotiations From A Position of Strength Or Seeking A Compromise

(15 June 2021) On June 16, the meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia will take place in Geneva. This will be the first in-person meeting of the US and Russian presidents since 2019. It can be said without exaggeration that the results of the US-Russia summit will determine the state of the global order for many years ahead (at least till 2024, the year of the next presidential elections in the United States and Russia). So the main question about the summit is, Will the United States and Russia find common ground and begin to work out ways to compromise on key issues of global development, or will the economic, political, and military confrontation between the two countries continue? In this dashboard we summarize and compare the key indicators of the two countries' power backing their negotiation positions. These powers include economic strength, innovation, military, energy, and human powers. The comparison between two countries is not encouraging.  Since the United States' power in all key areas (with the exception of nuclear weapons) significantly exceeds the power of Russia, it is unlikely that the United States will be willing to discontinue its policy of pressuring Russia.The mutual economic ties between the two countries (measured by value of bilateral trade in goods compared to total trade in goods) are also too small to constitute the basis for building stable relationships.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market Starts to Cool //pt.knoema.com/vmgruxe/us-labor-market-starts-to-cool 2022-10-05T09:37:27Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Labor Market Starts to Cool

US job openings fell by the most in nearly 2 and a half years in August, suggesting that the labor market was starting to cool as the economy grapples with higher interest rates aimed at dampening demand and taming inflation.Job openings dropped 1.1 million to 10.1 million in August, the lowest level since mid-2021. August’s decline was the largest since April 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.The decrease in job openings was led by healthcare and social assistance, with a decline of 236,000. There were 183,000 fewer job openings in other services.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Dollar is Winning The Currency War //pt.knoema.com/ltpgfgb/us-dollar-is-winning-the-currency-war 2022-09-27T13:17:57Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Dollar is Winning The Currency War

(27 September, 2022) According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, since the end of 2021 US dollar appreciated by 10.5% against other currencies. An ultra-hawkish Fed policy and energy crisis and high energy costs pushed the dollar to new highs.Japanese yen, Swedish kronor and UK pound depreciated by more than 19% against US dollar since the end of 2021. For the same period Euro depreciated by 13%.Strong US dollar makes imported goods and services cheeper for US consumers, partiality compensating the growth of domestic prices.For the global economy appreciation of US dollar will have an essential negative impact subduing global trade, causing debt crisis in developing countries and suppressing growth in developed economies as major central banks have to hike policy rates in response to FED's policy.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Electric Vehicle Charging Station and EVSE Ports in U.S. and Canada //pt.knoema.com/qjketj/electric-vehicle-charging-station-and-evse-ports-in-u-s-and-canada 2022-09-22T13:29:01Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Electric Vehicle Charging Station and EVSE Ports in U.S. and Canada

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Electric Vehicle Charging Station and EVSE Ports in U.S. and Canada //pt.knoema.com/xnulvig/electric-vehicle-charging-station-and-evse-ports-in-u-s-and-canada 2022-09-21T16:33:25Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Electric Vehicle Charging Station and EVSE Ports in U.S. and Canada

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Oil and Gas Drilling Rigs in Operation Fall to Record Low //pt.knoema.com/jjkxmnc/united-states-oil-and-gas-drilling-rigs-in-operation-fall-to-record-low 2022-09-15T08:43:12Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Oil and Gas Drilling Rigs in Operation Fall to Record Low

During the week of May 15, 2020, the number of oil and gas drilling rigs in operation in the United States fell by 35 to a record low of 339, according to Baker Hughes, an American oilfield services company. Nearly 70 percent of the drop in rigs was in the Permian basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, has been declining sharply since mid-March due to a drop in global oil demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2022 //pt.knoema.com/gtpemwg/use-of-united-states-armed-forces-abroad-1798-2022 2022-09-01T19:00:56Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2022

The United States spends roughly as much on defense as the rest of the world put together and remains the only country able to project military power globally. With its extensive defense budget and capabilities, the US remains a military leader in contemporary international politics.According to data from the US Congressional Research Service, the US has undertaken over 500 international military interventions since 1798, with nearly 60% undertaken between 1992 and 2022. What’s more, over one-third of these missions occurred after 1999.With the end of the Cold War era, one would expect the US to decrease its military interventions abroad, assuming lower threats and interests at stake. But these patterns reveal the opposite – the US has increased its military involvements abroad.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Texas, US | Extreme Winter Weather Hits Energy Markets //pt.knoema.com/vbbnpyg/texas-us-extreme-winter-weather-hits-energy-markets 2022-08-22T09:29:14Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Texas, US | Extreme Winter Weather Hits Energy Markets

(18 February 2021) The past week has been eye-opening for many Texans as the weaknesses of the state's private energy supply network,  priorities implicit in the system (commercial vs. residential), and regulatory gaps have come to light. A recent arctic air mass brought ice, snow, and persistent below-freezing temperatures through the central United States and all the way to Texas, hitting the state's energy markets and the welfare of millions of Texans.Freeze-offs in natural gas lines affected US dry natural gas production, which decreased from 93.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 to 79.5 Bcf/d during the week of February 11, 2021. According to EIA estimates, a large portion of the national decrease in natural gas production was from declines in Texas, which decreased output by more than 10 Bcf/d over the February 8–17 period.Disruptions in natural gas production moved the Henry Hub gas spot price to $23.9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by February 17, compared to just $3.8 MMBtu a week earlier on February 10.Texas' electricity grid has also been impacted significantly. The cold storm moved 40,000 MW of generation (roughly 40% of which is wind and solar) offline, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), while electricity demand grew almost 80% YoY as of February 14. The next day, in response to generation shortages, ERCOT authorized rolling blackouts that not only failed to roll but also ended three days later despite the fact that almost 50% of the power generation capacity remained offline. Investigators will surely be reviewing this in the weeks to come. In recent years, the growth of wind electricity has contributed most to the displacement of coal production in Texas. While this has helped reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses, natural gas still remains the power giant in Texas and is typically exported to other states. Under current conditions, the Governor of Texas has temporarily banned inter-state exports.Recent cold weather has exposed the vulnerability of the state's energy supply due to natural gas pipeline failures as well as frozen wind turbines; wind power shortfalls contributed 13% to the overall outages. In the face of climate change, this experience has required Texas to reevaluate its energy system to ensure viability in protecting the welfare of its citizens.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Rising Cost of Burger //pt.knoema.com/zrsjmrf/rising-cost-of-burger 2022-08-08T11:03:47Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Rising Cost of Burger

As ingredients for Big Macs, McNuggets and other items have become more expensive McDonald's, the world's biggest restaurant chain, expects that more price hikes for its meal could be coming this year. Data from the U.S, Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that costs for key burger ingredients between Jan. 2019 and Jul. 2022 increased from 9% for species to 117% for wheat (key component in production of buns)McDonald’s U.S. food and paper costs were up by about 4% in 2021, and management anticipates about a 8% increase in 2022, with more pressure earlier in the year. Management notes that this will pressure both margins and cash flow.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
USA population: Counties and States //pt.knoema.com/mobwajg/usa-population-counties-and-states 2022-06-29T19:17:11Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
USA population: Counties and States

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Motion Picture Industry Labor Statistics //pt.knoema.com/dwhaljg/u-s-motion-picture-industry-labor-statistics 2022-06-08T12:12:20Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Motion Picture Industry Labor Statistics

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Unbanked Households Rate in the U.S. //pt.knoema.com/lpnywsg/the-unbanked-households-rate-in-the-u-s 2022-06-06T09:16:16Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The Unbanked Households Rate in the U.S.

According to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) the share of US households without banking access decreased from 7.6% to 5.4% between 2009 and 2019. U.S. states with the highest share of unbanked population in 2019 were Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico and Georgia. States with the lowest rate of unbanked households were Vermont, Minnesota and Idaho.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Shrimp Industry Overview //pt.knoema.com/rrjiifb/u-s-shrimp-industry-overview 2022-05-12T08:47:40Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Shrimp Industry Overview

According to the UN FAO data for the last two decades the U.S. capture shrimp production has stayed almost unchanged and averaged 133 thousand tonnes per year. Over the same period imports of shrimps almost doubled - from 513 thousand tonnes in 2000 to 909 thousand tonnes in 2021. Major exporters of shrimps to U.S. are India, Ecuador, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Home Sales Skyrocketed as COVID Swept the Nation //pt.knoema.com/efzbvzc/united-states-home-sales-skyrocketed-as-covid-swept-the-nation 2022-05-09T20:29:33Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Home Sales Skyrocketed as COVID Swept the Nation

(11 November 2020) Not all sectors of the US economy have been hit hard by the COVID induced economic crisis. The US residential real estate market is one of the rays of hope amidst the gloom. Low interest rates and trillions of dollars of US government stimulus have decreased Americans' debt burden and made homes more affordable, sending sales of single-family homes up by 28 percent in August compared to January.In mid March 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to nearly zero to support the economy as COVID-19 took hold nationwide. Immediately following, the 30-year mortgage rate—which had already been in general decline since late 2018—turned downward and as of earlier this month reached a record low 2.78 percent.Lower interest rates have also helped to reduce the debt burden for US households. In Q2 2020, the ratio of mortgage debt service payments to disposable personal income dropped to a record low 3.7 percent. Looking ahead, rumors of housing price bubbles and shocks reminiscent of the global financial crisis weigh heavy on an already pandemic stricken economy even though housing prices have not yet migrated northward. As buyers have enjoyed lower and lower mortgage rates since 2018, home prices have remained relatively unchanged. One signal to watch, however, is market supply. In August 2020, the ratio of 'houses for sale' to 'houses sold' decreased to a record low level since 1963 with only a 3.4 month supply. This indicates that demand for new homes is outpacing market supply.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Pandemic Risks Increasing US Government Debt to Unsustainable Levels //pt.knoema.com/lhxbab/coronavirus-pandemic-risks-increasing-us-government-debt-to-unsustainable-levels 2022-04-21T13:09:36Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Pandemic Risks Increasing US Government Debt to Unsustainable Levels

While the US government works to extract its economy from the steepest spiral since the Great Depression, coronavirus-related economic stimulus of upwards of $3.5 trillion threatens the sustainability of the country's debt burden. While Washington's stimulus package and related fiscal measures are needed to prevent complete collapse of the economy, the country's creditworthiness and ability to provide services may be challenged in the long-term.According to recent research from Wells Fargo, steps taken to combat the COVID-19 outbreak will likely balloon the federal budget deficit to about 17%, the highest ratio since World War II. The debt-to-GDP ratio of the federal government is expected to increase to 96% in FY 2020 from 79% in FY 2019.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Trade Deficit Widened to Record $84 Billion in August //pt.knoema.com/qgnnqt/united-states-trade-deficit-widened-to-record-84-billion-in-august 2022-04-21T10:10:46Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Trade Deficit Widened to Record $84 Billion in August

(30 October 2020) The US trade gap in goods widened to a record $84 billion in August pointing to twin truths: strong recovery of the US economy and the failure of President Trump to achieve one of his presidency's main goals of reducing the US trade deficit.The Fed's $2.9 trillion in total stimulus from March through May and lower interest rates prompted households to spend instead of save and businesses to resume investing as indicated by short-term indicators, such as retail sales and capacity utilization. With consumer demand recovering faster than production, the unmet demand was covered by increased imports.There are also fundamental reasons for the nearly five-decade trade deficit, which is also currently the largest trade deficit in the world. US domestic investment vastly exceeds savings and the US maintains a large budget deficit, which are financed from abroad in the form of payments for imports. A strong dollar and enormous financial sector also contribute to the negative trade balance.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Heading to Big Apple? Compare Rents Across Neighbourhoods //pt.knoema.com/fbsagdc/heading-to-big-apple-compare-rents-across-neighbourhoods 2022-04-06T17:17:10Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Heading to Big Apple? Compare Rents Across Neighbourhoods

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal Payments for Individuals by Major Program //pt.knoema.com/ckfkiyf/us-federal-payments-for-individuals-by-major-program 2022-04-05T16:04:24Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Federal Payments for Individuals by Major Program

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Demographic, Socioeconomic Profile //pt.knoema.com/polbgac/demographic-socioeconomic-profile 2022-03-08T10:35:01Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Demographic, Socioeconomic Profile

The following data and associated discussion provide a snapshot of Somerset County’s residents, workforce, and economy, and are based on a variety of sources, all of which are identified among addenda that follow this CEDS report, unless otherwise specifically noted.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Interest Rates //pt.knoema.com/wpkbldb/us-interest-rates 2022-02-10T19:04:09Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Interest Rates

(16 March 2020)  On Sunday, in anticipation of the dire potential effects of the coronavirus on the US economy, the US Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rates to nearly zero. In addition to a one-percentage-point rate cut decrease—the second emergency rate cut so far this month—the Federal Reserve:Cut reserve requirements for thousands of banks to zero;Announced a $700 billion quantitative easing program ($500 billion of Treasurys, $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities) that will be launched Monday with an initial a $40 billion in asset purchases;Decreased the emergency lending rate at the discount window by 125 basis points to 0.25% in addition to lengthening and loan terms to 90 days; andCoordinated with several central banks globally, including the Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland as well as the European Central Bank, to execute existing dollar swap arrangements to enhance the liquidity of the US dollar globally. All eyes now turn to the market response, consumer confidence, and other leading indicators to assess the extent of the economic weakness in the United States as COVID-19 continues to spread.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Sports Betting Industry is on the Rise //pt.knoema.com/xalczxc/united-states-sports-betting-industry-is-on-the-rise 2022-02-02T08:04:55Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Sports Betting Industry is on the Rise

(15 April 2021) Since 2018, when US states were given the power to legalize sports betting, the annual revenue of the sports betting industry has increased by five times — from $0.3 billion in 2018 to $1.5 billion in 2020 according to data from SportsHandle. The COVID-19 pandemic undermined revenue growth in early 2020, but the industry had already recovered by September, largely due to the adoption of online betting.As of today, 20 US states have already launched online or retail legal sports betting, several other states have legalised the sports betting but not launched it yet and many states are in the first stages of considering legal sports betting. Experts estimate that if sports betting is legalised and launched in all 50 states, industry revenue will increase to around $20 billion a year. Some US state governments and sports leagues see sports betting as a good opportunity to increase tax revenues and profits in a subdued post-pandemic economy — one which stimulates the cooperation between sports leagues and gambling operators as well as the rise of new startups providing online betting services.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The US Inflation Landscape //pt.knoema.com/kgeqryb/the-us-inflation-landscape 2022-01-28T18:52:47Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
The US Inflation Landscape

(January 26, 2022) According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in December 2021 consumer price inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 7.0% year-over-year — the fastest pace of growth since 1982. And this is not just because of high prices on gasoline and and passenger cars. BLS data shows that prices increased across a wide range of consumer goods and services. To estimate the "spread" of inflation across the U.S. consumer market, we employed the BLS CPI inflation data for 80 representative expenditure categories — from motor fuels, tires, apparel, and bakery products to newspapers and magazines and veterinary services for pets — and compared the first and the last months of 2021.The comparison shows that the number of expenditure categories where price growth is below 2.0% year-over-year decreased from 40 (50% of the categories analyzed) in Jan. 2021 to 18 (22.5%) in Dec. 2021.In December, there were 11 expenditure categories where price growth exceeded 10% year-over-year, including fuel and cars but also meat, furniture and home equipment, and lodging away from home. For 45 categories, the price growth exceeded 4%. In the previous January, on the other hand, there were only 16 categories where prices grew more than 4% year-over-year, and no categories that recorded price growth above 10%. The median inflation rate (which splits the number of expenditure categories equally) for the 80-category sample increased from 2.0% to 4.4% between January and December last year, underlining that inflation has not only increased as a whole, but spread to more consumer goods and services. The spread of inflation across more and more expenditure categories may indicate unfolding cost-push inflation — when an increase in prices for raw materials and intermediates as well as demand for high wages translates into higher consumer prices.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Inflation Hits 6.8%, a Four-Decade High //pt.knoema.com/hyabkoc/us-inflation-hits-6-8-a-four-decade-high 2022-01-18T18:01:30Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Inflation Hits 6.8%, a Four-Decade High

(12 December 2021) In November, U.S. consumer price inflation, a measure of the cost of a wide-ranging basket of consumer goods and services, hit its highest year-over-year growth in four decades. Inflation continues to put pressure on households and businesses. The consumer price index was up 6.8% year-over-year in November, largely driven by food, energy and housing prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, climbed 4.9%, the highest jump since 1991.Food prices were up 6.1% in November, while housing rose 4.8% as disruption in the supply of raw materials limited construction activities.Energy price were up 33.3% in November following a 30% increase in October. Gasoline prices were up a staggering 58.1% year-over-year in November. In recent months, high inflation resulting from the pandemic has been spurred by disruption in global supply chains as well as by strong demand resulting from stimulus packages. The persistently elevated inflation has raised concern among Federal Reserve policy makers. The uptick has lasted longer than expected, and it is showing no sign of cooling down as demand for products remains strong and fear of the new Omicron variant continues to disrupt manufacturing and transportation. If the Fed regards inflation as permanent rather than transitory, it is likely to cut back support for the economy by slowing down monthly bond purchases, and eventually by raising interest rates — likely sooner than they had previously expected.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Erosion of the American Dream //pt.knoema.com/qcogxff/erosion-of-the-american-dream 2021-12-19T19:13:43Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Erosion of the American Dream

The “American Dream” - the ideal that children will have a higher standard of living than their parents - is fading away. According to research by Opportunity Insights, only 50 percent of US children born in the 1980s earn more than their parents. This is a dramatic decline from approximately 90 percent in 1940 and is a direct reflection of lower GDP growth rates and rising income inequality.Absolute income mobility in the United States has fallen across the entire income distribution, with the largest declines for families in the middle class. The drop in absolute income mobility was reported in all 50 US states, with the largest declines concentrated in states in the industrial Midwest, such as Michigan and Illinois.These findings are unaffected by using alternative price indices to adjust for inflation, accounting for taxes and transfers, measuring income at later ages, and adjusting for changes in household size. A question US presidential candidates will have to consider is whether shrinking opportunities to raise the standard of living could encourage Gen X (born from 1965 to 1980) and Gen Y (1981 to 1996) voters to cast their votes this fall in support of platforms that include larger income redistribution (through increasing taxes on corporations and wealthy households) and increases in government social spending. Traditionally, these are core tenants of the US Democratic platform.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US vs. China: Measuring Real Economic Power //pt.knoema.com/prxhexg/us-vs-china-measuring-real-economic-power 2021-12-06T11:35:46Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US vs. China: Measuring Real Economic Power

(23 November 2021) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basicmeasure of the overall size of a country's economy and is often used to compare different countries' economic power. But what exactly is compared when someone says that the GDP of country A is larger than the GDP of country B? The System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations defines GDP as a monetary value of final goods and services — that is, what end users actually purchase — produced in a country, along with some non-market "production" such as defense or education services provided by governments, during a specific period of time (say a quarter or a year). As the UN definition of GDP implies, the whole economy can be divided into two major sectors: the so-called real sector, which includes production of goods and real assets, and the services sector, which includes production of services, everything from banking to education to healthcare. This dashboard uses U.N. data to analyze the economic powers of countries measured solely by the ability of the economy to produce goods and real assets like infrastructure, dwellings and nonresidential buildings, and machinery and equipment. We estimate GDP produced in the real sector of an economy as a sum of value added in four broad economic activity groups: Agriculture, Industry, Construction, and Transportation and Communications. Why the focus on the real sector? The strength of the real sector reflects two of the basic characteristics of an economy that determine its ability to successfully compete in a world of rising tensions between major powers: self-sufficiency and military power. The third basic economic factor affecting a country's competitiveness — the availability of resources — is not considered here.Using real sector GDP in cross-country comparison of economic power significantly changes the view of the global economic landscape. The U.S. economy, which is the world's largest economy when measured by total GDP at current US dollars, is more than $500 billion smaller than China's when measured by real sector GDP.In 2019*, the ten largest economies in terms of real sector GDP included Russia, Korea and Indonesia. In the ranking by total GDP, these countries are lower down the list, and Italy, Brazil, and Canada round out the top ten. Note: 2019 is currently the latest available year in the U.N. National Accounts Main Aggregates Database

