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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusted data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.Logistic transformation procedure as follows:The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:X = log(p/(1-p))The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:adjX = X - seasonal factorThe result is then transformed using the following equation:Seasonally Adjusted Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) provides timely and comprehensive information about consumer expectations through three broad categories: inflation, labour market and household finance. The SCE contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.
Household Debt Reaches New Peak Driven by Gains in Mortgage, Auto, and Student DebtThe CMD’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit reveals that total household debt achieved a new peak in the first quarter of 2017, rising by $149 billion to $12.73 trillion—$50 billion above the previous peak reached in the third quarter of 2008. Balances climbed in several areas: mortgages, 1.7 percent; auto loans, 0.9 percent; and student loans, 2.6 percent. Credit card balances fell 1.9 percent this quarter.Total household indebtedness stood at $12.73 trillion as of March 31, 2017, marking a $149 billion or 1.2 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2016. This increase put overall household debt $50 billion above its previous peak set in the third quarter of 2008 and 14.1 percent above the trough set in the second quarter of 2013.Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, reached $8.63 trillion as of March 31, a $147 billion uptick from the fourth quarter of 2016.Balances on home equity lines of credit fell slightly in the first quarter, down $17 billion to $456 billion.Non-housing debt saw mixed changes—an increase of $10 billion in auto loans and $34 billion in student loan balances, and a $15 billion drop in credit card balances.