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Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 157 Countries Worldwide-1999 to 2013.
Source:Mai Hassan CNMS, University of Marburg and Friedrich Schneider Johannes Kepler University of Linz and IZA (Discussion Paper No. 10281 October 2016)
The shadow economies have been estimated on the basis of MIMIC models. Different MIMIC models have been constructed and used models which have high significance levels. There are two categories of the models are given below, with reduced samples and without reduced samples, Adjusted and Non-adjusted.
MIMIC estimation of the size of the shadow economy from 1999 to 2013MIMIC estimation of the size of the shadow economy from 1999 to 2013,yearly
data for the reduced sampleVariables/spec
MIMIC 2MIMIC 3MIMIC 1MIMIC 2MIMIC 35-1-34-1-34-1-26-1-25-1-24-1-2Causes Tax burden0.15**0.15**0.15*0.08*0.08*0.07*-2.07-2.07-2.06-1.7-1.7-1.7Regulatory burden0.29***0.29***0.29***0.26***0.26***0.24***-2.74-2.74-2.73-3.04-3.04-2.82Unemployment rate0.53***0.53***0.52***0.43***0.43***0.41***(first difference)-2.87-2.87-2.86-3.27-3.27-3.03Self-employment rate 0.12**0.10**0.10**(first difference) -2.2-2.2-2.14Economic Freedom-0.09*-0.10*-0.09**-0.06*-0.06*_____Index(-1.90)(-1.97)(-1.93)(-1.66)(-1.74) (first difference) Business freedom-0.007_________-0.01_________Index(-0.19) (-0.38) (first difference) Indicators GDP growth-1***-1***-1***-1***-1***-1***(-2.62)(-2.97)-2.55(-3.34)(-3.33)(-3.08)Currency0.09**0.09**0.09***0.11***0.11**0.10***(first difference)-2.49-2.49-2.55 Labor force rate-0.02-0.02____ (first difference)(-0.54)(-0.55) Fit Statistics Chi^2 (pvalue)12.1211.465.449.939.663.44-0.277-0.1768-0.1423-0.0773-0.0465-0.3282GFI0.940.940.970.960.960.98CFI0.9880.9720.9850.9750.9730.995CD0.4610.460.4380.3250.3240.283RMSEA0.010.0140.0190.0250.0290.01Degrees of freedom352720352720Number of219821982198163816381638observations Number of countries157157157117117117Notes: Absolute z-statistics are reported in parenthesis. *, **, *** denote significance at 10, 5 and 1% significance levels. Goodnessof fit index (GFI): values closer to 0.90 reflect a perfect fit. CFI: when the comparative fit index is closer to one, it indicates a goodmodel fit. SRMR: The values less than 0.08 indicate a good model fit. Coefficient of Determination (CD): A perfect fit corresponds toa CD=1 (Kline, 2011). Degrees of freedom=0.5(p+q)(p+q+1)-t, where p:number of causes, q=number of indicators, t=number of free parameters.
The calculation of the size and development of the shadow economy is done with the MIMIC (Multiple Indicators and Multiple Courses) estimation procedure. Using the MIMIC estimation procedure one gets only relative values and one needs other methods like the currency demand approach or the income discrepancy method, to calibrate the MIMIC values into absolute ones. The calculated values for 2014 are projections for some countries, for 2015 they are projections for all countries, based on the forecasts of the official figures (GDP, unemployment, etc.) of these countries.