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Labor Market Reshaped by COVID-19 //pt.knoema.com/netvmjf/labor-market-reshaped-by-covid-19 2021-12-06T11:33:23Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Labor Market Reshaped by COVID-19

(12 November 2021) The U.S. labor market has made significant progress since the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. According to the latest labor market report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in October 2021 unemployment decreased to 4.6% and the number of people employed was only 3% below the pre-pandemic figure. However, not all jobs have been bouncing back equally. BLS employment data shows uneven recovery of employment across industries. While in some industries employment is still down 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels, in other industries the number of jobs has increased by 20-40% compared to February 2020. Here are some examples how COVID has been reshaping the labor market:In September 2021, the number of jobs in car manufacturing was 19.4% below the pre-pandemic level. Despite robust demand, car manufacturers have been unable to increase production because of pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. The 2020 layoffs may also push further robotization of production; car manufacturing already has the highest robot density of any major U.S. industry. COVID accelerated the rise of e-commerce, which reduces employment in offline stores and creates jobs in delivery services. While employment in retail clothing stores is still 15% below pre-pandemic levels, the number of couriers has increased 20% since Feb. 2020.Taking care of pets and gardening are activities Americans have taken comfort in during the pandemic. The number of jobs in nursery, garden, and farm supply stores and in animal food production has increased 13.5% and 10%, respectively, compared to before the pandemic.Finally, amid soaring demand for homes, the number of mortgage brokers in September 2021 is up 37% compared to February 2020.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth //pt.knoema.com/dzptwkd/fiscal-policy-now-reducing-us-gdp-growth 2021-11-24T08:14:26Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth

(05 November 2021) Between Q2 2020 and Q1 2021, when the U.S. economy was struggling because of pandemic-related restrictions and high unemployment, an increase in government spending and tax cuts provided significant support to U.S. economic growth. However, after the fiscal stimulus programs ended in Q1 2021, the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. GDP growth turned negative, according to the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure estimate.The Hutchins Center estimates that in Q2 and Q3 2021, fiscal policy reduced U.S. real GDP growth by 2.2 and 2.4 percentage points respectively, mostly due to the end of supportive tax and benefits programs. U.S. fiscal restraint is expected to continue in 2022 and 2023. Definition: The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth. The FIM only measures the direct effects of fiscal policy and includes no multipliers.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021 //pt.knoema.com/eimbkwb/us-economic-growth-slows-in-q3-2021 2021-11-10T07:22:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021

(01 November 2021) According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in Q3 2021 U.S. GDP growth decelerated, dropping to only 2% over the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Detailed National Income and Product Accounts data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics helps to explain why real GDP growth in July through September 2021 was less than a third of the growth rates in Q1 and Q2.Slowdown in Q3 real GDP growth was caused mostly by deceleration in personal consumer spending. In Q3 2021 personal consumption, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. GDP, contributed only 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, compared to 7.4 and 7.9 percentage point contributions in Q1 and Q2 2021.The detailed BEA data shows that the deceleration in personal consumption was mostly related to a decrease in durable goods consumer spending. This decrease alone subtracted 2.7 percentage points from the U.S. real GDP growth in Q3.  The decline in personal durables purchases was mainly caused by a drop in sales of motor vehicles amid supply chain disruptions and the Delta variant surge. Personal consumption of recreational goods and of furnishings and household equipment also contracted slightly.Meanwhile, expectations for Q4 real GDP growth remain high. Based on currently available data for the main high-frequency indicators, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atalanta estimates U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2021 of 6.6% SAAR.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus //pt.knoema.com/mfklch/stock-markets-driven-by-fed-stimulus 2021-11-02T12:19:15Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus

(29 September 2021) On Sept. 22, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would probably start tightening monetary policy in 2022. Markets hardly noticed the announcement, though, likely because the Fed continues to inject $120 billion of new money into the economy each month.  So far in 2021, the Fed has already purchased U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities worth $1.1 trillion. Given that the expansionary monetary policy after the Great Recession resulted in high dependency of the stock markets on the Fed's assets expansion, shutting down the printing presses would be a difficult decision for the Federal Reserve.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth //pt.knoema.com/nkzfxg/u-s-needs-more-debt-to-sustain-growth 2021-10-13T09:30:27Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth

(07 October 2021) At the end of June of 2021, the U.S. government hit the public debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's estimates, under the existing debt limit the U.S. government will have to stop paying on its obligations such as social security programs, salaries and interest payments on treasury securities on October 18.Prolonged debates and lack of consensus in the U.S. Congress on the debt limit led to a stock market decline through September, on the expectation that government spending cuts to sustain the debt level amid high inflation will inevitably lead to an economic downturn.This week, Democrats and Republicans agreed to extend the public debt ceiling until December 3 and allow the US government to borrow an additional $480 billion.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Growing Inequity Highlighted in US President Biden's Inaugural Speech //pt.knoema.com/gixoivf/growing-inequity-highlighted-in-us-president-biden-s-inaugural-speech 2021-10-09T14:16:07Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Growing Inequity Highlighted in US President Biden's Inaugural Speech

(20 January 2020) One of the most sensitive economic effects of COVID is the reality that millions have lost their jobs. And, contrary to economic crises of the past that tended to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the corona-crisis has only widened that gap, a point US President Biden featured in his inaugural address today, "... Folks, this is a time of testing. We face an attack on our democracy and on truth, a raging virus, growing inequity, the sting of systemic racism, a climate in crisis, ..."   Unprecedented government stimulus and the partial cancellation of COVID containment restrictions boosted the US economic recovery and thereby eased the US labor market to steadier ground during 2020. The problem is the recovery has unequally benefited high-wage workers. According to the Economic Tracker from Opportunities Insights, high-wage workers were reemployed by the end of May 2020, while only 80 percent of low wage workers were able to return to work. In December 2020, the number of employed low wage workers dropped still lower to 75 percent of the pre-COVID level.Unequal recovery of labor market for high and low wage workers can partly be explained by unequal opportunities to telework. According to a BLS survey, workers with lower wages and formal educational requirements have far fewer remote work options than high wage employees.In eight US states (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Vermont) the percent of low wage workers who were unable to return to work is close to or greater than 30 percent. The disproportionately high burden of the COVID pandemic on low wage workers is not localized to the United States only. Research by Eurostat linking the labor market impact of COVID-19 on workers with their income situation also shows that low wage workers in the European Union are under higher risk of temporary lay off/reduced hours and job loss compared to high wage employees. In 2020 income loss by low wage earners was 3-6 times larger than high wage earners in half of the EU Member States.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Economic Recovery Lagging in Largest US Cities //pt.knoema.com/nxfdlvd/economic-recovery-lagging-in-largest-us-cities 2021-10-08T14:15:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Economic Recovery Lagging in Largest US Cities

(7 December 2020) Our communities may be the life blood of our national economies, but you'd never guess as much from the paucity of data readily available to support local businesses and city officials. An abundance of official national level economic indicators published anywhere from weekly to annually fuels relatively high velocity analytics compare to cities, where what limited data is available may only be published on a lag of as much as two years. The scarcity of timely socioeconomic statistics becomes especially distressing during periods of instability and recession, like the current corona-crisis. In a move to support local businesses and governments make better informed decisions, the Opportunity Insights project at Harvard University collected a database of high frequency indicators for largest US cities based on data offered by the likes of Affinity, Google, Womply, and Burning Glass. Below are just a few takeaways from this high frequency city level economic data.The Weekly Economic Index from the New York Fed shows that the US economy continues to recover from the corona-crisis but largely outside of major cities. Data on the labor market, consumer demand, mobility, and small businesses for the largest US cities shows that most cities have under performed the national average during the recovery period.While government stimulus and low interest rates have helped consumer demand recover, credit/debit card spending data shows that household expenditures remain about 5-15 percent below January 2020 levels. Washington D.C. is an outlier, with consumer spending still 30 percent below the January 2020 level. The recovery looks grim so far for the US labor market and small businesses. Not one of the 20 largest US cities has seen employment return to pre-crisis levels. And, by the end of November 2020, there were 24 to 45 percent fewer small businesses operational compared to the start of the year. One possible explanation of subdued economic recovery in largest cities would be the increased share of employees who work remotely. More stringent anti-covid restrictions could also contribute to relatively slow recovery in largest cities. More data (and time) will help to illuminate these underlying dynamics.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
LinkUp | US Real Estate Contracting Under Weight of COVID-19 //pt.knoema.com/jgqiodd/linkup-us-real-estate-contracting-under-weight-of-covid-19 2021-10-08T14:15:44Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
LinkUp | US Real Estate Contracting Under Weight of COVID-19

The real estate world has taken its share of the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, as people empty out of offices, hotels, and malls and work from their homes. Economic activity in construction and real-estate contracted sharply this year under the weight of the pandemic, with the largest decline yet recorded in April, according to the US Federal Reserve. LinkUp jobs data suggests the situation in the real estate industry will remain tough in June.In the three months between February and April, new private housing building permits in the United States declined 30 percent compared to January.  Existing home sales also decreased 25 percent in March-April 2020.Many real estate companies have cut jobs, especially since the second half of March. In May, half of those companies featured below had laid off 30 to 90 percent of their employees. Active jobs listed have dropped by 25 percent since last fall.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
New York City New Epicenter of Coronavirus Pandemic //pt.knoema.com/rdinizf/new-york-city-new-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic 2021-10-08T14:15:41Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
New York City New Epicenter of Coronavirus Pandemic

(23 March 2020)  Coronavirus pandemic is accelerating in New York City and its suburbs.More than half of the US confirmed daily cases are now in New York.In the last 7 days, every third death caused by the coronavirus occurred in New York.The number of confirmed coronavirus cases already accounts for 5% of all confirmed cases globally.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading //pt.knoema.com/ksstsae/us-china-competition-gdp-can-be-misleading 2021-10-05T08:17:10Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading

(23 September 2021) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has for years been the key economic indicator used for cross-country comparisons. The value of GDP shows how large a country's economy is, and per capita GDP is used to compare countries' productivity and technological development. However, emphasis on these directly measurable indicators often obscures qualitative characteristics of development that can significantly affect the estimates of a country's economic potential.With China becoming an economic superpower, comparison of US and Chinese economic strength has become a regular exercise for experts and research institutions. Such exercises often prioritize cross-country GDP comparison, which shows that China's economy today is 33% smaller compared to the U.S. economy, and shows an even wider gap in productivity/technological development. The most optimistic (for China) calculations indicate that China's GDP per capita is 75% smaller than that of the U.S. However, there are other metrics showing China's capability to challenge the position of the U.S. in the global economy. For example, data from the World Bank shows that China produces two times more industrial goods than the U.S. In addition, trade statistics show that China has closer trade ties with the rest of the world than the United States.But quantity is not the only factor. The gap in economic power between the U.S. and China looks much closer than GDP and productivity data shows when technological and innovation potential is accounted for through indirect measures. For example, the Economic Complexity Index constructed by Harvard’s Growth Lab suggests that China has almost caught up with the United States in the ability to sustain a diverse range of productive know-how, including sophisticated, unique capabilities, and to produce complex products that few other countries can make.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US: Small Business Selling Price Indicates Accelerating Inflation //pt.knoema.com/qykdofe/us-small-business-selling-price-indicates-accelerating-inflation 2021-09-28T09:10:29Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US: Small Business Selling Price Indicates Accelerating Inflation

(05 August 2021) The US consumer price inflation (CPI) index is probably the most tracked economic indicator today. The main question: whether the current inflation wave has been driven by temporary factors (as the Federal Reserves hopes) or is something that will turn into a long-term threat to U.S. economic growth. Findings from the small business survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) can shed light on the near-term future.According to the NFIB's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021. The observed price hikes at small businesses may point to further inflation acceleration in the coming months.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Balance Hit $7 Trillion in May //pt.knoema.com/gtgavpc/us-federal-reserve-balance-hit-7-trillion-in-may 2021-09-27T12:33:23Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal Reserve Balance Hit $7 Trillion in May

(1 June 2020) While efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic resulted in skyrocketing unemployment and sharp cuts in output, stimulus measures from the US Federal Reserve to limit the economic damage from the outbreak ballooned the Fed's balance sheet to a record $7.1 trillion in May. The value of the Federal Reserve's assets now exceeds 25 percent of US GDP.In the three month window from March 2020 through May 2020, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased by $2.9 trillion: Mortgage and related securities holdings increased by $0.5 trillion, US treasury holdings by $1.6 trillion, and lending to financial firms and markets by $0.4 trillion. In addition, the Federal Reserve provided $0.4 trillion liquidity to foreign Central Banks to support global markets. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Trade Policy Review: United States of America //pt.knoema.com/wddkmp/trade-policy-review-united-states-of-america 2021-09-25T17:46:25Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Trade Policy Review: United States of America

Surveillance of national trade policies is a fundamentally important activity running throughout the work of the WTO. At the centre of this work is the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). All WTO members are reviewed, the frequency of each country’s review varying according to its share of world trade. Event holder: WTO  

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Consumers' earnings growth expectations in United States //pt.knoema.com/qgfrloc/consumers-earnings-growth-expectations-in-united-states 2021-09-01T08:48:13Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Consumers' earnings growth expectations in United States

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Consumers' household income growth expectations //pt.knoema.com/otjuhkg/consumers-household-income-growth-expectations 2021-09-01T08:46:16Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Consumers' household income growth expectations

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Military Spending is Higher, and Growing Faster, than Other Countries //pt.knoema.com/qcmloo/us-military-spending-is-higher-and-growing-faster-than-other-countries 2021-08-04T11:18:00Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Military Spending is Higher, and Growing Faster, than Other Countries

(19 May 2021) The defense industry is one of the few that have not taken a hit in the economic aftermath of COVID-19. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2020 most countries increased their military spending from the previous year or kept it unchanged. Only 36 out of 148 countries analyzed by the Institute have cut military spending by more than 5% year-over-year.In 2020, world military expenditure increased to $2 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.3% of global GDP. 2020 is the second consecutive year in which the share of military expenditure in global GDP has increased. Between 2009 and 2018, the share of military expenditure in global GDP had declined from 2.6% to 2.1%.The US leads the world in overall military spending, with annual expenditures more than twice the defense budget of the next largest military spender, China. In 2019 and 2020, US military expenditures also grew faster than those in any of the next ten highest military spenders, which include China, India, and Russia. US defense spending now exceeds the aggregate military expenditure of the next ten countries put together.Analysis of data for 1992-2020 shows a correlation between the ratio of US military expenditure to other major countries and the world military expenditure grows. The growth in world spending reflects not only the increase in US military expenditure, but also the acceleration of military expenditure in countries seeking to preserve military parity.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: A Price Storm in Used Car and Car Rental Markets //pt.knoema.com/poxiyxc/united-states-a-price-storm-in-used-car-and-car-rental-markets 2021-07-02T13:48:55Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: A Price Storm in Used Car and Car Rental Markets

(17 June 2021) With the US vaccination progress continuing and many anti-COVID restrictions easing, American's driving activity is recovering, and the increased mobility combined with stimulus checks, pent-up demand, and high credit availability have quickly translated into an increase in car sales. Many Americans wanting to buy a car are stumbled on car shortages at auto dealerships, though. This growing demand and lack of supply have already translated into sharp price growth in the used car and car rental markets. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the price growth for used cars accounted for about one-third of the overall increase in CPI in May. In March 2021, new light vehicle sales in the US increased to 18 million units (SAAR) — the highest monthly sales level since June 2005.US car manufacturers not only failed to increase production, but in many cases had to pause assembly lines due to the semiconductor shortage. Car imports from Canada and Mexico — two largest sources of US car imports — also declined.The mismatch between demand and supply brought domestic car inventories and inventory-to-sales ratio to a record low in April 2021.The shift of consumer demand to used cars and rental cars led to price hikes. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which measures wholesale pricing and typically runs several months ahead of the behavior of the consumer price index for used cars, suggests that the price of used cars will likely grow further in the coming months.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Federal and State Motor Fuel Taxes: State Profiles //pt.knoema.com/btasdfd/us-federal-and-state-motor-fuel-taxes-state-profiles 2021-06-25T13:36:11Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Federal and State Motor Fuel Taxes: State Profiles

Across the United States motorists typically purchase most fuels at per gallon rates that are far less than what others pay in Europe and elsewhere. Within the US, however, significant disparities exist in both the total fuel tax per gallon as well as the share that is attributable to state versus federal agencies. In today's Viz of the Day you can shop the country and explore general fuel tax rates in effect as of January 1, 2016. Note: The reported fuel tax rates include, but are not limited to, excise taxes, environmental taxes, special taxes, and inspection fees, exclusive of county and local taxes as well as any state taxes based on gross or net receipts.   

