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The BP Energy Outlook evaluates different aspects of the energy transition and highlights key issues and uncertainties of the transition. In all the scenarios considered, world GDP more than doubles by 2040, driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing developing economies.

In the 'evolving transition' scenario this improvement in living standards causes energy demand to increase by around a third over the outlook period, driven by India, China, and 'Other Asia,' which together account for two-thirds of the increase. Despite this increase in energy demand, around two-thirds of the world’s population in 2040 still live in countries where average energy consumption per head is relatively low, highlighting the need for ‘more energy’.

The world continues to electrify, with around three-quarters of the increase in primary energy absorbed by the power sector. Other projections covered by the Energy Outlook to 2040:

  • Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of energy, contributing half of the growth in global energy supplies and becoming the largest source of power by 2040.
  • Demand for oil and other liquid fuels grows for the first part of the outlook period before gradually plateauing. The increase in liquids production is initially dominated by US tight oil, but OPEC production subsequently increases as US tight oil production declines.
  • Natural gas grows robustly, supported by broad-based demand and the increasing availability of gas, aided by the continuing expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
  • Global coal consumption is broadly flat, with decreases in Chinese and OECD consumption offset by increases in India and Other Asia.

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2040, February 2019

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