Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC
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Acesso em 15 novembro, 2018
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Oil Supply and Demand: OPEC estimates and projections, November 2018
Balance=OPEC crude oil production-Difference (a-b)
Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.
World oil Demand:
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.50 mb/d y-o-y, a downward revision from the
previous month of 40 tb/d, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, China during 3Q18. Expected total oil demand for the year is anticipated to reach
98.79 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to grow by 1.29 mb/d y-o-y, about 70 tb/d lower
than last month’s projection, with total world consumption to reach 100.08 mb/d. The OECD region will
contribute positively to oil demand growth, increasing by 0.25 mb/d y-o-y, while the non-OECD region is
assumed to see larger growth by 1.04 mb/d in 2019.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 is estimated at 2.31 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.09 mb/d from the
previous month’s assessment. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan and Russia are expected to be the main drivers
for this growth, while Mexico, Norway, Vietnam and China are expected to show the largest declines. With
this, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.86 mb/d. In 2019, non-OPEC oil supply growth
was revised up by 0.12 mb/d from the previous month, forecast to stand at 2.23 mb/d and is now projected to reach an average of 62.09 mb/d. The upward revision comes despite a downward adjustment for oil supply
in Canada, China, Brazil and Mexico. The US, Brazil, Canada and the UK are expected to be the main
growth drivers, while Mexico, Norway, Vietnam and Indonesia are still expected to see the sizeable declines.
OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.10 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.34 mb/d and
6.45 mb/d, respectively. In October, OPEC crude oil production increased by 127 tb/d to average
32.90 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
The global economic growth forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 3.7%, while the 2019 forecast was
revised down slightly by 0.1 percentage point (pp) to now stand at 3.5%, on the back of a slowing dynamic
amid rising trade tensions, monetary tightening, particularly in the US, and mounting challenges in emerging
markets and developing economies. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed to be unchanged at 2.9% in
2018, but was revised slightly upward to 2.6% in 2019. Euro-zone growth was revised down to 1.9% for 2018
and to 1.7% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan remains at 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019 each. In the non-OECD
countries, both India’s and China’s growth forecasts were revised slightly downward to 7.5% and 6.5% for
2018, respectively, and lowered to 7.2% and 6.1%, respectively, for 2019. Growth in Brazil remains
unchanged at 1.1% in 2018 and at 1.8% in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also unchanged at 1.6%
in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.