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US-China Trade War Tariffs //pt.knoema.com/angeptb/us-china-trade-war-tariffs 2021-06-03T11:18:00Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US-China Trade War Tariffs

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: COVID-19 Tracker (Updates Daily) //pt.knoema.com/kaocfqd/united-states-covid-19-tracker-updates-daily 2021-05-24T15:19:56Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Tracker (Updates Daily)

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: New Twists in COVID-19 Statistics //pt.knoema.com/qaremqc/united-states-new-twists-in-covid-19-statistics 2021-05-24T14:08:23Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: New Twists in COVID-19 Statistics

(Published: 21 June 2020. Updated: 19 August 2020)  In August, after the US CDC relinquished direct control over US COVID-19 statistics, daily cases started to decline while deaths stabilized at nearly 1,000 deaths per day. Analysis of COVID-19 statistics collected by the COVID Tracking Project now shows that at least half of the decrease in daily cases between July 29 and August 17 is explained by falling testing rates.COVID cases decreased by 21 percent between July 29 and August 17, while testing decreased by 11 percent. Without that decrease in testing rates, all else held equal, US daily COVID cases would be down by only just over 10 percent. The declining testing trend is not isolated, but a reality reported by 44 states and the District of Columbia during the first half of August. Washington state, an area of early community spread in the United States, reported a 96 percent decreasing in testing over this period - 200-500 tests per day compared to 20,000 per day in mid July.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Reopening Triggered Resurgence of COVID-19 //pt.knoema.com/obdarq/us-reopening-triggered-resurgence-of-covid-19 2021-05-24T13:09:38Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Reopening Triggered Resurgence of COVID-19

(11 June 2020)  When social protests erupted across the United States in mid-April against the COVID-19 lockdown numerous health experts warned that any resumption of normal activities would be disastrous and lead to an overwhelming number of new infections. Experts urged citizens to be patient and pressed government leaders for restrictions through at least mid-May. For the most part, expert voices were drowned out. Today the latest COVID-19 data confirms what health experts warned of with at least 10 US states suffering a second wave of the disease.As of June 10, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Arizona, South Carolina, and Utah grew by 170-210 percent compared to the first peak in those states.Arizona has suffered the most, pushing Arizona authorities to activate emergency plans for hospitals. Since reopening on May 15, the number of daily cases in Arizona has tripled. In addition, the number of currently hospitalized patients has increased 58 percent and number the of ventilated patients is up 23 percent.US stocks tanked as cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve and rising coronavirus infection rates prompted investor concern. All three major indexes posted their biggest single-day declines since March 16.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Consumer Demographic Trends at US County Level //pt.knoema.com/llaurad/consumer-demographic-trends-at-us-county-level 2021-05-21T09:48:16Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Consumer Demographic Trends at US County Level

(20 March 2020) On the example of the state of Texas, Knoema presents public data indicators and visualizations to facilitate target consumer analysis.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: State-Based Look at Coronavirus Testing and Cases //pt.knoema.com/qupyrlc/united-states-state-based-look-at-coronavirus-testing-and-cases 2021-05-20T11:37:27Z Balaji S pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000220
United States: State-Based Look at Coronavirus Testing and Cases

Balaji S pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000220
United States: COVID-19 Small Business Loan Allocations Across US States //pt.knoema.com/mnyjozb/united-states-covid-19-small-business-loan-allocations-across-us-states 2021-05-17T14:59:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Small Business Loan Allocations Across US States

(8 May 2020) The US Government launched the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) in early April to help small businesses, self-employed workers, sole proprietors, certain nonprofit organizations, and tribal businesses continue paying their workers. Between April 13 and May 1, $423 billion of loans (of the $669 billion target) were approved and distributed to the recipients. Critics argue that the PPP distribution is uneven across states, pointing out that a disproportionate share of the money has headed to places where fewer people are sick, while small businesses in the worst-hit states, like New York and New Jersey, have not been able to access the fund at anywhere close to the same rates. If you strictly consider the percentage of small businesses that received a loan, between 15% and 20% of small businesses in midwestern states, such as North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas, received the PPP loans. In California, Texas, and New York less than 10% received the loans.But looking at the percentage of small businesses that received PPP loans alone may distort the picture. The data also shows that each state received a roughly equal amount of PPP loans per person employed by a small business. Below we capture this data two ways: first, a comparison of the value of approved loans with the number of small businesses employees, and, second, the number of initial claims in the last six weeks relative to government loan disbursements.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Hawaii: Tourism Essentially Zero Under COVID-19, but Recovery Path Evident //pt.knoema.com/hvlgkvd/hawaii-tourism-essentially-zero-under-covid-19-but-recovery-path-evident 2021-05-17T14:02:39Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Hawaii: Tourism Essentially Zero Under COVID-19, but Recovery Path Evident

Hawaii's tourism industry has ground to a halt under COVID-19, with almost all trans-Pacific flights to Hawaii canceled, the US CDC "no sail order" on all cruise ships extended through the end of July, and the state implementing strict measures to lockdown the islands. Only 4,564 tourists visited Hawaii by air in April compared to a combined total of roughly 850,000 by air and cruise in April 2019. This dropoff corresponds to a 98.2 percent decrease in total visitor days year-on-year, a figure that essentially repeats nearly any way you slice it. For example, arrivals from Japan decreased by 99.5 percent, from other Asian countries, 99.4 percent, and so on. While the abrupt, multi-month suspension of nearly all tourism has created economic stress, the data also illuminates the potential resiliency of this critical industry. The Coincident Economic Activity Index developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia—combining four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic—shows a nearly 55% decrease in economic activity in Hawaii between January and May with a slight recovery in June.Buried in the tourism statistics, the long-term nature of repeat tourists, spending a month or more at a time in the island paradise, speaks to the effective strategy of the real estate and time share industries that draw in large investment and tourism dollars. These visitors will be back as travel and the state reopens. In all likelihood, flash deals will also draw back first-timers, eager to reclaim lost vacation opportunities during COVID as well. One question in this outlook, however, for Hawaii and other similar tourist destinations globally is how much of the support services and small businesses will withstand the COVID-period economic conditions to cater to tourists (and claim their dollars) when they do return?

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
50 States (and Counties) Divided: COVID-19 Cases and Testing Centers //pt.knoema.com/dzagmyc/50-states-and-counties-divided-covid-19-cases-and-testing-centers 2021-05-11T17:31:12Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
50 States (and Counties) Divided: COVID-19 Cases and Testing Centers

(26 May 2020)  COVID-19 response in any country with a population size and dispersion like the United States, China, and Russia, brings inherent challenges that are only aggravated by the digital divide, logistical realities, and social attitudes and biases. AllClear, a New York City non-profit dedicated to empowering communities with technology and data to overcome COVID-19 and get back on track, gives us an opportuntity for the first step in a data-based look into how the number of testing centers across US counties stacks up relative to population and COVID-19 cases to date. What does the data tell us? While in general, there is a positive relationship between the number of testing centers and population per county (as well as between the number of centers and confirmed cases), there is a huge dispersion across US counties. This may point to substantial differences in the capacity of testing centers - a critical gap in this data - or deficiencies in funding and resourcing for testing facilities as counties compete for state funding and states compete for federal funding. Following are a couple case examples we pulled from the data worthy of further investigation:Hamilton County, Ohio. With a population of more than 800,000 and nearly 2,500 confirmed COVID-19 cases, Hamilton county has one COVID-19 testing center. In contrast, similarly populated Snohomish county, Washington and Multnomah county, Oregon have comparable confirmed COVID-19 cases but 41 and 83 testing centers, respectively.Queens county, New York. As prominently covered in US media, Queens has suffered extensive community spread. With the second-highest amount of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US and the 11th largest population, Queens has only 34 COVID-19 testing centers. This is almost four times less than in King county, Washington, which has a comparable number of confirmed cases and deaths similar population total.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Cannabis Industry and Marijuana Use Statistics //pt.knoema.com/fcqzrt/us-cannabis-industry-and-marijuana-use-statistics 2021-04-29T06:04:31Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Cannabis Industry and Marijuana Use Statistics

(15 April 2021) On January 1, 2014, establishments licensed by the state of Colorado began commercial sales of marijuana to the general public, which led cannabis industry stock values to skyrocket by about 200% from January to March 2014 as measured by the MJIC Marijuana Global Index. Since then, 15 more states in the US have adopted the legal use of marijuana, with the New York becoming the 16th state and the nation’s second-largest legal marijuana market in March of this year. Moreover, on March 31, the Senate Majority Leader supported the initiative to legalize the market at the federal level. Gallup Poll Social Survey responses over the past twenty years indicate that support for marijuana legalization has been growing steadily in the United States. The most recent survey, conducted in 2020, finds that 68% of US adults now support legalization.  According to the 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, in Oregon, Colorado, Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Washington, Nevada, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and the District of Columbia more than 20% of the population aged 12+ years had regularly used cannabis in the previous year. Crime statistics from the FBI show that these states have slightly higher crime rates (measured as the number of crimes per 1000 population) than other states.  As more states move towards the legalization of marijuana, the cannabis industry continues to grow rapidly. The MJIC Marijuana North American Index hit a two-year high in February 2021.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Mass Shootings and Homicide Statistics //pt.knoema.com/rzgeudd/united-states-mass-shootings-and-homicide-statistics 2021-04-28T13:55:41Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Mass Shootings and Homicide Statistics

(13 April 2021) US President Joe Biden called on Congress to ban the sale of assault weapons in the country during his speech at the White House on the March 22 shooting in Colorado, which killed 10 people. In 2020, the number of mass shootings in the US, as well as the number of victims (both killed and injured), hit a seven-year high, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Nonetheless, in a country with a disproportionate share of the world's guns—the US accounts for 5% of the world's population and 45% of privately owned firearms— advocates of gun rights leverage other crime statistics to moderate calls for stricter gun laws:The assault rate in the United States is lower than in some other developed countries and actually decreased in 2018 (the latest available year for this kind of data) according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.Likewise, the US homicide rate decreased in 2018, though it remains high compared to other developed nations.Most crimes are committed by illegally obtained guns that are by definition beyond the reach of the legal firearm retail industry that's targeted by some policy proposals. With deep philosophical differences between Democrats and Republicans about how to tackle the gun violence issue, it seems unlikely that tighter gun safety legislation proposed by Biden — including a ban on assault weapons and closing background check loopholes — will be approved by Congress any time soon.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
List of United States cities by population: Data, Map and Rank //pt.knoema.com/rivfkve/list-of-united-states-cities-by-population-data-map-and-rank 2021-04-23T17:32:57Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
List of United States cities by population: Data, Map and Rank

New York with more then 8 million people (according to 2010 Census) is the largest city in the United States. Besides New York there are 8 US cities which population exceed 1 million persons: Los Angeles (CA), Chicago (IL), Houston (TX), Philadelphia (PA), Phoenix (AZ), San Antonio (TX), San Diego (CA) and Dallas (TX). Over 160 milion people live in 5000 largest cities of the US.  USA Population | China Population | India Population | Indonesia Population | Brazil Population Top 50 Cities in the US by Population Top 100 Cities in the US by Population Top 1000 Cities in the US by Population World Population Ranking

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Population //pt.knoema.com/plrtvy/us-population 2021-04-23T17:32:48Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Population

United States of America is the third most populous country in the world trailing only China and India with current population of 321.8 million persons or 4% of the total world's population. Moreover, US is one of only two developed economies (the second is Japan) being listed in top-10 countries by population. Large population and correspondingly large workforce are not the least factors behind the leading positions of United States in the world economy. United States, as the major part of developed world, refer to the low-fertility countries where each woman gives, on average, birth to less than 2 children. So, starting from 2010 total fertility rate in US is below 1.9. Though such countries generally have low population growth rates, in 2010-2015 they still accounted for 46 percent of the world's population. Concerning future population projections, United States alongside other 8 countries is expected to account for more than a half of the world population increase in 2015-2050. Population division of the UN expects the US population to exceed 400 million people in 2058. However, US is going to lose some positions in the list of the world's most populated countries. Thus, population of Nigeria, currently the seventh most populated country in the world, is projected to surpass that of the US by 2049 as a consequence of Nigeria's population growth rate, which is currently the highest among 10 largest countries in the world. See also: Top 50 Cities in the US by Population, Top 100 Cities in the US by Population, Top 1000 Cities in the US by PopulationChina PopulationIndia PopulationUSA PopulationIndonesia PopulationBrazil Population World PopulationPakistan PopulationNigeria PopulationBangladesh PopulationRussia PopulationJapan Population World Population Ranking

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Traditional vs Alternative Data: Which has the Better Measure of the US Labor Market? //pt.knoema.com/tfghnhg/traditional-vs-alternative-data-which-has-the-better-measure-of-the-us-labor-market 2021-04-22T16:22:33Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Traditional vs Alternative Data: Which has the Better Measure of the US Labor Market?

(12 June 2020) When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May 2020 employment report some analysts claimed that data on initial unemployment insurance claims was wrong because it contradicted the official unemployment figures where there were broad gains in employment across industries. Higher frequency data, including mobility trends and small business openings, also pointed to labor market recovery. There's little doubt that high frequency alternative indicators offer important, maybe even critical depth and color as we try to understanding modern market behavior and economies, but alt data is not a panacea. It is part of the mosaic of data increasingly relied on by analysts and weighted according to the relevant time horizon and methodological approach.A couple of months ago we demonstrated how so-called alternative data had warned about the COVID-19 induced recession in early March while traditional leading economic indicators were still predicting growth would accelerate, making a strong case for wrapping alternative data into the sphere of leading economic indicators.At the same time, even with the growth in availability of certain high frequency indicators as foot traffic, mobility, container ships, web traffic, credit and debit card spending, analysts must address fundamental questions around reliability and availability. Below we share what a few sample high frequency labor market and mobility indicators tell us about the current US labor market.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US | 2020 is the Deadliest Year in US Drug Overdose Epidemic //pt.knoema.com/bzaifsd/us-2020-is-the-deadliest-year-in-us-drug-overdose-epidemic 2021-04-15T07:02:41Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US | 2020 is the Deadliest Year in US Drug Overdose Epidemic

(9 April 2021)  As the coronavirus forced shutdowns, the number of drug deaths in the US started spiking. The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that in 2020* the rate over overdose deaths in the US rose 25% over the previous year. Isolation, stress, loss of income and lower availability of support and health services during COVID-19 health crisis are thought to be the key reasons for growing number of drug overdose deaths.Drug overdoses killed an estimated 85,516 people during a twelve-month period ending in August 2020. Deaths from synthetic opioids, the highest contributor to drug overdose deaths, increased over 50% year-over-year.A state-by-state breakdown of CDC data shows that twenty states reported a 30% or greater increase in drug overdose deaths from August 2019 to August 2020. Louisiana and Washington, DC, recorded the steepest increases — 52% and 58%, respectively. * year-over-year in the 12 months leading up to August 2020.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Has Devalued Online Dollar //pt.knoema.com/dvkiamc/covid-19-pandemic-has-devalued-online-dollar 2021-04-15T06:26:28Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Has Devalued Online Dollar

(5 April 2021) In 2020, for the first time since Adobe began tracking digital purchasing power, US consumers were getting less for their online dollars than they had the previous year.The rise in consumer demand and online sales in the second half of 2020, stimulated by US government spending, easing of monetary policy, and pent-up demand from the early months of the pandemic, was met with supply chain disruptions and rising prices.The online dollar continued to weaken in the opening months of 2021. In February, online inflation was evident in 13 product categories out of 18 tracked by Adobe. In the same month a year ago, online prices were increasing for only five product categories. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to stay well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the reverse in the long-term online pricing trend could be an early signal of accelerating inflation in the near future.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Mass Shootings in the United States //pt.knoema.com/jdcgxpe/mass-shootings-in-the-united-states 2021-04-07T05:48:10Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Mass Shootings in the United States

The conversation in the United States has returned to an all too familiar topic, “the latest mass shooting,” a reference to the attack by Stephen Paddock on an outdoor music venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on the evening of 1 October 2018. Paddock murdered 59 people and injured another 241 people. To date in 2018, the US has experienced 426 mass shootings, in which 362 people have been killed and another 1,289 injured.Data also shows that during the last five years, the deadliest states—California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois—also have the largest distribution of handguns. Regulators remain politically incapacitated by out-of-context pleas for protection of the 2nd amendment right to bear arms, heavy financial support and sway of the National Rifle Association (NRA), and a voters who remain concerned that regulations of guns will infringe on lawful use of guns.In the days surrounding the shooting in Las Vegas, publicity suggested the NRA and US government understood action was needed. The NRA and US legislators turned to discussions about prohibitions on possession and sale of the equipment used by Paddock to automatize his weapons while Congress also suspending deliberation about the gun silencers.Yet, the Administration also rolled back legislation requiring the US Social Security administration to report to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System the names of people with documented mental disorders. Does regulation work? Globally, the answer is yes. In the US, the answer should also be yes, at least if you look at the most recent data after former President Barack Obama announced in one of his first weekly addresses of 2016 new measures to increase background checks on gun buyers. The number of mass shootings decreased from 385 to 276 and the number of firearms permits was also slashed, though one could argue whether someone with an intent to kill would necessarily be deterred by a permitting process. Undoubtedly, regulations aside, the statistics in the US remain alarming.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Fewer Crimes, Not Homicides, in the Year of COVID-19 //pt.knoema.com/rlehfbb/united-states-fewer-crimes-not-homicides-in-the-year-of-covid-19 2021-04-06T17:06:11Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Fewer Crimes, Not Homicides, in the Year of COVID-19

Current data on US crime rates is difficult to come by. Most data from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is only available through 2018, a few exceptions such as offense clearance statistics go through 2019, and for 2020, the year of COVID, you have to either reference preliminary figures published in September that cover January-July or bounce from metro area to metro area to find the statistics you're looking for. So, we did both! COVID-19's reach is well beyond health, hitting employment, education, and potentially even crime. According to preliminary data from the FBI, reported violent and property crimes for the first six months of 2020 have decreased compared to the first six months of 2019. Taking a more local approach, we found that while total crime also decreased in some metro areas as COVID took hold nationwide, the reduction was mainly due to fewer reported crimes such as larceny, burglary, robbery, and auto theft, the most common criminal offenses. In contrast, homicides, which typically constitute less than 1 percent of all offenses, have increased.In July, the city of Atlanta, Georgia, went into a state of emergency after weeks of escalating homicide figures: the total number of murders from January through July—when COVID-19 peaked in Georgia—was almost 60 percent higher than over the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the overall number of criminal offenses in Atlanta was around 20 percent less than the previous year.Similar pictures were observed in St. Louis, Missouri, and Denver, Colorado where the number of homicides were as much as 37 percent and 50 percent higher compared to 2019 during the COVID-19 peak period in July. In contrast, the overall crime level was mostly unchanged in St. Louis and about 12 percent higher YoY in Denver. You may wonder whether the increased number of homicides was connected with protests against COVID-19 lockdown measures that took place in April and May as well as Black Lives Matter protests that swept the country for the better part of May and June (and far longer in some locations). The data suggests otherwise given the relatively localized number of violent protests and the persistently rising homicide rates through August and September. Even in cities with prolonged protests, such as Portland, you can see below that crime rates in 2020 are below 2019 levels. That said, it is interesting to note that while the homicide rates have been on the increase, so too have background checks for firearms, with the year-on-year percent increase oscillating within the range of 20-40 percent from January through May to as high as 80 percent above 2019 rates in July 2020, according to the FBI.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Weekly Jobless Claims //pt.knoema.com/deqfocg/us-weekly-jobless-claims 2021-03-19T15:53:03Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Weekly Jobless Claims

The number of new jobless claims reported weekly to the U.S. Department of Labor is considered a leading forward indicator for jobs growth in the US labor market and is thereby linked to expectations for economic growth and potential moves by the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. According to the most recent data:For the week ended June 29, the number of initial jobless claims - e.g. new jobless claims - decreased by 8,000 to 221,000. However, 4-weeks moving average, which smoothes fluctuations, indicates a small increase in jobless claims.The total number of persons receiving unemployment benefits - e.g. "continued claims" or "insured unemployment" - also decreased by 8,000 to 1,686,000. Despite the number of people filing applications for unemployment benefits decreased slightly last week, the numbers continue to rise since late 2018. So, if in 2016-2018 years, jobless claims decreased on average by around 500 persons each week, in 2019, they started to increase by around 250 persons weekly. This trend may indicate that the period of historically low unemployment comes to an end and economic growth shifts into a lower gear. This may result in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its July meeting.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
COVID-19 Threatens Tax Base of US States' Budgets //pt.knoema.com/fqcjkt/covid-19-threatens-tax-base-of-us-states-budgets 2021-03-19T15:49:55Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
COVID-19 Threatens Tax Base of US States' Budgets

Individual US state tax policies shape the vulnerability of local economies to systemic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and, in an election year, will play out on the campaign trail as the repercussions reverberate through households, corporations, and the finance and banking industries and drive people to the the streets to protest COVID-19 economic conditions. Nine states do not tax personal income—Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming—and include the top 5 US states (in bold) based on revenue derived from sales tax. Sales tax, of course, during COVID has taken a direct hit as consumers have withdrawn, unemployment has skyrocketed, and production of goods and services plummeted.  Below we feature the tax profiles of each of the 50 US states with a special feature on Texas to show how states vary in terms of tax base. In 2014, the State of Texas received $5.8 billion in oil and gas production taxes, more tax revenue from oil and gas production than any year since 1978, and then oil prices plummeted. Unfortunately for Texas, 2020 is shaping up to be a rough year not only for sales tax, but oil and gas production taxes. History may mean Texas is better equipped for rapid policy response, but the reality on the ground is that unemployment and a faltering economy will have real consequences no matter the immediate policy responses. 

