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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusted data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
Logistic transformation procedure as follows:
The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
Seasonally Adjusted Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100.
Household Debt Reaches New Peak Driven by Gains in Mortgage, Auto, and Student DebtThe CMD’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit reveals that total household debt rose by $114 billion (0.9 percent) to $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. There were modest increases in mortgage, auto, and credit card debt (increasing by 0.7 percent, 2 percent, and 2.6 percent respectively), no change to student loan debt, and a decline in home equity lines of credit (which fell by 0.9 percent). Flows of credit card balances into both early and serious delinquencies climbed for the third straight quarter—a trend not seen since 2009. Total household indebtedness- Aggregate household debt balances rose to a new peak in the second quarter of 2017. As of June 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.84 trillion, a $114 billion (0.9%) increase from the first quarter of 2017. This increase put overall household debt $164 billion above its peak in the third quarter of 2008, and 15.1 percent above its trough in the second quarter of 2013.
Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, which stood at $8.69 trillion as of June 30, saw a $64 billion uptick from the first quarter of 2017.
Balances on home equity lines of credit(HELOC) were roughly flat, and now stand at $452 billion.
Non-housing debtrose in the second quarter, with increases of $23 billion in auto loans and $20 billion in credit cards; student loan balances were roughly flat.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) provides timely and comprehensive information about consumer expectations through three broad categories: inflation, labour market and household finance. The SCE contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.
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