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Unemployment Claims Hitting New & Alarming Records //pt.knoema.com/zrhxeib/us-unemployment-claims-hitting-new-alarming-records 2021-03-19T15:46:32Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Unemployment Claims Hitting New & Alarming Records

(2 April 2020)  Coronavirus is costing many Americans their jobs. According to the US Department of Labor, jobless claims doubled last week hitting 6.6 million. That means initial claims rose more than 2,000% over the last two weeks alone. This is the highest level of initial claims ever reported. With layoffs continuing as US businesses remain closed, economists had expected new jobless claims to rise tenfold. Today's figures are thus a chilling look into the reality of the US economy.The week ending March 14, jobless claims were 282,000, a figure that was already a 33% increase from 211,000 the week prior.According to the Department of Labor, services industries, such as accommodation and food services, have been hit the hardest. Other industries that have been heavily impacted include: health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros //pt.knoema.com/pkahmsc/queri-the-us-federal-debt-outstanding-is-just-a-number-27-and-12-zeros 2021-02-15T06:10:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros

(02 February 2021) Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. In November 2020, US voters went to the ballot box and sent a Democrat back into the White House to stare down a federal deficit that grew under President Trump from $19 trillion in January 2016 to more than $27 trillion the day that Joe Biden was inaugurated. As you can imagine, the deficit hawks are out in force once again. The usual argument against more deficit spending, even in the midst of a disaster like the COVID-19 shutdown and prevailing economic conditions, is that the US can’t afford to spend that kind of money.   For true deficit hawks it’s this idea of repaying the debt, of the burden on future generations, that leads to the ideal of fiscal conservatism. So, let’s pull that thread, as they say: If the United States were to adopt that logic and start down this repayment path, given the way the US allocates discretionary and non-discretionary expenditures, what options are available today?The US Department of Defense is the largest single discretionary expenditure in the Federal budget, a $750 billion budget item and growing. If you were to cut that in half and use the savings to pay down debt, in addition to trimming around the edges of discretionary social programs to the tune of another $25 billion, you could maybe net $325 billion to pay down the debt (after accounting for social assistance for jobs lost to cuts in the defense sector.) But this is not enough to slow the increase in the size of the debt outstanding because we still have to pay interest.  If we turn to non-discretionary spending, we find that most of the money for Medicare and Medicaid goes to the oldest and frailest and the most costly to keep alive. So, what, we'd phase out government payments for people over 85? Gradually raise the retirement age and collect social security payroll taxes on all income earned without a cap, not cutting taxes? It is interesting how when you start to study the debt question and pull in the details over the past 40 years of debt, GDP, and interest rates, and match it against who was the US President at the time, everything becomes much clearer. So, too, does an essential point about the debt overhang and what it does or does not mean for an economy like the United States. Rather than focus on debt, we should also consider the relative usefulness of deficit spending, e.g the relative value of each dollar of debt to the change in GDP. Failure to spend is very likely more dangerous than spending too much. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
EIA Energy Conference 2017 //pt.knoema.com/xthjfbe/eia-energy-conference-2017 2021-02-11T12:17:14Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
EIA Energy Conference 2017

The 2017 EIA Energy Conference will feature leaders from the coal, petroleum, natural gas, electric, renewable, and nuclear energy sectors. In the conference, the policymakers shaping energy legislation and regulations will speak out as well as company executives developing and transporting energy resources, researchers finding energy solutions, and entrepreneurs pushing the latest energy technologies.The EIA Energy Conference has attendees from all 50 states. Changing technologies, regulations, and suppliers are likely to emerge over the next several years, and many people at this conference will shape those changes and influence energy markets over the next decade. Regulators, executives, and researchers will talk about collaborating across the energy supply chain. Their efforts to modernize and increase efficiency are redefining business processes and operations throughout all energy sectors. The following topics will be discussed at the conference:Gasoline fuel quality: The looming octane shortageRenewable project financing: Current and futureThe energy-water nexus and induced seismicityThe future of U.S. nuclear powerNatural gas infrastructure to serve growing marketsHuman behavior and energy use in buildingsPetroleum exports: Competing in the global marketElectrification in developing countriesCoal—natural gas competition: The current state of play"Big Data" and energy informationEnergy data transparencyGlobal transportation, electric vehicles, and fuel demand Date of Event: 26 - 27 June 2017 Event Holder: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Venue: Washington Hilton, Washington, DC

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal" //pt.knoema.com/qdyufig/prosper-insights-and-analytics-us-consumer-are-getting-used-to-new-normal 2021-01-27T13:09:54Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal"

(Updated: 18 Jan 2021; Originally published: 15 June 2020) January 2021 consumer survey data from Prosper Insight and Analytics demonstrates that US consumers are getting used to their new lifestyles and have shifted from wishing for the pandemic to go away to just dealing with the “new normal”. Consumer Spending. US consumer confidence took a big hit in January as consumers looked ahead to the next few months. The US economy is sending so many mixed signals right now that you might be better off consulting a psychic rather than using traditional measures to get a handle on its trajectory. Consumer confidence dropped -12.6 percent (500 bps) from December 2020 to January 2021.Consumer Confidence. Unlike consumer confidence, consumer mood (aka consumer sentiment), increased 0.6 percent (60 bps) in January. Prosper’s Consumer Mood Index is a composite measure of 10 factors including how people feel about family, finances, health, relationships and more to gauge sentiment.Consumer Sentiment. In another sign of consumer schizophrenia, Prosper’s Consumer Spending forecast shows a slight downward trend coming out of the holiday season, decreasing -2.3 percent (-186 bps). As we are learning, consumers are finding some different categories to spend their money on. Consumer softlines are trending down while hardlines like home remodeling and related categories are doing much better.  Just hang on for a potential case of “consumer spending whiplash” as President Elect Biden announced an additional one-time payment to supplement the $600 that was sent out previously with an extra $1,400 per adult family member and more for households with children. Some economists are afraid this amount of economic stimulus may provide a big jolt, changing the current trajectory of the economy a bit too quickly. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus and the US Consumer by Prosper Insights & Analytics //pt.knoema.com/rxqwxpf/coronavirus-and-the-us-consumer-by-prosper-insights-analytics 2021-01-18T14:21:09Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Coronavirus and the US Consumer by Prosper Insights & Analytics

(Published - March 18, 2020. Data updated - August 17, 2020) Prosper Insights & Analytics has 18 years of experience producing market leading monthly survey-based research of consumers' overall confidence. In its most recent survey, Prosper asked consumers about their concerns with regard to the coronavirus pandemic and the related cancellation of major events. You can explore Prosper's latest findings in depth below, but we'll give the spoiler: 82% of US consumers expressed one form of concern or another and believe that they will somehow experience direct consequences of the pandemic. Moreover, for the first time in six months there is a decline in observed consumer confidence.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
COVID-19 Impact on US and China Consumer Behaviour | Prosper Insights & Analytics //pt.knoema.com/tvdlznd/covid-19-impact-on-us-and-china-consumer-behaviour-prosper-insights-analytics 2021-01-18T14:18:26Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID-19 Impact on US and China Consumer Behaviour | Prosper Insights & Analytics

(Published - April 30, 2020) In China, people remain confident about current and future economic conditions, which may point to a fast rebound in consumer demand in the second quarter of 2020, according to Prosper Insights & Analytics.  In comparison, US consumers are more concerned about coronavirus and its impact on the economy. US consumers have responded by shopping less (72.1% of adults 18+), whereas Chinese consumers express a more diversified approach to spending during the pandemic and prefer to shop at less busy times.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Consumers' Financial Plans Divided Across Party Lines //pt.knoema.com/ftfeyy/us-consumers-financial-plans-divided-across-party-lines 2021-01-18T14:17:59Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Consumers' Financial Plans Divided Across Party Lines

(31 August 2020)  The world's attention may be pivoted to the upcoming US election and whether Trump will be re-elected, but Americans are divided on more things than just their preference for president. Spending and consumption also appear to be divided across party lines, according to data from the Prosper Insights and Analytics August 2020 survey.Among the 7,000+ US consumers ages 18 and older who participated in the survey, consumers who self identify as preferring the Democratic Party are playing things closer to the vest when it comes to critical financial decisions. They are being more considerate, saving more, and deferring purchases they want to make in favor of the purchases they really need.  In contrast, their Republican-leaning counterparts have no plans to reduce spending or make any sort of changes in their spending and consumption habits. In addition, they are buying stocks more aggressively hoping to take advantage of the rising stock market.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans //pt.knoema.com/rrwrenc/prosper-insights-retailers-beware-us-consumers-changing-their-holiday-spending-plans 2021-01-18T14:17:35Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans

(20 October 2020)  Despite unprecedented government stimulus packages in the wake of COVID-19, the latest data shows that consumer demand remains subdued and is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels ahead of the winter holiday season. "Consumers are taking advantage of a variety of offerings from retailers this holiday season including earlier sales promotions and shipping options,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Consumers are focusing on making the holidays special for others but are playing it by ear when it comes to those ‘extra’ items they might get for themselves.” As online sales have skyrocketed during the pandemic, it comes as no surprise that the majority (60%) of consumers say they plan to purchase holiday items online this year. Nearly all (91%) online shoppers plan to take advantage of free shipping, while another 44 percent plan to use buy online, pick up in store and 16 percent plan to use same-day deliver, according to the Holiday Spending Survey from Prosper Insights and Analytics. Additional highlights from Prosper's October consumer survey:The percentage of respondents that planned as of October to celebrate winter holidays in general decreased 4.1 p.p. from last year to 87.4 percent, which is a record low since 2007 when Prosper began collecting this data.While the average consumer's spending on holiday gifts for their family will be relatively unchanged from last year ($468), at constant 2007 dollars, that's actually 2.6 percent less than the 2009 winter holiday season, when the United States was coming out of the global financial crisis.The share of spending in the '$100 or less' bracket will increase by about 2 percent, displacing spending in the '$100-$500' bracket.On average a record 60 percent of all holiday shopping will be done online, a growth of 8 p.p. from the last year. The share of consumers who intend to do 100% of their shopping online also is on the rise, expected to increase to 8% in 2020 compared to 3.6 percent in 2019.Gift cards remain the most desired gift, according to respondents, although more people compared to last year said they would like to receive home decor and improvements items.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: TSA Busier than 'Usual', Even if a Shadow of 2019 Levels //pt.knoema.com/zxxlqxe/united-states-tsa-busier-than-usual-even-if-a-shadow-of-2019-levels 2021-01-14T13:51:28Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
United States: TSA Busier than 'Usual', Even if a Shadow of 2019 Levels

(19 October 2020)  Yesterday the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened more than one million passengers through domestic security checkpoints for the first time since mid-March when the COVID-19 crisis paralyzed air travel. With the exception of the US Labor Day weekend (4-7 September) October is the only month since mid-March with repeat days of 900,000+ travelers screened, totaling more than 15.1 million passengers month-to-date, compared to 21.5 million for the entire prior month.The airline industry is of course struggling across the board compared to 2019 when October passenger throughput at TSA checkpoints would often surpass 2.5 million per day.Restrictions on international travel have also translated into foreign passengers making up a smaller share of travelers screened through US domestic checkpoints. The share of passengers cleared through TSA checkpoints in July 2020 that were domestic climbed by more than 16 percentage points compared to the level reported for July 2019.

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
Sulpetro | Liquefied Petroleum Gas Plants Overview, Texas, US //pt.knoema.com/jakinvb/sulpetro-liquefied-petroleum-gas-plants-overview-texas-us 2021-01-14T08:16:49Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Sulpetro | Liquefied Petroleum Gas Plants Overview, Texas, US

(10 December 2020) Texas is the leader in refinery LPG production in the United States. Learn about the facilities behind this key statistic and more about the Texas LPG landscape with the interactive visualizations below. This data sample from Sulpetro has been collected from Federal and State agencies in addition to oil & gas think-tanks, corporate financials, and other paid-proprietary sources to offer comprehensive insight into the Texas NGL industry.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Global Economic Trends: US Overtaken by China as a Global Trade Power //pt.knoema.com/hxkevje/global-economic-trends-us-overtaken-by-china-as-a-global-trade-power 2020-12-25T05:45:23Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Global Economic Trends: US Overtaken by China as a Global Trade Power

(14 December 2020) Back in 2018, with an eye toward protecting the domestic market from imports, improving the US trade balance, and creating jobs in manufacturing, US President Trump engaged in a so called 'trade war' with China, the country with the largest trade surplus with the United States, although it arguably originated with a much broader list of targets given that steel and aluminum were at the center of the new tariff rates. Nearly three years, one global health pandemic, and a lost election later, President Trump's economic pressure on China has not brought the US closer to the expected trade goals. To the contrary, the dominance of the US trade paradigm may have shifted in China's favor in a way that will realign global trade flows for years to come, especially in light of China's relatively rapid recovery from corona-crisis that stands to strengthen China's global trade position.In 2000, only 32 countries had a total trade in goods turnover with China in excess of their total trade with the United States. On the other end of the spectrum was the United States, which boasted larger bilateral trade turnovers than China with more than 160 countries.Fast forward to 20 years and China has totally changed global trade patterns. China's total bilateral trade turnover exceeds that of the United States in 130 countries, while the US surpasses China in only 58 countries.Among the world's largest economies only France, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Canada now trade more with the United States than with China, and the US advantage over China in India is at the level of statistical error. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Mass Closure of US Bank Branches | Driven by Fintech? //pt.knoema.com/kxfrchc/mass-closure-of-us-bank-branches-driven-by-fintech 2020-12-25T05:43:53Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Mass Closure of US Bank Branches | Driven by Fintech?

(18 December 2020)  Almost 15,000 bank branch offices across the United States closed between 2010 and 2020, according to data from the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation. Given the rise of digital banking and surge in fintech services over that same period it would be reasonable to suppose that the digital revolution has been a primary driver behind the restructuring of the banking industry. Nevertheless, FDIC data shows that digital banking is likely more of a means of adaptation to hyper evolution in the regulatory environment rather than a driver of the transformation of the banking sector. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Box Office Revenues Point to Long Road to Recovery for Services Sector //pt.knoema.com/dfevsj/us-box-office-revenues-point-to-long-road-to-recovery-for-services-sector 2020-12-22T06:54:44Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Box Office Revenues Point to Long Road to Recovery for Services Sector

US domestic box office revenues—a new so-called alternative leading indicator of economic health—predicted the oncoming US economic recession about one month before traditional composite leading indicators pointed to a downturn. Now as the US economy gradually reopens, box office revenue will be tracked as a leading indicator of recovery in the US services sector, which accounts for 80% of all US jobs.As of late April, a handful of US movie theaters started screening films again for the public after local and state officials eased state-at-home orders. In the 5-week period starting May 1, 2020, weekly domestic box office revenues more than tripled but still remained less than 1% of revenues for the same 5-week period of 2019.Box office revenue trends illustrate a slow recovery of the services sector that will almost certainly lag recovery of the real sector. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Global Recession Is Coming. But Not In 2020. //pt.knoema.com/pekgnud/global-recession-is-coming-but-not-in-2020 2020-12-21T08:54:54Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Global Recession Is Coming. But Not In 2020.

While we are not in the business of making predictions or calls on the economy, we have some data in our repository that currently contradicts what many of the pundits in the media are saying about a global recession. You be the judge!   Below we outline in data five reasons why a global economic recession is not an absolute for 2020. We focus largely on China and the United States because recession in either of these two countries would very likely spur a global economic crisis. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Real Estate Market //pt.knoema.com/usfhrjg/us-real-estate-market 2020-12-19T12:36:29Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Real Estate Market

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
PolitiFact | 2020 US Election Fact Checker //pt.knoema.com/itrzswf/politifact-2020-us-election-fact-checker 2020-12-18T20:37:14Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
PolitiFact | 2020 US Election Fact Checker

(27 July 2020) Fact checking is a tricky business. Which claims should be selected for review? Do the reviewers have expert knowledge to validate the claims? How does the reader/viewer interpret the statement? Which data are used to validate the claim? And, yet, here we are, in the era of "alternative facts" and with a level of data democratization that means even a casual blogger with no research budget has access to the information resources previously locked in expensive news databases.   While fact checking presidential candidates reached a new level in the 2016 US presidential campaign when Trump outscored Hillary Clinton in the Washington Post's Pinocchios ranking, you can actually thank US President Ronald Regan and his "killer trees" for elevating interest in factchecking US presidents. Reagan attracted widespread ridicule for his claim that trees cause four times more pollution than automobiles.    With another US presidential election season upon us, we took a look for fresh data fact checking the Republican incumbent (President Trump) and the presumptive Democratic candidate (former US Vice President Joe Biden). According to Politifact, President Trump is not fairing well if accuracy is what's valued, suggesting it was maybe not a one off Pinocchio victory for the president.  The share of Trump's rated statements that include at least some truth is less than 30%;50% were false. Turning to Biden, of his rated statements, at least some truth could be found in 60%; 17% were false.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Intoxicants usage among US students by grade, sex and race //pt.knoema.com/dmufshg/intoxicants-usage-among-us-students-by-grade-sex-and-race 2020-12-17T22:34:34Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Intoxicants usage among US students by grade, sex and race

Drug use among American students is a persistent and serious problem in modern US society. The development of telecommunication services has seriously simplified the process of accessing drugs not only for adults, but even for children, and contributed to a shift in the use patterns of 12th, 10th and 8th graders who regularly use intoxicants.  According to the survey conducted by US National Center for Health Statistics, alcohol remains the most "popular" intoxicant among observed groups. The use of alcohol by the survey group, along with cigarettes, cocaine, and (for the most part) ecstasy, steeply decreased between the 1998 and 2013 surveys. In contrast, marijuana use among all age groups surveyed increased between 2008 and 2013 and, for 12th and 10th-grade respondents, nearly reached the record use levels reported in 1998. Notably, absent from the survey is a group of intoxicants extensively covered in US news media: prescription medications. Perhaps we'll see this apparent modern intoxicant of choice added to future surveys.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States Short Term Economic Profile: Real Sector //pt.knoema.com/aqzlsce/united-states-short-term-economic-profile-real-sector 2020-12-17T21:49:51Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States Short Term Economic Profile: Real Sector

United States | Japan | European Union | Euro Area | Germany | Italy | France | United Kingdom | Australia | Argentina | Canada | Indonesia | Mexico | Saudi Arabia | Korea | Turkey | Brazil | Russia | South Africa | China | India  Real Sector | Financial Sector | Foreign Sector | Prices and Unemployment GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Building Permits, Leading Index, Median Price for New Houses

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Weekly Excess Mortality Figures //pt.knoema.com/ikmqvgd/united-states-weekly-excess-mortality-figures 2020-12-11T10:43:51Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Weekly Excess Mortality Figures

(18 June 2020) Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Coronavirus-Related Search Queries Waning //pt.knoema.com/ufpjpfc/united-states-coronavirus-related-search-queries-waning 2020-12-11T10:18:13Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Coronavirus-Related Search Queries Waning

While researchers are working toward an answer to COVID-19, it seems that the average person has had enough on the topic. The declining breadth of search queries* people use to find COVID-related information on Bing points to waning interest, at least in the United States. During the week of March 16, 306,000 unique queries (explicit and implicit) related to Coronavirus or COVID-19 were recorded. By the end of April, that figure dropped to only around 36,000. Additional interesting insights from Bing searches:More general 'coronavirus' searches were replaced by 'coronavirus update' as the pandemic surged in the United States. Once the virus peaked, 'coronavirus' returned as the top search.Several queries stand out for their limited one-to-two day popularity: 'coronavirus 3d protein map', 'hilary heath dies coronavirus', 'coronavirus stimulus check deposits', 'china new coronavirus cases', 'kim jonj un coronavirus'. It's the persistent daily queries that we suspect reveal more about what people really care about: 'coronavirus symptoms', 'coronavirus map', and 'johns hopkins coronavirus dashboard'.The volume of unique searches well predated the peak of the US: people were anxious and looking for information even if the headlines from the US Government were that there was nothing to worry about. *The database includes only searches that were issued many times by multiple users from a desktop computer.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: COVID-19 Deaths Surpasses Total Lives Lost in Post World War II Conflicts //pt.knoema.com/oaygaf/united-states-covid-19-deaths-surpasses-total-lives-lost-in-post-world-war-ii-conflicts 2020-12-11T08:46:19Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Deaths Surpasses Total Lives Lost in Post World War II Conflicts

(Published - May 16, 2020. Data updated - December 11, 2020.) Early in the COVID-19 days, we took a look at US COVID-19 compared to the seasonal flu, but what hadn't yet come to be was the reality of the death toll from this pandemic in the context of other major losses of life, specifically war. Maybe you think it's worse than this, maybe this tells you with what data we have so far on reported COVID-19 deaths, the numbers are greater than you imagined. In either case, we hope this offers you a fresh perspective on what we know to date about the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic as measured by individual lives in the United States.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Dollar and Chinese Yuan Gain as US-China Trade Tensions Ease //pt.knoema.com/snoxqlb/us-dollar-and-chinese-yuan-gain-as-us-china-trade-tensions-ease 2020-12-10T03:21:19Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Dollar and Chinese Yuan Gain as US-China Trade Tensions Ease

(2 July 2019) The renewed engagement on trade between the China and the United States, the world’s largest economies, sparked positive reactions from the financial markets as most analysts were not expecting positive trade news. The US dollar, which had been depreciating based on rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, strengthened on the heals of the trade talks in which US President Donald Trump agreed to postpone new tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports valued at $300 billion and offered to ease restrictions on tech company Huawei. The appreciation in the US dollar came as investors started selling safe heaven currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss franc. The US dollar appreciated 0.3% against the yen and 0.8% against the franc.The US manufacturing PMI also pushed the dollar up as the announced level (51.7) was higher than market expectations in June 2019.China’s offshore yuan, permitted to move within a range of +/- two percent from the daily midpoint set by the Central Bank, rose more than 0.4 percent to as high as 6.8165 yuan per dollar before easing back to 6.8476 yuan per dollar after disappointing factory activity data. With no official deadlines announced for actions to resolve the ongoing trade conflict, market sentiment is open to the elevated volatility.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Critical Materials: Present Danger for US Manufacturing //pt.knoema.com/wzbxqpe/critical-materials-present-danger-for-us-manufacturing 2020-12-10T03:19:55Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Critical Materials: Present Danger for US Manufacturing

Source: Critical Materials: Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Coronavirus Undercutting US-China Trade Deal Targets //pt.knoema.com/kmfgls/coronavirus-undercutting-us-china-trade-deal-targets 2020-12-03T16:21:20Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Undercutting US-China Trade Deal Targets

(Updated: 3 December 2020; Published: 19 June 2020) According to Phase One of the Economic and Trade Agreement between China and the United States, China committed to purchase no less than an additional $63.9 billion of covered goods from the United States by the end of 2020 relative to 2017 baselines. Depending on the baseline data used, China's purchases range from $142.7 billion (if US export data is used) to $172.7 billion (if Chinese import data is used). Based on these estimates, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) calculated monthly targets for China's imports from the United States.According to PIIE, for the period January-September 2020, Chinese imports from the United States were about $60 billion less than the purchase target, roughly a 45 percent deviation from the target.The largest deviation from target was from trade of energy goods. In the first nine months of 2020 China imported 3 times less from the United States than the target value.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Weapons Trending in 2020 //pt.knoema.com/amilutf/united-states-weapons-trending-in-2020 2020-12-02T17:49:17Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Weapons Trending in 2020

We can all likely agree that the COVID-19 pandemic has heavily contributed to the acute uncertainty gripping the world in 2020. In the United States, a variety of other events took place in 2020 to further elevate the average American's concern about the future, divisive presidential elections and multiple months of historic, nationwide protests among them. The data suggests that for some Americans this uncertainty may have translated into a very specific action: application for the purchase of a firearm ... times 4 million.  According to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Investing.com:About 20 percent of all 2020 firearm applications were filed in the state of Illinois.More than 50 percent of applications were for a handgun.  Assuming even half of all applications led to the sale of a weapon, then since the beginning of 2020 more than 15 million firearms have been sold in the United States, or about 1 weapon per 20 US citizens.Riding this wave are US firearm manufacturers and retailers, whose share prices of have shown significant growth and even outpaced the S&P earlier in the year. Big 5 Sporting Goods (Ticker: BGFV) showed the strongest growth to date among our sample (see below) and cited cost savings during pandemic with reduced store operation expenses and labor costs as well as strong sales across a broad array of categories.   Notes: NICS statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS and not the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale. The indicator “multiple” denotes a background check for which more than one type of firearm is associated to a single background check. Definitions: Handgun — Any firearm which has a short stock and is designed to be held and fired by the use of a single hand; Long Gun — A weapon designed or redesigned, made or remade, and intended to be fired from the shoulder; Other — Frames, receivers, and other firearms that are neither handguns nor long guns.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
RE Analytics | Success of CPRI Brand Acquisition Strategy //pt.knoema.com/ttypfee/re-analytics-success-of-cpri-brand-acquisition-strategy 2020-11-20T12:29:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
RE Analytics | Success of CPRI Brand Acquisition Strategy

Capri Holding (NYSE CPRI) strategy to acquire Versace has proved successful: The brand has grown a lot in importance in the past two years, establishing Versace today as the strongest brand within the Capri Holding portfolio. Versace surpassed Michael Kors in recent months within the luxury fashion retail segment.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Lack of Remote Work Options Elevates COVID-19 Risk Profiles //pt.knoema.com/bgnjfkc/united-states-lack-of-remote-work-options-elevates-covid-19-risk-profiles 2020-11-17T08:56:01Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Lack of Remote Work Options Elevates COVID-19 Risk Profiles

(16 November 2020) Changing jobs can be a challenge in normal times and even more challenging during COVID-19, which means that labor markets are not as fluid as we might wish. Personal choices aside, thousands of workers have potentially elevated risks of contracting COVID-19 since they do not have the luxury to choose to work from home, particularly in industries with lower wages and formal educational requirements. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: 70%+ of employees in the financial and professional and business services industries reported that they could telework. The average salary in these industries exceeded $110,000 per year in 2019. 36% of employees in manufacturing and 27% of wholesale and retail trade workers could work from home. The average annual wage in these two industries was $70,000 and $40,000, respectively.10.7% of workers with less than a high school diploma can work from home, a large difference from the 67.5% with a bachelor's degree and higher who reported that they had the option to work from home.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: How COVID-19 Could Worsen the Creativity Crisis //pt.knoema.com/bzsxnt/united-states-how-covid-19-could-worsen-the-creativity-crisis 2020-11-13T14:54:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: How COVID-19 Could Worsen the Creativity Crisis

(12 November 2020) Almost 10 years ago Dr. Kyung Hee Kim, professor at The College of William & Mary, published research that examined creativity trends in the United States. The results were discouraging: "Since 1990 creative thinking has been declining among Americans of all ages, especially in kindergarten through third grade." Among the reasons Dr. Kim cited was the growth in interaction via technologies in a more impersonal way, lacking in person-to-person, verbal, and other interpersonal communicative signals.Around the same time, additional research came out showing that time once dedicated to social interactions had been eroded by electronic media use. From 1987 to 2007, daily time spent on social interactions decreased from six to just two hours per day, while electronic media usage time doubled from four to eight hours per day, according research published by Dr. Aric Sigman. No doubt, today this difference has increased even more, since children in their earliest years learn to slide their little fingers across gadget screens. You might wonder why we are featuring 10-year old data at Knoema. The answer: The COVID-19 pandemic. We're living through a period of dramatic decline in the intensity of social person-to-person interactions. And while employers to universities may have turned to remote work and learning as a lifeline, no one is sure what will be the new norm for remote engagement. And, we wonder, will a strong shift to remote format be the creative thing to do? Can the interactive nature of Zoom chat, Facetime calls, and Skype conferencing counteract the creativity declines described a decade ago? Can we even turn back if that answer is no? Pre-COVID data published by Common Sense Media back in 2017 showed that the percentage of 0-8 year old kids that had access to their own tablet had already increased from almost zero in 2011 to 42 percent in 2017. During that same period, daily time spent each day on mobile devices increased almost ten fold - from 5 to 48 minutes per day on average. Note: description of Torrance Test Of Creative Thinking can be fond here 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US 3Q GDP Growth of 33%: Sign of a Strong Economy? //pt.knoema.com/jyfrmyc/us-3q-gdp-growth-of-33-sign-of-a-strong-economy 2020-11-13T08:51:37Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US 3Q GDP Growth of 33%: Sign of a Strong Economy?

(10 November 2020) In late October as the United States elections neared, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its estimate for US 3Q real GDP growth - a jaw dropping 33.1 percent. While tempting to look on in awe at the scale and speed of the economic recovery, it may not represent what you think.This figure—33%—is an annual growth rate for the entire rolling year through Q3 2021 and assumes that the quarter-over quarter growth will remain the same for the next three quarters. A glance at the first chart below shows the scale of this fluctuation from -31.4% in Q2 to 33.1% in Q3 in the context of all reported figures since 1947.A potentially more intuitive figure and certainly one that is used more commonly outside the United States is year-over-year percent change. On a year-over-year basis US GDP decreased 2.9 percent in Q3 2020, which means that for the July-September 2020 period US GDP was 2.9 percent lower than in the same period of 2019. In other words, US economic output is lower now than it was in the pre-COVID period. You may be wondering, 'Okay, well, how strong is the US economic recovery?" Relatively speaking, if we look at the world's two largest economies—China and the United States—the US is lagging. Whereas China's economy took a single quarter to return to positive year-over-year growth after the COVID shock, the US is looking at two or even three quarters to recover, assuming the fresh spike in COVID cases does not further derail recovery. In Q3 2020, US GDP was still 3.5 percent lower than in Q4 2019; in contrast, in Q3 2020, China's GDP exceeded the Q4 2019 level by 3.3 percent. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Budget: Deficits and Surpluses //pt.knoema.com/vkhtrbd/us-budget-deficits-and-surpluses 2020-11-11T06:44:07Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Budget: Deficits and Surpluses

Revenues by Major Source | Outlays by Type of Spending | Budget Deficits and Surpluses | Social Insurance Tax Revenues| Federal Debt Held by the Public

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Cognovi Labs | Shifting to Made in the USA //pt.knoema.com/nyysyq/cognovi-labs-shifting-to-made-in-the-usa 2020-11-03T12:04:58Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Cognovi Labs | Shifting to Made in the USA

The tendency to buy domestic products has always been observed in consumer behavior. In a pandemic situation, emotions are elevated and carry through to consumer behavior. According to Cognovi Labs, Americans are becoming more motivated to buy goods made in America. One of the reasons for this change in motivation is the desire of Americans to avoid dependence on other countries for vital goods. At the beginning of March, consumers were panic buying face masks and exhausted supplies. Cognovi EMOTION AI detected a dramatic increase in fear when essential goods, including face masks, were nowhere to be found.This shift in motivation can also be explained, for example, by the desire to help your economy in the form of buying domestic products. Sometimes people of a particular country feel responsibility to support "home" businesses to survive through crisis, understanding that their actions drive the whole economy of the country. Whatever the motivator, today we want to highlight the difference between alternative data and traditional in understanding consumer behavior. According to alternative data, US consumer buying behavior will change soon as their motivation to buy products made in America eases. However, traditional data will not show this change as early as it will be apparent in the alternative data, underscoring the value of having multiple streams of data during a crisis. 

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Will Strong US Consumer Demand in September Yield to Cool Winter Prospects? //pt.knoema.com/wehmcwg/will-strong-us-consumer-demand-in-september-yield-to-cool-winter-prospects 2020-10-30T12:08:45Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Will Strong US Consumer Demand in September Yield to Cool Winter Prospects?

(26 October 2020) Consumer demand has bounced back quickly from the depths of the corona-crisis to reach $548.3 billion in September, a substantial 5.4 percent over September 2019, according to US Census Bureau. When you consider that consumer demand accounts for nearly 70 percent of US GDP, you can understand why this would breath fresh optimism into broad recovery of economic activity. In September, sales of many retail businesses exceeded pre-crisis levels. Only gasoline, food services, clothing, and electronic stores remain well below January 2020 levels. Gasoline stores ended the month with sales 18.2 percent below January levels in part because of depressed fossil fuel prices but also with lesser foot traffic through attached convenience stores. Food services and clothing sales have suffered mainly due to anti-covid restrictions and remains hindered by COVID-19 surges. COVID-19 gave a boost to online spending and outdoor activities vendors. During the first nine months of 2020, sales of non-store retailers, building materials and gardening equipment dealers, and food stores increased from 12 to 20 percent year over year. Despite the encouraging September figures, further expansion of US consumer demand is simply uncertain. Total new daily case numbers nationwide have hit new daily records and stimulus funds have expired, pushing consumers to reconsider spending decisions and activities outside the home even though recent research showed that consumers have so far spent less than 10 percent of total stimulus benefits. A survey on winter holiday spending plans from Prosper Insights and Analytics also points to sluggish winter holiday spending compared to last year.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Election 2020 Forecast: Anyone's Guess? //pt.knoema.com/kksisib/us-election-2020-forecast-anyone-s-guess 2020-10-29T06:37:04Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Election 2020 Forecast: Anyone's Guess?

(29 October 2020) If you've been following the latest forecasts from The Economist and Columbia University, Donald Trump has a small probability (3.5%) of winning the electoral college to be re-elected in November. The model is designed to predict the chances of winning the electoral-college on election day, as Trump did in 2016 even though he failed to win the popular vote, and currently gives Joe Biden an 96 percent probability of defeating Donald Trump and better than 19 in 20 chances of winning the popular vote.    Reliability of polling data doesn't stop the polling and it's fascinating to follow along, particular with some players you may be less familiar with showing better predictive results. Look at the last election. Even in late October while early voters were casting their votes, the 2016 election polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 percentage points.Based on the latest poll averages in the current election from RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and The Economist, Joe Biden currently has a 1 to 11 percentage point advantage over Donald Trump. Political betting markets, such as PredictIt and Iowa Electronic Markets, also suggest a substantial advantage of Biden.The stock market, in turn, predicts that Donald Trump is poised for re-election.At the same time, RIWI—a company that offers predictive analytics and trend tracking—reveals that neither party has established a clear leadership position so far. 

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Majority of US Federal COVID-19 Funds Were Employment Centric //pt.knoema.com/tldfedf/majority-of-us-federal-covid-19-funds-were-employment-centric 2020-10-22T02:51:04Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Majority of US Federal COVID-19 Funds Were Employment Centric

(21 October 2020) The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the US economy, as with many other economies globally. Immediately after the outbreak began, the US unemployment rate increased quickly to 15 percent in April 2020 and did not peak until May (17%). To respond to this and other economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, US federal authorities approved a variety of financial assistance programs for individuals and businesses. Below we provide quick access to the key figures summarizing funding levels for each program—spoiler alert wage protection and replacement programs represented a majority of funding—distribution among the US states, and snapshots of funding per state relative to COVID-19 case volume.   In net, the federal government allocated $1.7 trillion as of October 14, 2020, roughly 50 percent of which was directed toward employees, including paycheck protection program, unemployment compensation, and unemployment assistance. State level data shows a clear relationship between federal assistance and COVID-19 case volume, which is unsurprising given the employment (i.e. economic) support focus of the majority of the funds. California received the highest amount of funding—just over $242 billion—followed by New York and Texas at $139 and $129 billion, respectively. States with the fewest relative number of COVID-19 cases per million received the same funding per capita, on average. The smallest amount of funding went to Vermont and Wyoming, which had the lowest numbers of coronavirus cases in the country as of October 20, 2020. 

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Elections 2020: Republicans Lost Ground This Spring //pt.knoema.com/rairlze/us-elections-2020-republicans-lost-ground-this-spring 2020-10-16T17:51:32Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Elections 2020: Republicans Lost Ground This Spring

(Published: 21 July 2020. Data Updated: 28 July 2020)  There are likely few elected officials who will swear by a poll, many might even say that if they gave up when the polls said they'd lose, they wouldn't be where they are today (in office). By bringing together insights from polling data and historical voting by district, the Electoral College Ratings published by the Cook Political Report, a self-described independent online newsletter that analyzes US elections and campaigns, posits that between March 9 and July 14 the balance has shifted in favor of Democrats. While there are months yet to go in the race, here are highlights from the July Electoral College Ratings report:Before the coronavirus pandemic, the Republican Party had 204 electoral votes in what the Cook Political Report terms 'Solid', 'Likely,' and 'Lean' Republican categories and would need 67 electoral votes (66%) from the 'Toss Up' states. By mid-July, Republicans had 187 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely, and Lean categories and would need all 72 electoral votes from the Toss Up states plus 11 votes from the 'Lean Democrat' states.Within the 186 electoral votes is a notable 21-vote decrease in 'Solid Republican' states as four states—South Carolina, Utah, Alaska and Montana—moved to 'Likely Republican'; Iowa and Ohio also moved from Likely to Lean Republican.The Democratic Party increased by 47 votes in July to 279 electoral votes as three states—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—along with Nebraska's 2nd congressional district switched from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. An absolute majority of at least 270 electoral votes is required to win the presidential election.Toss-Up states as of July were reduced to four—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina—in addition to Main's 2nd congressional district, a total 72 electoral votes.   _______________   Party affiliation definitions from the Cook Political Report: Safe/Solid Democratic // Safe/Solid Republican: One party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive. Likely Democratic // Likely Republican: One party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible. Lean Democratic // Lean Republican: One party has a small edge, but the race is competitive. Toss-up: Neither party has an edge.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US States: Economic Performance Indicators //pt.knoema.com/mjfnfvf/us-states-economic-performance-indicators 2020-10-16T13:15:31Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US States: Economic Performance Indicators

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Unemployment in the United States. Regional Breakdown //pt.knoema.com/vasbrhf/unemployment-in-the-united-states-regional-breakdown 2020-10-13T04:05:59Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Unemployment in the United States. Regional Breakdown

More than four years in a row (2009-2012) unemployment in the US exceeded 8%. After the unemployment rate reached its peak of 10% in October 2009, it decreased by 5 percentage points so far and stayed at 5% in March 2016. Unemployment in California, which accounts for about 13% of total US GDP, is 5.5%.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Dollar Exchange Rate Index //pt.knoema.com/smatpj/us-dollar-exchange-rate-index 2020-10-09T16:53:33Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Dollar Exchange Rate Index

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Alaska Profile //pt.knoema.com/fzhhkw/alaska-profile 2020-10-09T03:52:41Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Alaska Profile

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
COVID-19: A Change Agent for Minimum Wage in Election Year? //pt.knoema.com/zcxdsff/covid-19-a-change-agent-for-minimum-wage-in-election-year 2020-10-06T12:23:17Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
COVID-19: A Change Agent for Minimum Wage in Election Year?

(17 July 2020)  COVID-19 has clarified for many the dependence of our daily lives on the hourly wage earners within our societies, a fact that speaks to the campaign platform of former US vice president and presidential candidate Joe Biden. A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour, according to Biden, is critical for the basic protection and standard of living of millions of US workers who delivery food, provide care to the young and the elderly, support agricultural, hotel, entertainment, and so may other industries. The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25—about $15,000 a year for a full-time worker, which could qualify the worker for government assistance programs—however, as shown below, the minimum wage in the United States varies by state.The US minimum wage was implemented in 1938 as the US was trying to pull itself out of the Great Depression. The question now is how viable is a wage hike to pull the US out of the COVID-19 economic contraction when so many retailers, hotel and restaurant, and other industries are careening toward bankruptcy under the burden of the coronavirus outbreak? Back in July 2019, the US Congressional Budget Office examined the potential impact on jobs if $10, $12, and $15 minimum wage options were to be implemented. Among its findings, the CBO stated that under a $15 minimum wage, 27.3 million workers would see a likely boost in wages while upwards of 3.7 million workers could become jobless as a result of the change.

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
California Fires Gaining in Intensity Since 2010 //pt.knoema.com/brpdrvg/california-fires-gaining-in-intensity-since-2010 2020-10-02T13:54:42Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
California Fires Gaining in Intensity Since 2010

(30 September 2020) The eerie orange skies that have covered California in recent weeks, including major cities such as San Francisco, are contributing to what is an alarming increase in the intensity of wildfires in the state since 2010. Wildfires have destroyed more than 3 million acres of California forests so far in 2020, according to California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), already 14 times the burn in 2019 and well ahead of the typical autumn wildfire season. While the intensity of the fires varies year-by-year, analysis of the rolling average number of fires and the total affected area reveals that the power of California wildfires has been growing since 2010.By the end of September 2020, California wildfires had caused 28 deaths and damaged or destroyed almost 8,000 structures. Despite the record land area wildfires have consumed in 2020, the economic damage and human loses so far are much smaller compared to 2017 and 2018, according to CAL FIRE. In the 2017 and 2018 fire seasons, wildfires were the main reason for short-term particle pollution spikes, especially in California, which merits heightened levels of attention given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that compromises the lung function of most who contract the virus.  According to the American Lung Association, 11 of the 25 most polluted US cities by short-term particle pollution are in California. And, as of 30 September, California was still reporting new daily case rates in the thousands.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Nightmare Looming for US Oil & Gas Players: Peaked Oil Production and a New Green Deal //pt.knoema.com/qlacpne/nightmare-looming-for-us-oil-gas-players-peaked-oil-production-and-a-new-green-deal 2020-10-02T08:24:15Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Nightmare Looming for US Oil & Gas Players: Peaked Oil Production and a New Green Deal

(1 October 2020)  US oil and gas players are deeply pessimistic about the future health of the industry, echoing bp's recent report asserting oil demand growth has peaked and OPEC's downward revision of 2020 oil demand. According to the results of a survey of oil and gas producers conducted between 9 and 17 September by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the majority of the executives (66%) believe US oil production has peaked. The current WTI price of about $40 barrel is unsustainable for today's industry, according to respondents. To "kick things" and boost the active rig count substantially, 54 percent of executives said prices have to reach $51–$55 per barrel; 46 percent bumped that figure to above $55 per barrel. The majority of respondents said that oil prices above $46 per barrel are needed for a substantial increase in completions of drilled but uncompleted wells. Again, if industry insiders are correct, oil prices at $40 per barrel are simply too low to sustain replacement drilling. No matter your politics, if your livelihood is tied for now to the oil and gas industry, the 2020 US presidential election forecasts only add fuel to the fire. In addition to financial difficulties (low cash flow and high debt) caused by depressed oil demand and low prices, if presidential candidate Joe Biden wins, US oil and gas producers may face a new constraint - a New Green Deal, as some call it. In the words of one of the survey respondents, "A Biden administration would wreak havoc on our industry—way worse than OPEC. It would put us out of business. We could not survive a Green New Deal."  An interesting perspective but maybe shortsighted given the history of innovation and revival the industry is so well known for in addition to the billions of dollars of investment already being directed into renewables by ... the oil and gas industry.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US: Fed Cuts Interest Rates and CPI Ticked down marginally in August //pt.knoema.com/jindggd/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-and-cpi-ticked-down-marginally-in-august 2020-10-01T15:06:46Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US: Fed Cuts Interest Rates and CPI Ticked down marginally in August

US consumer price inflation rose 0.1 percent M-o-M in August in line with market expectations, however, lower than 0.3 percent M-o-M increase in July 2019. With falling energy costs, particularly gasoline for third month out of the past four months, overall inflation softened to 1.7 percent Y-o-Y in August from 1.8 percent Y-o-Y in July 2019.Core inflation that excludes volatile items such as food and energy grew 0.3 percent M-o-M and 2.4 percent Y-o-Y in August compared to 2.2 percent in July. The core inflation ticked up due to a sharp price jump in medical care services.Food inflation rose 1.7 percent Y-o-Y in August as compared to 1.8 percent in July 2019, whereas energy prices declined 4.4 percent Y-o-Y in August compared to a contraction of 2 percent in July 2019.The import tariff on China’s exports to the US is likely to push the inflation up in the coming months. Fed makes second rate cut in a row: Despite the favorable U.S. economic outlook with strong labour market-low unemployment and wage growth, FOMC cut the rate by 25bps due to concerns over weak global growth and unresolved trade tensions. The benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate stands in the range of 1.75 to 2 percent. The FOMC also cut its interest rate paid on overnight excess reserves by 30 bps to 1.80 percent to foster trading in the federal funds market.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Justice Ginsburg's Fight for Gender Quality Yet Unfulfilled //pt.knoema.com/kibtwlb/justice-ginsburg-s-fight-for-gender-quality-yet-unfulfilled 2020-09-24T15:28:23Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Justice Ginsburg's Fight for Gender Quality Yet Unfulfilled

(18 September 2020) Today US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, known as a champion of gender equality, passed away, sending thousands to the US Supreme Court grounds to mourn her loss. The timing of her passing is noteworthy as it overlapped with the internationally recognized 'Equal Pay Day', a concept near and dear to the cause that Justice Ginsburg supported throughout her life despite wavering profess since the days of the US Equal Pay Act of 1963.Caregiving and other unpaid obligations, differences in occupation, management level, and years of work experience are the major contributors to the gender pay gap, according to a 2016 study from Glassdoor. Accounting for these factors almost eliminates the pay gap. By 'gap' we are referring to the fact that full-time female workers in the United States are typically paid 82 cents for every dollar paid to their male counterparts, which translates into $10,194 less per year.To eliminate the gap and achieve the same lifetime earnings as a white male who retires at age 67, a woman would need to work an average of 10 additional years. Black, Native American, and Latina women would need to work until 94-103 years of age to earn the same as white men, a nearly impossible feat given that the average life expectancy at birth for US women barely exceeds 80.Only if by stroke of 'luck' you are an Asian woman working in Delaware you might earn as much as the average white male counterpart - around $58,000 per year. Assumptions: Workers start their careers at age 20; normal retirement age is 67; distribution of annual earnings around median is estimated based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Election Wildcard: Education //pt.knoema.com/hntnscc/us-election-wildcard-education 2020-09-17T11:55:56Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Election Wildcard: Education

(4 September 2020) Whether you're talking about trade school, associates, or other higher education degrees, the more educated the members of a society, the better. And, yet, President Trump could have cause to not only disagree but to be concerned. The failure of pollsters to adequately account for educational attainment leading into the 2016 US presidential election contributed to a bias in favor of a win for the Democratic Party.  2016 US election exit polls showed that 34 percent of voters were whites without a college degree, however, according to a post-election study of voter registration files from Pew Research, this group accounted for 45 percent of all US voters.US Census data shows that between the 2004 and 2016 elections the share of US voters with a college degree increased from 34 percent to 40 percent. If this trend continues, voters with a college degree will account for 43 percent of all US voters this November.And, in potential swing states, the share of voters with a college degree will increase from 31-48 percent in 2016 to 33-52 percent in 2020. That means, on average, voters with a college degree will account for more than 41 percent of voters in potential swing states compared to 38 percent in 2016. Given that President Trump's electorate base from an education lens is strongest among Americans with a high school degree or less, the question is who turns out to vote. The Economist / YouGov poll featured below confirms the strong, persistent polarization of US voters by the level of educational attainment. Trump has the advantage over Biden only among voters with high school education attainment or less. Will they be mobilized to get to the polls (or mail in their ballots) come November?

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
YouGov | White Elderly Men: The Last Stronghold for Trump //pt.knoema.com/ipwacu/yougov-white-elderly-men-the-last-stronghold-for-trump 2020-09-04T10:24:50Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
YouGov | White Elderly Men: The Last Stronghold for Trump

(4 August 2020) We've all seen the latest polls, with Biden sustaining a strong 8-10 percent lead over Trump. Now, the latest Economist/YouGov poll magnifies Biden's cross-cutting lead, showing a double-digit advantage among women, ... young voters (under 35), ... college graduates, ... non-white Americans... Who remains? White men over the age of 65 now represent Trump's last remaining stronghold, but even within this demographic, the margin is less than 10 percent and facing challenges.   With the US economy struggling, Trump may stand to lose further ground if future stimulus packages and policy changes fail to deliver the needed support to voters within his base. Although the margin is slim, voters with a high school degree or less who have faired poorly during COVID, according to unemployment statistics, would likely benefit from any future stimulus. US unemployment data also hints that the 65+ white males have to date suffered the least during the pandemic, but White House policies under consideration could put new financial stress on this demographic through cuts to social security and medicare.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Consumer Confidence Rebound Spotlights Global Discrepancies //pt.knoema.com/dvltsrd/us-consumer-confidence-rebound-spotlights-global-discrepancies 2020-09-03T21:47:31Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Consumer Confidence Rebound Spotlights Global Discrepancies

(13 March 2019) Consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy, the United States, rebounded in February after a sharp drop in January, according to the University of Michigan. January’s decrease was the single sharpest drop in consumer sentiment since 2012 and was at least partially spurred by the partial US government shutdown. In February, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will hold off on further interest rate hikes and trade relations with China continued to thaw, bolstering the rebound.The Fed monitors the Consumer Confidence Index to help guide policy adjustments. Currently, given low inflation expectations—a component of the consumer confidence survey—it appears another interest rate is not justified.Consumers' expectations related to increasing unemployment, however, may fuel debate about the relationship between inflation and unemployment and any response by the Fed. While still historically high, US consumer confidence is continuing to decline from its 15-year high in March 2018, a trend mirrored among several advanced economies. Many European economies in particular, including the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, and the Netherlands, are facing declining consumer confidence on a backdrop of heightened economic uncertainty. In contrast, some developing countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, and China, report improving in the consumer confidence levels.  

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Tracking US Stay-At-Home Protests Against COVID-19 Lockdown //pt.knoema.com/ulilqyc/tracking-us-stay-at-home-protests-against-covid-19-lockdown 2020-09-03T12:49:19Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Tracking US Stay-At-Home Protests Against COVID-19 Lockdown

(Published - April 20, 2020. Data updated - May 26, 2020) A growing number of social protests have swept the United States this month in opposition to measures imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Protesters seek policy changes to restart state economies and are providing fresh political opportunities that President Trump has reframed via Twitter as an imperative to 'LIBERATE' US states from COVID-19 restrictions.In the week spanning 13-19 April 2020, we estimate that approximately 9,000 people left their homes to participate in protests and demand state governors relax coronavirus containment measures.So far protests have been mostly peaceful—participants bearing signs and banners, locals driving by their state capital buildings and honking their car horns in support of the protests, etc.—and police have seldom needed to intervene. There are some exceptions that have drawn concern, such as protesters who were observed demonstrating with the use of anti-Semitic symbolism in Columbus, Ohio, and disruptions that led to several arrests in Raleigh, North Carolina.Facebook groups are a popular channel to organize and promote the COVID-response rallies and are boosted by US conservative social media and talk radio.A recent poll from Yahoo News and YouGov shows that most Americans (over 70% of the adult population) reject anti-lockdown protests. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US economy hard. Twenty million Americans have lost their jobs since mid-March, half of local businesses are closed, and almost 60-65% of hourly workers are our of work. Financial insecurity and continuing uncertainty about the duration of the restrictions are effective motivators to fuel the anti-COVID-19 lockdown movement.The protests have already successfully mounted enough pressure in Florida to have some beaches resume limited public access, and Texas is aggressively moving forward on plans to relax restrictions on business operations.At the same time, numerous health experts insist that any resumption of normal activities will be disastrous and lead to an overwhelming number of new infections. They are asking citizens to be patient and urging for restrictions to extend to mid-May and beyond. The growing COVID-19 protest movement and political plays around it clearly reveal the divide among and between various US federal and state authorities, with democratic governors particularly exposed. If the mainstream medical and scientific communities are correct, then mass public rejection of and non-compliance with a continued lockdown would exacerbate and prolong the pandemic. An escalation of the pandemic could corner the US federal government into taking extreme measures to contain the pandemic, measures that would run counter to an economic restart and inflame protests.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Guns vs. Butter: US Defense Spending Approaching WWII Levels //pt.knoema.com/cdldbtd/guns-vs-butter-us-defense-spending-approaching-wwii-levels 2020-08-20T10:02:15Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Guns vs. Butter: US Defense Spending Approaching WWII Levels

COVID economy or not, US defense expenditures are on the rise in 2020 and approaching inflation-adjusted levels equivalent to the WWII period. In 2020, US spending on defense will be equivalent to approximately 3.8 percent of GDP, which while an increase from 2018 is actually 0.1 percentage points less than the average over the last two decades and an arguably moderate economic burden, at least in pre-COVID times.US defense spending is also considerably greater than any other country in the world. According to SIPRI, in 2019, the United States spent $732 billion on national defense, which was more than the next 10 countries combined.  US defense spending demonstrates that the United States has strong potential to boost military spending even amid severe economic crisis. The interesting question is whether this trend is sustainable or portends a peak and decline to the potential detriment of the defense industry. This year the answer may hinge on a single figure - 3, as in November 3, 2020, the date of the US general election.For fiscal year 2020, the Trump Administration requested Congressional approval for a $750 billion national defense budget that prioritizes modernization to compete with China and Russia. Cyber security, space forces, and nuclear weapons were all top ranked priorities, a reflection of Trump's foreign policy approach and, potentially, still greater military spending if elected to a second term.Although Biden's military spending plans so far are not clear, political observers consider defense budget cuts feasible under a Biden administration. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: The COVID-19 New Cases Curve Peaked in Late July //pt.knoema.com/xxlkhpd/united-states-the-covid-19-new-cases-curve-peaked-in-late-july 2020-08-20T01:08:37Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
United States: The COVID-19 New Cases Curve Peaked in Late July

(31 July 2020)  Two weeks into Washington's new requirement that hospitals send daily reports about COVID-19 patients directly to the Department of Health and Human Services in Washington DC instead of the US Center for Diseases Control's National Healthcare Safety Network, we wanted to highlight how the US is faring in its battle to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.   The seven day moving average number of new COVID-19 cases has flattened since July 16/17, with a decreasing trend since July 25. We should see a flattening and decrease in deaths in the days to come as a result.  

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
US Elections 2020: Defining 'Swing States' //pt.knoema.com/ftjgixg/us-elections-2020-defining-swing-states 2020-08-11T08:51:29Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
US Elections 2020: Defining 'Swing States'

Swing States, also sometimes called 'Toss-Up states', are at the epicenter of many prediction models and the target of millions of polling dollars because of the unpredictability of the votes that these states can swing to transform a candidate into the next occupant of the Oval Office. But what makes a swing state a swing state? All it means is that the campaign is closely contested and either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate could reasonably win.    The data tells an interesting story about swing states, because no state was among the swing states in all four of the last presidential elections. Only three states—Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—were swing states in three of the four last elections. It should come as no surprise then that the predictive quality around swing states and outcome elections is so weak, as FiveThirtyEight's analysis shows.

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
US Prison Costs Grossly Exceed Public Education Spending //pt.knoema.com/odgnikf/us-prison-costs-grossly-exceed-public-education-spending 2020-08-07T11:49:40Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Prison Costs Grossly Exceed Public Education Spending

The decrease in the national crime rate in the US during the past two decades was insufficient to offset the cost to US taxpayers to manage prisons because of the simultaneous increase in the rate of incarceration during the period. Between 1991 and 2013, the national crime rate fell from 1,311 to 689 offenses per 100,000 people. In absolute terms, 8.5 million fewer crimes were committed in 2013 compared to 1991. While the crime rate decreased, the number of state inmates grew by 200 percent nationwide, reaching a total incarcerated population of 1.6 million in 2008. Another 723,131 inmates were confined in local jails for a total adult inmate population of 2.3 million, or roughly 1 in 100 adults in the United States. These trends in US criminal justice have come at a cost to American taxpayers. State corrections budgets have nearly quadrupled in the past two decades. Despite this alarming figure, official correction budgets account for only a portion of the financial obligations a state incurs when it sentences an individual to prison. The Vera Institute of Justice estimates that the total taxpayer cost of prisons, including additional indirect costs that fall outside correction budgets, was $39 billion in 2010. This is $5.4 billion more than official $33.5 billion total spending of state correction departments. These indirect costs vary widely, according to the Vera Institute, from 1 percent of the total cost of prisons in Arizona to 34 percent in Connecticut. The relative modern day cost of incarceration in the US relative to public expenditures on elementary-secondary education strongly supports social policy planning that puts education first. Assuming that the total number of people imprisoned in the United States was 1.2 million in 2010, the average per-inmate cost was $31,286 and ranged from $14,603 in Kentucky to $60,076 in New York. In contrast, the US government spent $602 billion on the nearly 50 million elementary-secondary students in public schools in the US in 2010, or about $12,800 per student, according to the US Census Bureau. This is more than two times less than was spent on average per inmate.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: COVID-19 a Direct Threat to Housing for Millions //pt.knoema.com/ycoixzf/united-states-covid-19-a-direct-threat-to-housing-for-millions 2020-08-03T22:00:18Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 a Direct Threat to Housing for Millions

(3 August 2020)  The coronacrisis may have not abated in the United States, but COVID-tied economic support measures are expiring, placing millions of households under increased risk of losing their homes. As of August 1, the US government stopped paying the extra $600 per week in unemployment that nearly 25 million Americans have received during COVID. In addition, on July 25, the Federal Eviction Moratorium that protected 18 million Americans with federally backed mortgages from eviction expired.According to the US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, over 47 percent of households (or, 14 million) that are renting homes are unable to pay rent*.Low income households earning less that $50,000 per year are at the highest risk of losing their homes, with 50 to 60 percent of low income households renting homes unable to pay rent.In four potential swing states—Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas—over 50 percent of rental households cannot pay rent. * Households unable to pay rent are represented by the following population groups from the Household Pulse Survey: no confidence to pay next month's rent; slight confidence and 50% share of population with moderate confidence.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Q2 2020 Marks the Single Worst Economic Quarter on Record //pt.knoema.com/oucibbc/united-states-q2-2020-marks-the-single-worst-economic-quarter-on-record 2020-08-03T19:39:06Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Q2 2020 Marks the Single Worst Economic Quarter on Record

(2 August 2020)  Last week the US economy experienced its deepest single-quarter decrease since the government began tracking this data in 1947. The 32.9% plunge in Q2 dwarfed the 5% decrease in Q1 2020 and the previous record single-quarter decrease of 8.4% in Q4 2008 during the global financial crisis.The contraction was widespread, emanating from reductions in consumer spending, exports, inventories, investment, and spending by state and local governments.Among the economy's loss leaders were consumer spending, the economy’s usual engine of growth, which contracted by 34.6%, and gross private investment, which contracted by 49%. Within private investment, residential spending contracted the most (38.7%) but is expected to rebound based on new record low mortgage rates.Government spending was a mixed bag. Federal spending was up 17%, as the government injected money into businesses, households and the labor market to bolster the economy. State and local government spending, however, was down by 5.6%. The economic outlook is as certain as is the trajectory of COVID, a stress point for the Trump Administration as the US closes in on the November 2020 general elections. Aiding recovery is the US Federal Reserves’ pledge to keep interest rates at or near zero, however, the path to recovery is still largely dependent on successful containment and economic strategies around COVID.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Economic Rebound Benefiting Biden //pt.knoema.com/yrurun/united-states-economic-rebound-benefiting-biden 2020-07-31T08:49:30Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Economic Rebound Benefiting Biden

(24 July 2020)  As has been extensively covered major media channels, US President Trump has strongly encouraged US state governors to lift anti-covid lockdowns and re-open their states as soon as possible to help the US economy. A growing economy, more jobs, and higher wages are not only positive for the individual US worker but could be strong incentives in favor of Trump's reelection.    Data shows, however, that even though restrictions have been lifted or relaxed and the economy has started to recover, Republicans have not been rewarded with a boost in the polls. Examining the relationship between political poll results and economic activity represented by mobility index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, we found that in seven of the eight swing states, as defined by FiveThirtyEight, rebounding economic activity correlates positively with a growth of the share of voters supporting Biden. In states where economic activity is decelerating, including Wisconsin, the opposite is true, and Trump's popularity is strengthening. 

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Exit From WHO Would Cut Nearly 25% of Funding //pt.knoema.com/kysymo/us-exit-from-who-would-cut-nearly-25-of-funding 2020-07-20T17:52:00Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Exit From WHO Would Cut Nearly 25% of Funding

The WHO has been criticized for a slow initial response to what is now the global coronavirus pandemic, a criticism that in April and again in May, US President Donald Trump jumped on when he promised to halt funding to the organization. Despite the fact that the WHO’s Programme Budget has diverse funding sources, assessed Member contributions remain a key source of financing, and the United States makes up nearly 25 percent of that budget.On July 6, the United States took the first official steps to withdraw from the WHO, however, according to the US joint resolution passed by Congress in 1948, the US must give one year's notice as well as cover as yet unpaid fees, including its 2020 contributions that are listed as unpaid on the WHO website. Assessed contributions are the dues countries pay as WHO members, with the ongoing amount each Member State pays calculated relative to wealth and population.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Millions of Workers Cannot Afford Housing //pt.knoema.com/mrkgimd/united-states-millions-of-workers-cannot-afford-housing 2020-07-15T17:27:20Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Millions of Workers Cannot Afford Housing

The economic downturn spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic further increases the risk of housing instability for millions of low-wage renters in the United States. This new reality exacerbates the already alarming trend in the United States of housing costs outpacing what many workers could afford.According to the Out of Reach 2020 report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the average renter in the United States does not earn enough to afford a modest rental home. Nationally, the average renter’s hourly wage is $18.22, which is $5.74 below the national two-bedroom housing wage and $1.34 below the national one-bedroom housing wage. The average minimum wage worker must work nearly 97 hours per week (more than two full-time jobs) to afford a two-bedroom rental home. People who work 97 hours per week and need 8 hours per day of sleep have fewer than 2.5 hours per day for everything else—commuting, cooking, cleaning, recreation, caring for children and other family members, and serving their community.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States //pt.knoema.com/qfpayve/new-foreign-direct-investment-in-the-united-states 2020-07-09T08:56:29Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States

(9th July 2020) Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish and expand U.S. businesses totaled $194.7 billion (preliminary) in 2019. Expenditures were down 37.7% from $312.5 billion (revised) in 2018.    In 2019, expenditures for acquisitions were $190.7 billion, expenditures to establish new U.S. businesses were $2.5 billion, and expenditures to expand existing foreign-owned businesses were $1.5 billion. Planned total expenditures, which include both first year and planned future expenditures, were $203.6 billion.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US: Mobility Engagement Index //pt.knoema.com/pewuqhd/us-mobility-engagement-index 2020-07-07T13:27:15Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US: Mobility Engagement Index

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Fidelity | Coronavirus Infected Retirement Savings //pt.knoema.com/djxbjyd/fidelity-coronavirus-infected-retirement-savings 2020-06-30T05:30:57Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Fidelity | Coronavirus Infected Retirement Savings

(29 June 2020)  Retirement account balances in the United States generally rise and fall with markets. The COVID-19 period has been no different, leaving open to question how long the recovery period will be for retirement accounts and whether the gains of the last decade be lost before recovery begins.According to Fidelity Investment,  401(k), IRA, and 403(b) retirement account balances dropped by 19%, 14%, and 19%, respectively, in Q1 2020 compared to Q4 2019. As shown below, markets have faired only slightly worse overall.Despite this volatility, retirement savers have not made significant changes to their asset allocations. Contribution rates have also remained steady.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Homebase | US Local Businesses and Hourly Workers Under Pressure from COVID-19 //pt.knoema.com/oqfaivd/homebase-us-local-businesses-and-hourly-workers-under-pressure-from-covid-19 2020-06-26T19:58:37Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Homebase | US Local Businesses and Hourly Workers Under Pressure from COVID-19

(13 April 2020)  The number of unemployed workers in the United States has increased by almost 17 million since mid-March, according to the US Department of Labor, which will push the US unemployment rate into the range of 10% to 15% in April. A closer examination of daily employment data for hourly US workers and the activity of local businesses courtesy of Homebase—which provides employee scheduling and time tracking services—suggests that the situation on the ground could be even worse than official employment figures indicate.In a survey of hourly workers conducted by Homebase, 75% of employees that had work in January 2020 are not working now.Almost 70% of covered local businesses are not operating.Hourly workers, who account for 59% of total US non-farm employment, lose a combined total income of $75 billion each month.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
MIT | Digital Economy is Undervalued by Trillions of Dollars //pt.knoema.com/bpmqktf/mit-digital-economy-is-undervalued-by-trillions-of-dollars 2020-06-25T18:13:50Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
MIT | Digital Economy is Undervalued by Trillions of Dollars

According to research conducted by MIT's Measuring the Economy Project, the digital sector generates billions of dollars of welfare for consumers that is not accounted for in official GDP data. The results of a digital survey conducted by MIT economists showed that the median US consumer would agree to pay about $150 per year to use Wikipedia, which would add over $40 billion to US GDP.  If Wikipedia's ratio between the median price forgone and wealth is applied to other popular digital products, the cumulative wealth generated for US consumers by popular digital services alone could bring in an additional $9 trillion, or over 40% of US GDP. Although these digital products generate wealth for consumers, firms capture only a small fraction of the total value generated. William Nordhaus estimated that firms were able to capture only 2.2 percent of the total surplus generated from technological innovations during the 20th century while the remaining 97.8 percent of the surplus went to consumers. Other examples of these price versus value discrepancies from the MIT survey:Among digital products, survey respondents valued web search engines the most. To retain access to search, the median US consumer would be willing to pay $17,500 per year. This number seems far fetched on a practical level, but the message is clear - consumers derive greater value from digital services than their payment for those services currently suggests.Even paid video-streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, and HBO, could generate a consumer revenue five to 10 times larger than what users pay now to access them.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
China Has Built Up its Digital Muscles //pt.knoema.com/tlnbmw/china-has-built-up-its-digital-muscles 2020-06-24T18:13:21Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
China Has Built Up its Digital Muscles

Digital technologies play an increasingly important role not only in everyday life but also in the global competitiveness of leading countries. According to latest estimates from UNCTAD, the United States continues to have the world’s largest ICT sector, estimated at 5% of GDP or almost $1 trillion. Due to China's rapid economic and ICT investment growth in recent decades, however, the country's digital sector has closed in on the United States' ICT sector. The gap between the two ICT sectors is now just $30 billion in PPP terms.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Retail Sales Surged 17.7% MoM in May //pt.knoema.com/gkbfdad/us-retail-sales-surged-17-7-mom-in-may 2020-06-18T20:21:17Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Retail Sales Surged 17.7% MoM in May

(18 June 2020)  US retail sales spiked to 17.7 percent MoM in May from -14.4 percent in April as the economy began reopening from the COVID-19 induced lockdown. While federal tax payments and unemployment benefits helped to boost sales, in annual terms, retail sales still contracted 6 percent YoY, reflecting the mounting damage caused by the lockdown.The uptick in sales was strongest in the clothing and accessories channel, which grew 188 percent MoM in May. Furniture and home furnishing sales also showed strong growth of 90 percent MoM.The auto sector constitutes around one-fifth of total retail spending and recorded growth of 44 percent MoM. Steep consumer incentive packages offered by motor vehicle manufacturers and dealerships helped support this growth.The reopening of stores and return to work for some also boosted sales for gas station to the tune of 13 percent MoM.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Who Really Made a Mistake on the US Employment Figures? //pt.knoema.com/wktjedf/united-states-who-really-made-a-mistake-on-the-us-employment-figures 2020-06-12T19:39:09Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Who Really Made a Mistake on the US Employment Figures?

(June 07, 2020) The latest US monthly jobs report surprised many analysts. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimated that a record 2.5 million jobs were created in May, while different pools of forecasters had predicted that between 7.5 and 8.3 million jobs would be lost. Based on BLS figures, unemployment decreased to 13.3 percent in May from 14.7 percent in April. At the same time, initial claims continued to increase through May, with the number of people on unemployment benefits close to 20 million, which could point to a bumpy recovery to come.The misclassification error* that is supposed to be fixed by BLS also indicates that the labor market improvement in May is more moderate than reported and forecasters may not have been so far off after all.   * The Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for the monthly jobs reports, said it is working to fix a “misclassification error” and the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the US unemployment rate for May is expected to be about 16.3 percent.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
How America's Low-Income Trap Set the Stage for George Floyd Protests //pt.knoema.com/pljcwjg/how-america-s-low-income-trap-set-the-stage-for-george-floyd-protests 2020-06-10T20:32:19Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
How America's Low-Income Trap Set the Stage for George Floyd Protests

History has shown that social upheavals and political uprisings occurred at the conjunction of a number of events, influences, and conditions. Some factors served as tipping points and triggers while others acted as deep-seated drivers. The recent protests that erupted across the United States in response to the death of George Floyd were not exempt from this rule. Growing discontent brought on by COVID-19 lockdowns, unprecedented unemployment levels, and instances of police brutality, fueled by the spread of messages across social media, became background conditions that triggered the civil unrest which now bears transformative potential in the United States.  These triggers overlay persistent racial inequity and socio-economic inequality that have contributed to what economists refer to as the low-income trap. Following are a few data points to illuminate the reality of the income trap for African Americans in the United States today: Almost one quarter of all African Americans depend on food stamps/SNAP payments—the largest of US welfare programs—compared to a 6% of the White population.Even more striking is the significant difference in educational degree attainment among African Americans and White adults. The discrepancy is the largest at the associate's and bachelor's degree levels, where the gaps in attainment amount to 16 percentage points.African Americans also have a higher prevalence of diseases, a prevalence that appears even in the current pandemic, with a disproportionately high COVID-19 death toll among African Americans. If the data trail is followed, we may see changes appear as the United States seeks ways to address these issues—reducing educational disparities, providing equal rights and opportunities in employment, housing, criminal justice, and improving health care access. Track these data points and more through the data resources we share below.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Stock Market Gains as Labor Market Improves in May 2020 //pt.knoema.com/yuoafj/us-stock-market-gains-as-labor-market-improves-in-may-2020 2020-06-08T13:57:08Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Stock Market Gains as Labor Market Improves in May 2020

(7 June 2020) The US labor market improved in May as millions of workers returned to work after COVID-19 induced layoffs, sending positive reverberations through the US stock market. The labor market added 2.5 million non-farm jobs in May and the unemployment rate decreased to 13.3 percent* from 14.7 April, remaining higher than in any previous post-war recession. The rate would be still higher if it was able to capture the millions of people who are not working and want a job, perhaps not looking for work because of fears relating to coronavirus.The unemployment rate gains were unequal across racial groups. The rate increased marginally for African Americans to 16.8 percent from 16.7 percent in April, while unemployment for whites declined to 12.4 percent from 14.2 percent in April. The stock market surged on 5 June after the jobs report showed surprising improvement. The S&P 500 index rose 2.62 percent Another major Wall Street index, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite—including companies like Amazon, Apple and Microsoft—increased 2.06 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial average gained 829 points to 3.15 percent.The US government has injected around $3 trillion into the economy to mitigate the impact of  the COVID-19 pandemic. The stimulus has been one of the key drivers behind the stock market recovery from its March lows.   * The Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for the monthly jobs reports, said it is working to fix a “misclassification error” and the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the US unemployment rate for May is expected to be about 16.3 percent.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Labor Market Overview, April 2020 //pt.knoema.com/acmaiqe/united-states-labor-market-overview-april-2020 2020-06-04T09:10:22Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
United States: Labor Market Overview, April 2020

(31 May 2020)  The US economy lost 20.5 million non-farm jobs in April, as COVID-19 shutdown the economy and the labor marketing, leading the unemployment rate to skyrocket 14.7 percent, the largest drop in employment since the government started capturing the data. The jobs lost and unemployment rate figures were below the Dow Jones Survey’s expectations of 21.5 million and 16 percent, respectively. To put these figures into perspective, the unemployment rate in April was higher than the post WWII figure of 10.8 percent and the financial crisis peak of 10 percent in October 2009. The rate is, however, still less than experienced during the  Great Depression, estimated at 24.9 percent.   Unemployment Rate by Race The US unemployment rate in April was highest for Hispanics (18.9%), followed by African Americans (16.7%), Asians (14.5%), and whites (14.2%).   Unemployment Rate by Gender The unemployment rate in April for women (16.2%) was nearly three points higher than for men (13.5%), reflecting the prevalence of women in hard-hit hospitality and retail jobs. This was the highest recorded unemployment gap between men and women, followed by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 during which it was men facing the higher unemployment rates.  

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Protests Sweep America in Response to Death of George Floyd //pt.knoema.com/zrmqjw/protests-sweep-america-in-response-to-death-of-george-floyd 2020-06-02T21:25:21Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Protests Sweep America in Response to Death of George Floyd

(Published - 1 June 2020. Data updated - June 2 2020)  We estimate that during the last six days, over 100,000 people across the United States took part in protests in response to the death on 25 May of George Floyd, a black man who was in the custody of law enforcement in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Compare that to the roughly 50,000 who have protested over the last 40 days to demand state officials ease COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, and you get an immediate sense for the inflamed conditions in the United States.   We could point to many possible answers as to "Why?" the nationwide response to this particular crime, at this particular time, but taking a note from the 1992 (Bill) Clinton presidential campaign, at least one factor leaps to mind: "It's the economy, stupid." COVID-19 has been particularly tough on hourly wage earners, among which African Americans are overrepresented. This exacerbation of income inequality during COVID-19 has emerged as well in distorted average earnings figures in the United States, reflecting a spike as low-wage earners are left out of the COVID-19 pandemic economy.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Top Vehicle Manufacturers in the US Market, 1961-2016 //pt.knoema.com/floslle/top-vehicle-manufacturers-in-the-us-market-1961-2016 2020-05-21T20:59:16Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Top Vehicle Manufacturers in the US Market, 1961-2016

Over the last three years, car sales in the US market have set new all-time records and included a collection of manufacturers that extends well beyond the American classics. In 2015, vehicle sales in the US reached nearly 17.5 million units, a growth of 5.7 percent from 2014 and 25,000 more vehicles than the record setting sales in 2005. The year 2000 marked a turning point in the US auto industry: it was the last year that General Motors and Ford Motor Company combined made up at least 50 percent of the US market share. GM’s share of the US market has decreased almost 3 times since its peak of 50.7 percent in 1962, falling to 17 percent in 2016. Ford Motor Company’s market share has likewise fallen but relatively less, from a high of 29.3 percent in 1961 to 14.6 percent in 2016. Asian auto manufacturing giants Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have been behind most of the market erosion of traditional US manufacturers. Toyota was an early mover, capturing American hearts with Lexus, its luxury business model. In 1980, Toyota’s market share was a mere 6.6 percent; by 2009, it reached 16.7 percent. Then, entered Infiniti Nissan, which nearly tripled its market share from 2.8 in 1978 to 8.8 in 2016, somewhat at the expense of Toyota. It is interesting to note the stability of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), which unlike the other American classics, has for 55 years maintained a market position in the range of 10.5 to 13.5 percent.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Rough March as Foreign Investors Sell Off US Treasuries //pt.knoema.com/lotlwjb/united-states-rough-march-as-foreign-investors-sell-off-us-treasuries 2020-05-21T06:32:14Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Rough March as Foreign Investors Sell Off US Treasuries

Foreign holdings of US treasury bonds collapsed by a record $257 billion in March as liquidity constraints and the specter of COVID-19 affected foreign investors' portfolio decisions. Saudi Arabia, the largest seller of US treasuries in March, decreased its holdings of US government debt by $25 billion, according to the US Treasury Department. The oil market crisis significantly reduced the inflow of US dollars and forced the Kingdom to sell its most liquid assets.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
NEXAR | US Driving Trends Reflect Relaxation of COVID-19 Restrictions //pt.knoema.com/pgdzkj/nexar-us-driving-trends-reflect-relaxation-of-covid-19-restrictions 2020-05-20T19:28:26Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
NEXAR | US Driving Trends Reflect Relaxation of COVID-19 Restrictions

(20 May 2020)  In recent weeks, drivers have returned to the roads across the United States as states have increasingly relaxed social distancing guidelines. As of the week starting May 11, driving activity measured as the number of miles per commuter topped the pre COVID-19 peak (different for each state) for two US states, and in 14 US states driving activity increased to 80% or more of the pre-COVID driving levels, according to Nexar.It's some of the hardest hit US states, including New York, New Mexico and Nebraska, where driving activity continues to stay relatively subdued.Driving activity in most of the largest US cities has also not fully recovered, which tells us that rural areas and small cities are relaxing lockdown measures faster compared to large urban centers. According to Nexar Driver Trends statistics, however, driving activity in about a dozen large US cities will rebound in the next 3-4 weeks.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: The Unexplained Burden of COVID-19 Mortality by Racial Group //pt.knoema.com/jyashtf/united-states-the-unexplained-burden-of-covid-19-mortality-by-racial-group 2020-05-19T19:42:33Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: The Unexplained Burden of COVID-19 Mortality by Racial Group

COVID-19 death rates across the US demonstrate an interesting truth, with yet to be fully understood cause(s) as to how the pandemic has spread in the US: race matters. The black or African American population constitutes about 9% of the population* of Kansas and roughly 33% of the state’s COVID-19 deathsIn Arizona, American Indians represent only 2% of the population and almost 25% of those who died from COVID-19 in the state. Unfortunately for the US (and the world) in terms of gaining control over this pandemic, race also does not matter, or not as you might expect if you stop short with the two example data points above and CDC analysis linking COVID-19 mortality rates and unequal economic and social conditions that may isolate people from the resources needed to respond to the outbreak. Intuitively the CDC's linkages make sense. And, yet, the data is telling a more complicated story. Take a look at the data for a few other states - Florida, Minnesota, Ohio. COVID-19 deaths among the white populations of these states are disproportionately high compared compared to the share of whites in these states populations and despite the fact that the whites in those states enjoy better relative economic and social conditions. This points not only to the importance of other factors that affect the distribution of deaths but also to persistent questions about how cases and deaths are tallied across the United States and globally.   Methodology Note: In the charts below, the 'weighted' population figures were calculated using population by race in each state weighted by the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the state to ensure that the population estimates and percentages of COVID-19 deaths represent comparable geographic areas.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Rig Counts Growth Declined in April //pt.knoema.com/xxetolc/rig-counts-growth-declined-in-april 2020-05-19T09:47:42Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Rig Counts Growth Declined in April

(18th May 2020). The overall US rig count declined to 566 units, 44% YoY, 26% MoM, in April from 771 in March. As the operators abandoned drilling plans amid the historic plunge in oil prices, demand shock due lockdown of the economy and limited storage capacity. The rig count for OPEC countries declined 2.77% YoY compared the decline of 35.33% YoY in Non-OPEC countries in April.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Manufacturing PMI Plummeted in April //pt.knoema.com/umjxyfg/us-manufacturing-pmi-plummeted-in-april 2020-05-07T02:22:01Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Manufacturing PMI Plummeted in April

(6 May 2020)  The US manufacturing PMI plummeted to 41.5 in April 2020, the lowest level in 11 years. New orders experienced the largest single-month drop since 1950 to 27.1 (from 42.2 in March) while production fell sharply to 27.5 (from 47.5 in March). The US employment index also declined, reflecting around 30 million claims for unemployment benefits over the last few weeks. Out of 18 industries, 16 have reported decline; only the paper and food products industries showed growth in April.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Global Oil Market Imbalance | Overview of countries on either side //pt.knoema.com/bcobhm/global-oil-market-imbalance-overview-of-countries-on-either-side 2020-04-20T20:46:53Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Global Oil Market Imbalance | Overview of countries on either side

Global oil production remains strong even as some leading industry forecasts suggest that global economic conditions will override low global oil prices to constrain oil demand growth this year.Some leading OPEC producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, are producing at or near record levels, largely offsetting production declines from several OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Many of these OPEC members have relatively low operating costs or are on the upside of years of development to bring online new production and thus may not reduce production in the face of the oil price slump to retain their market shares.In contrast, other major producers, such as Mexico, Nigeria, the United States, and Venezuela, are seeing global oil prices fall below their break-even prices. These producers are working to reign in production costs, manage declining production in major producing fields, and/or expedite rationalization of their domestic industry, spurred by the boom-bust cycle of the market, under investment, and internal regulatory reforms.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Interest Rates //pt.knoema.com/yhlagm/us-interest-rates 2020-04-20T17:45:52Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
US Interest Rates

(16 March 2020)  On Sunday, in anticipation of the dire potential effects of the coronavirus on the US economy, the US Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rates to near zero. In addition to the one-percentage-point rate cut decrease—the second emergency rate cut so far this month—the Fed:Cut reserve requirements for 1000s of banks to zero;Announced a $700 billion quantitative easing program ($500 billion of Treasurys, $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities) that will be launched Monday with an initial a $40 billion in asset purchases;Decreased the emergency lending rate at the discount window by 125 basis points to 0.25% in addition to lengthening and loan terms to 90 days; andCoordinated with several central banks globally, including the Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland as well as the European Central Bank, to execute existing dollar swap arrangements to enhance the liquidity of the US dollar globally. All eyes now turn to market response, consumer confidence, and other leading indicators to assess the depth of the economic weakness in the United States as the coronavirus remains as yet unchecked.

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
United States: COVID-19 Projections from IHME //pt.knoema.com/ikocwic/united-states-covid-19-projections-from-ihme 2020-04-20T14:38:37Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: COVID-19 Projections from IHME

(1 April 2020)  The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to peak in the United States no earlier than April 15, 2020, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). By the end of the pandemic—expected in early August, 2020—more than 80,000 people in the United States will have died from COVID-19. The United States is on track for a shortage of about 85,000 hospital beds at the height of the pandemic, with an intensive care unit bed shortage of almost 20,000 beds.With almost 16,000 deaths from COVID-19, New York is expected to suffer the most fatalities among all US states.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Population by Age and Generation in 2020 //pt.knoema.com/egyydzc/us-population-by-age-and-generation-in-2020 2020-04-16T08:30:06Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US Population by Age and Generation in 2020

Gen-Z has overtaken Millennials by nearly 4 million to become the largest generation in the United States. Baby Boomers are the third-largest generation with the population of 69 million persons in 2020. With a current population of around 86 million, the Gen-Z generation is expected to grow to 88 million over the next 20 years because of migration, according to the United Nations' latest World Population Prospects. The boundaries that define generations are not universally agreed, and yet these boundaries carry important implications in business and government. The size, financial security, and general health of each generation shapes everything from marketing campaigns to insurance and social welfare benefits to transportation and health services planning. According to the Pew Research Center, the oldest Millenial was born in 1981 while the youngest was born in 1997.Synchrony Financial uses much lower boundaries, defining the Millenial generation as those born from 1976 through 1992.Considering still other definitions, the birth year of the oldest Millenial varies from 1976 to 1986 while the birth year of the youngest ranges from 1993 to 2010.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
US COVID-19 Cases Spread From Coastal Zones, Urban Centers //pt.knoema.com/djbmdyc/us-covid-19-cases-spread-from-coastal-zones-urban-centers 2020-04-12T10:35:13Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US COVID-19 Cases Spread From Coastal Zones, Urban Centers

International commerce and traffic through US east and west coasts acutely and rapidly escalated COVID-19 case volume, while high population urban centers are likewise now hot beds for the virus to spread, given higher population density, use of public transport, and other related factors. Look at the relatively dark colors in Austin, Dallas, in Houston, Texas (Travis, Dallas, and Harris counties, respectively), as well as Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin (Milwaukee and Dane counties). Urban centers in the United States, just as Italy tried to warn the world, are also transmitters as people exit the city and return to more rural areas. Look at Seattle: As cases ticked up, residents with means traveled to family and second homes in Sun Valley, Idaho (Blaine County) and brought the virus with, bringing normal activity to an abrupt halt for its citizens. For that reason, government officials yesterday urged all people leaving New York City self-quarantine for 14 days.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Moving Toward Economic Recession in 2019? //pt.knoema.com/wykvrtb/united-states-moving-toward-economic-recession-in-2019 2020-04-05T10:59:20Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Moving Toward Economic Recession in 2019?

(Aug. 22, 2018) One could argue that in a world subject to the inevitability of business cycles, the United States is overdue for a recession. During the 60 year period from 1950 to 2010, the US economy experienced 10 recessions, averaging one recession every six years. In contrast, the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth was just shy of 10 years. The US is now in the midst of nine years of economic growth with the last "Great Recession" a fading memory for some. Will 2019 bring recession to the US?With the potential exceptions of asset prices and the yield curve—now at its lowest level since the last recession—standard leading indicators of economic recession paint a picture of a relatively strong US economy.Economists and investors have good cause, however, to reevaluate the predictive value of standard indicators based on the economic transformation and policy patterns of modern economies. For example, monetary policies, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, can distort the yield curve—the rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills—and potentially diminish the value of the spread as a stand-alone indicator of recession. Researchers globally continue to seek new indicators of economic strength. The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis has found that racial unemployment rate gaps are narrowest immediately preceding a recession, while researchers at the Central Bank of Norway have shown that residential investment has greater predictive value than stock returns, among other indicators.  In today's Viz of the Day, we visualize some of the current standard economic indicators so that you can evaluate the same information used by policymakers and investors to estimate the health of the US economy. Interested in learning more about economic recessions globally? You may also enjoy, 40 Years in Financial Crises.  

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID-Induced Shortages of ICU Beds By US State //pt.knoema.com/torahmg/covid-induced-shortages-of-icu-beds-by-us-state 2020-04-03T18:25:51Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
COVID-Induced Shortages of ICU Beds By US State

The United States will face a shortage of more than 18,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the expected peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). A comparison at the US state level between the number of ICU beds that exist and the projected need for ICU beds during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that New York will face the most severe shortage to the tune of 8,000 ICU beds during the peak of the outbreak.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Which US States are Small Business Friendly? //pt.knoema.com/xqltbz/which-us-states-are-small-business-friendly 2020-04-02T19:44:44Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Which US States are Small Business Friendly?

Small businesses in the United States are engines of the American economy, employing nearly 20 percent of Americans. So, what makes one state more small-business friendly than another? The results are in from the Thumbtack Small Business Survey—the largest continuous study of small business perceptions of government policy in the US—and may even surprise you if you associate big cities and large population centers with small business opportunity.    #1 South Dakota. Spanning geography and climate, the most friendly states were South Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, Michigan, and Utah, all earning an overall A+. South Dakota shot to the top of the rankings in 2018 with a top score in all categories except ease of hiring (graded a D) and starting a business (B-), no doubt impeded by its relatively small, rural population base.    #42 New York. A surprise for some, New York ranked 42nd in this year's survey, with hiring (graded C+), tax code (F), and government websites (F) lowering its friendliness profile.   #50 Illinois. One state had to be last, but in the case of Illinois, which scored six Fs, two Ds, and one B (ease of hiring), clearly some states have much further to go than others to improve the business climate from the perspective of the small business owners.   The 2018 survey results are based on the responses of 7,500 small business owners in 50 states and 57 cities who answered questions about the policies of their states and cities toward small business, as well as the overall level of support in their community. The survey included: the ease of starting a business, ease of hiring, regulatory burdens, and available training and networking opportunities for business owners. Visit Thumbtack for more details on the survey. Explore the Thumbtack Small Business Survey findings below by selecting a state of interest and a survey category.  

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Higher Education Costs Flat in 2018 //pt.knoema.com/ydoipxb/united-states-higher-education-costs-flat-in-2018 2020-03-27T19:02:56Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
United States: Higher Education Costs Flat in 2018

In 2018, not only did tuition rates for US higher education hold relatively flat, but US state and local government spending on higher education grew in line with inflation for a total contribution of $99 billion, according to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association. Government funding for higher education tumbled in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, but has since rebounded, growing approximately 20 percent in the last 5 years.   Some would argue that while these trends are positive, they are not enough. With an increasing focus on affordable higher education, the question then becomes one of how to protect funding for education and/or identifying additional streams of funding that can help offset tuition fees, for the greater good of the students and the US economy.US post-secondary education remains costly, pushing students to rely on education loans. In 27 states—out of 50 states and the District of Colombia—public higher education finances depend more on tuition (paid by the student) than government educational appropriations.The cost of education has direct economic costs as well. In the US, earnings depend significantly on educational achievement. An advanced degree will earn you nearly twice your peer without the degree, and yet while the share of Americans with a degree is increasing, only about 40 percent of US adults currently hold a post-secondary degree (associate, bachelor, or graduate).

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Coronavirus Pandemic By U.S. County //pt.knoema.com/cgpiog/coronavirus-pandemic-by-u-s-county 2020-03-26T18:55:08Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Coronavirus Pandemic By U.S. County

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
United States: Yield Curve and Periods of Economic Recession //pt.knoema.com/kvseyvd/united-states-yield-curve-and-periods-of-economic-recession 2020-03-19T23:13:24Z Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
United States: Yield Curve and Periods of Economic Recession

The yield spread, i.e. the difference between long term and short term interest rates, has been a good indicator historically of possible future recession. A flattening and then inversion of the spread has correctly predicted the seven US recessions since the 1960s. The question you may have is "why".   Central Banks use monetary policy to influence economic activity. When central banks face tradeoffs between rising inflation and slowing economic growth and chose the latter, the banks push up the short term interest rates. As a result, spending declines in the interest-rate sensitive components of the economy, such as business capital spending, residential development, and consumer durables (especially automobiles). This in turn slows economic activity.    The challenge is how far to adjust interest rates to get the desired effect on economic activity and keep inflation within the target range. A miscalculation risks recession on the one hand and markets factoring a future correction (in the form of short term rate reduction) and lower inflation in the long term interest rate outlook. These two factors together push the long term interest rate lower than the short term interest rate. And, that is how the yield curve spread gains its predictive potential.   Evolving economic dynamics around the globe could potentially weaken the predictive power of the spread. Central banks have been buying long term bonds since the 2008-09 financial crisis to artificially depress the long term interest rate. This is a new trend for banks. These actions have also contributed to lower long term bond yields. When we look, however, to the spread between the 10 year and 2 year US Treasury yields, no inversion has materialized yet,  suggesting that if despite these new trends we still consider the spread as a good predictive indicator, recession may still be sometime off.

Ellen Goodwin pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1593850
Something Has Gone Wrong with US Unemployment Estimates //pt.knoema.com/scutxxg/something-has-gone-wrong-with-us-unemployment-estimates 2020-03-19T20:15:53Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
Something Has Gone Wrong with US Unemployment Estimates

An economic concept known as Okun’s Law—which explains the relationship between rates of unemployment and GDP growth—has held true for all US economic downturns and recoveries since 1948. However, we discovered a major discrepancy for the recovery period after the Great Recession of 2008, where Okun’s Law failed to explain the drop in the US unemployment rate as reported by the US government. This means the US labor market might not be as strong as numbers suggest, and considering central banks use Okun’s Law to help set monetary policy, this discrepancy could have major consequences.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Unemployment Rate //pt.knoema.com/gmrmcjc/us-unemployment-rate 2020-03-19T20:14:45Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Unemployment Rate

(March 2018)  The US unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point in March compared to the previous month, reaching 5 percent, or about 8 million people. Many Americans consider a reduction of the unemployment rate to be one of the highest-priority socio economic issues. As economists point out, however, there is a natural or normal rate of unemployment that signals stable prices in a well-functioning economy and the US has little margin at present. The current natural unemployment rate is estimated at 4.8 percent, which is only slightly less that the current actual unemployment rate. Since the same time last year, the unemployment rate has decreased by 0.5 percentage points. The decline occurred at a lower pace, however, than during the 2014 to 2015 period.The current unemployment rate is now half its peak of 10 percent, recorded at the end of 2007-2009 global financial crisis.Among US states, Alaska has the highest unemployment rate (6.6%) and South Dakota the lowest (2.7%). California, which accounts for 13 percent of US GDP, reported an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent as of February 2016. Other employment figures of note:Employment expanded by 246,000 people during March to 151.3 million. This represents a 2.01 percent annual growth rate and exceeds the growth rate during 2014-2015.The employment to population ratio, however, changed little from the previous year due to the 1.07 percent increase in the US population, cancelling out the employment gain.In March, the civilian labor force—representing the sum of unemployed and employed—was 159.3 million, or about 2.4 million more than in March 2015. The overall labor force participation rate grew by 0.1 percentage point, continuing its upward trend that started in September 2015.The share of long-term unemployed, or those who cannot find job for 27 weeks and over, decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to February, and now constitutes 27.6 percent of total unemployment. The same cannot be said about March figures for involuntary part-time employment: the number of individuals who wanted full-time work but could find only a part-time job rose by 2.3 percent to 6.1 million. In addition, even though the current level of part-time employment continues to trend downwards, it remains historically high.

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Retail Sales, Sept 2019 //pt.knoema.com/buvjjcd/us-retail-sales-sept-2019 2020-03-04T21:16:14Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Retail Sales, Sept 2019

US Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in September 2019 Contrary to market expectations, US retail sales contracted 0.32 percent MoM in seasonally adjusted terms in September compared to growth of 0.63 percent MoM in August. In annual terms, retail sales grew 4.1 percent YoY in September. The decline in retail sales was mainly driven by contraction in automobile and gasoline sales. Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales otherwise remained flat in September on MoM basis. The contraction in the retail sales coupled with moderation in job growth reflects subdued consumer spending. This could be a signal that manufacturing weakness has started to spread more broadly across the US economy. The trade war between the US and China—which led to decline in business investment and fears of recession—have made consumers more cautious. It will be worth watching development in this trend over the next few months as consumer spending accounts for 68 percent of the US economy.   Spending in Seven of the Thirteen Major Categories of Retail Sales Decreased in September  Auto retail sales contracted 0.9 percent MoM in September compared to 1.9 percent growth in August. This trend is especially noteworthy given tat buyers benefited from lower lending rates.Gasoline station sales declined 0.7 percent MoM (-1.3 percent in August).Building materials sales fell 1 percent MoM (+2.3 percent in August).Nonstore retail sales, a measure of online shopping, shrank 0.3 percent MoM (+1.2 percent in August).General merchandise store sales contracted 0.3 percent MoM (-0.2 percent in August). Select Sectors Remained Strong.  Sales in apparel, health and personal care, and furniture and home furnishings, all grew in September.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
USA Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization //pt.knoema.com/dbqfymg/usa-industrial-production-and-capacity-utilization 2020-02-28T20:03:38Z Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
USA Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Misha Gusev pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1000560
US Construction Spending Drops Unexpectedly, December 2018 //pt.knoema.com/htgwcwc/us-construction-spending-drops-unexpectedly-december-2018 2020-01-21T23:31:55Z Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
US Construction Spending Drops Unexpectedly, December 2018

The US economy has lost momentum at the end of 2018 as stimulus from tax cuts and increased government spending fades while trade tension between the US and China and slowing global economies act as drag. The fall in construction spending is another signal of slowing domestic economy. Construction spending in the US has fallen by 0.6% in December 2018 as investment in private and public projects has also declined to the surprise of market analysts. Economists polled by Reuters and MarketWatch had forecasted construction spending rising 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Spending on private construction fell by 0.6% after surging 1.3% in November. The housing market has been weighed down by higher mortgage rates, expensive building materials, and labor shortages. Residential spending has fallen by 1.4%; nonresidential spending has not changed significantly.

Nematullah Khan pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1975840
Small Business Optimism Rebounding After 5-Month Decline //pt.knoema.com/ovpsayc/small-business-optimism-rebounding-after-5-month-decline 2020-01-15T02:59:02Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Small Business Optimism Rebounding After 5-Month Decline

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 0.5 points in February to 101.7, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), ending a 5-month decline during which the index tumbled to the lowest level since US President Trump took office. The decline of small business optimism was amid overall growing economic uncertainty and the partial US government shutdown and tracked with a declining consumer confidence index.As compared to the previous month, more US small business* owners expressed confidence about future business conditions and planned capital outlays. Owners also said that it is a good time to expand. Interesting responses given that earning trends weakened.The Small Business Optimism Index is composed of 10 equally weighted and seasonally adjusted variables from the NFIB monthly member survey that covers topics ranging from outlook, earnings, and sales to investment and credit conditions. Small business is important business in the United States. According to the US Census Bureau, of the 5.9 million US companies in 2015, 3.6 million had fewer than five employees and employed a combined 5.9 million people, or about 5 percent of total US employment.Sentiment and economic importance of small business is uneven geographically, a point that will likely resurface when the US 2020 presidential election campaigning begins in earnest. Learn more about which states are considered small-business friendly. * According to the US Small Business Association's size standards, 'small business' varies by industry, but for most, a business is defined as small if it employs less than 500 employees or earns less than $7.5 million a year. Most small firms work in professional, scientific and technical services, construction, retail trade, and health care.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Livestock Statistics: Yield, United States //pt.knoema.com/rgrvbv/livestock-statistics-yield-united-states 2020-01-02T15:24:06Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Livestock Statistics: Yield, United States

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Pedestrian Fatalities Across the US //pt.knoema.com/pnrmscf/pedestrian-fatalities-across-the-us 2019-12-29T17:29:48Z Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910
Pedestrian Fatalities Across the US

Among US states, California is the deadliest in terms of pedestrian fatalities. In 2016, 867 pedestrians were killed in road accidents in California. Texas and Florida have the next largest pedestrian death toll. But these three states also have the highest populations, so it is natural that they have more intense road traffic and correspondingly more road accidents and fatal outcomes. Accouting for population, the most dangerous states for pedestrians are New Mexico and Florida.   Read more about the increasing contribution of SUVs to the pedestrian death toll in the United States.

Alex Kulikov pt.knoema.com://pt.knoema.com/user/1847910